A bellwether reads the flock. WillThisHappen reads the market.

The best forecast for most questions isn't a pundit's hunch or a single poll. It's the price on a market where thousands of people are putting real money behind what they believe will happen. That price is a probability — and it's often sharper, faster and better-calibrated than anything else available.

The problem is that this signal is scattered, jargon-heavy and hard to follow over time. WillThisHappen fixes that. We take live prediction-market prices, phrase them as plain questions, sort them into topics, track how they move, and make every one of them available as a clean API.

What we believe

• A number beats a narrative. One calibrated probability tells you more than a page of punditry.
• Honesty about uncertainty. We show freshness, sources and the fact that markets can be wrong. We never fabricate a figure.
• Built for the agentic web. When a person or an AI asks "what are the odds of X?", the answer should be one sourced number — reachable by a browser or an API call.

The name

A bellwether is the lead sheep whose bell tells the shepherd where the flock is heading — a leading indicator. A wren is small, sharp and everywhere. WillThisHappen is meant to be both: a small, sharp instrument for reading where things are heading.

Where the data comes from

Today WillThisHappensources its probabilities from Polymarket's public data and is built to add more venues over time. Read the full methodology for exactly how the numbers are produced.