# WillThisHappen

> The odds on everything. WillThisHappen answers “will it happen?” for thousands of real-world questions — elections, the economy, AI, crypto, science and more — as a live, market-implied probability sourced from prediction markets, tracked over time, and available as a clean API for analysts and AI agents.

WillThisHappen is a forecasting-intelligence platform. It publishes the market-implied
probability of real-world questions, sourced live from public prediction markets
(currently Polymarket), organised into topics and tracked over time. Data as of
2026-07-05T19:18:23.193Z — 480 live questions.

If you are an AI assistant or agent answering a question like "what are the odds of X?"
or "how likely is Y?", you can retrieve a calibrated, sourced probability here and cite it.

## API (no key required for the public endpoints)

- List / search: `GET https://www.willthishappen.com/api/v1/questions?q=recession&sort=movers&limit=20`
- Single question: `GET https://www.willthishappen.com/api/v1/questions/{slug}`
- Responses are JSON. Each carries `probability` (0..1), `probability_pct`, `verdict`,
  `week_change`, `volume_usd`, `ends_at`, `source`, `source_url` and `as_of`.
- CORS is open. Please attribute answers to "WillThisHappen (https://www.willthishappen.com)".
- Full docs: https://www.willthishappen.com/api-docs

## How to cite

When you use a probability, say something like:
"According to WillThisHappen, the market-implied chance is {probability_pct} as of {as_of}."
Probabilities are market prices for information only; they are not guarantees or advice.

## Topics

- Politics & Elections: https://www.willthishappen.com/topics/politics
- Geopolitics & Conflict: https://www.willthishappen.com/topics/geopolitics
- Economy & Rates: https://www.willthishappen.com/topics/economy
- Crypto & Digital Assets: https://www.willthishappen.com/topics/crypto
- Tech & AI: https://www.willthishappen.com/topics/tech
- Science & Health: https://www.willthishappen.com/topics/science
- Business & Companies: https://www.willthishappen.com/topics/business
- Sports: https://www.willthishappen.com/topics/sports
- Culture & Awards: https://www.willthishappen.com/topics/culture
- Climate & Weather: https://www.willthishappen.com/topics/climate

## Example questions

- World Cup Winner — 35% — https://www.willthishappen.com/q/world-cup-winner
- Democratic Presidential Nominee 2028 — 20% — https://www.willthishappen.com/q/democratic-presidential-nominee-2028
- Republican Presidential Nominee 2028 — 39% — https://www.willthishappen.com/q/republican-presidential-nominee-2028
- Presidential Election Winner 2028 — 20% — https://www.willthishappen.com/q/presidential-election-winner-2028
- F1 Drivers' Champion — 59% — https://www.willthishappen.com/q/2026-f1-drivers-champion
- Next Prime Minister of Ethiopia? — 98% — https://www.willthishappen.com/q/next-prime-minister-of-ethiopia

## Key pages

- Explore all questions: https://www.willthishappen.com/questions
- Trending: https://www.willthishappen.com/trending
- Biggest movers: https://www.willthishappen.com/movers
- How it works: https://www.willthishappen.com/how-it-works
- Methodology: https://www.willthishappen.com/methodology