Biggest movers
Where minds are changing
Probabilities that shifted the most over the past 7 days. A big move is the market telling you new information has arrived — often before it reaches the news.
Odds as of Jul 5, 2026 · sourced from Polymarket
▲ Rising
Sports+95 pts
British Grand Prix: Driver Winner
Charles Leclerc
100%
Lewis Hamilton
0%
Pierre Gasly
0%
22 outcomes$1.1M vol
Crypto+39 pts
What price will Lighter hit in 2026?
↑ $3
63%
↑ $4
32%
↑ $6
14%
5 outcomes$728K vol
Sports+38 pts
NBA: LeBron James Next Team
Cleveland Cavaliers
62%
Golden State Warriors
18%
Philadelphia 76ers
7%
24 outcomes$12.1M vol
Culture+36 pts
Elon Musk # tweets June 30 - July 7, 2026?
100-119
37%
120-139
35%
140-159
16%
22 outcomes$2.6M vol
Sports+36 pts
World Cup: Top Scorer (Nation)
France
69%
Argentina
19%
Norway
6%
14 outcomes$1.1M vol
Culture+31 pts
Which artists will release new albums in 2026?
Future
96%
Taylor Swift
73%
Jay Z
72%
17 outcomes$216K vol
Crypto+31 pts
Which companies announce bankruptcy before 2027?
C3.ai
41%
Beyond Meat
34%
Workhorse
31%
14 outcomes$200K vol
Sports+31 pts
UFC 329: Max Holloway vs. Conor McGregor (Welterweight, Main Card)
Fight won by KO/TKO?
82%
Max Holloway vs. Conor McGregor
67%
O/U 1.5 Rounds
58%
11 outcomes$895K vol
Geopolitics+28 pts
World Cup: Golden Boot Winner
Kylian Mbappe
51%
Lionel Messi
37%
Harry Kane
5%
24 outcomes$46.7M vol
Sports+28 pts
MLB: Runs Leader
Fernando Tatis Jr.
28%
Shohei Ohtani
24%
Ben Rice
5%
24 outcomes$1.7M vol
Geopolitics+28 pts
Israeli parliament dissolved by...?
July 31
85%
July 15
12%
2 outcomes$1.9M vol
Tech & AI+27 pts
GPT-5.6 released on...?
July 9
44%
July 14
29%
July 7
7%
24 outcomes$420K vol
Sports+27 pts
World Cup: Nation To Reach Semifinals
France
79%
Argentina
62%
Spain
51%
14 outcomes$3.2M vol
Tech & AI+26 pts
Next OpenAI Model: Arena Debut?
1450+
82%
1470+
71%
2 outcomes$152K vol
Sports+26 pts
Who will attend Taylor Swift and Travis Kelce's wedding?
Gracie Abrams
100%
Sabrina Carpenter
100%
Jack Antonoff
99%
16 outcomes$810K vol
Sports+24 pts
2026 Women's Wimbledon Winner
Naomi Osaka
26%
Jessica Pegula
17%
Madison Keys
10%
14 outcomes$28.9M vol
Sports+23 pts
Brazil vs. Japan - Player Props
Ayase Ueda: 1+ shots on target
52%
Matheus Cunha: 2+ shots on target
50%
Alisson: 2+ saves
47%
3 outcomes$562K vol
Sports+23 pts
World Cup: Nation of Top Goalscorer
France
52%
Argentina
37%
England
6%
14 outcomes$1.9M vol
Politics+23 pts
Berlin State Election Winner
Linke
35%
CDU
25%
Grüne
20%
8 outcomes$2.9M vol
Crypto+23 pts
How much will Coinbase token sales raise in 2026?
>$600M
68%
>$400M
57%
>$200M
55%
5 outcomes$330K vol
Culture+22 pts
Latvian Parliamentary Election Winner
AS
34%
LPV
27%
PRO
16%
9 outcomes$119K vol
Sports+22 pts
MLB: Strikeouts Leader - Pitcher
Jacob Misiorowski
70%
Cristopher Sánchez
20%
Paul Skenes
7%
24 outcomes$3.0M vol
Crypto+22 pts
What price will Solana hit in 2026?
↑ 90
80%
↓ 60
63%
↑ 100
56%
20 outcomes$1.1M vol
Geopolitics+21 pts
World Cup: Golden Ball Winner
Kylian Mbappé
39%
Lionel Messi
26%
Michael Olise
10%
20 outcomes$2.1M vol
▼ Falling
Geopolitics-69 pts
Which countries will recognize Israel by June 30?
0%
Very unlikely$3.6M vol
Tech & AI-46 pts
Trump orders federal review of AI model releases by...?
13%
Unlikely$404K vol
Sports-45 pts
Norway vs. France - Player Props
Mike Maignan: 3+ saves
52%
Egil Selvik: 5+ saves
50%
Mike Maignan: 4+ saves
48%
3 outcomes$1.6M vol
Politics-23 pts
Tamas Sulyok out as President of Hungary by...?
68%
Likely$679K vol
Geopolitics-21 pts
Will __ ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30?
60+
1%
80+
0%
2 outcomes$4.1M vol
Crypto-21 pts
What price will XRP hit in 2026?
↓ 1.00
70%
↓ 0.60
50%
↓ 0.80
42%
15 outcomes$196K vol
Crypto-20 pts
Will USDT market cap hit $200B by ___?
61%
Leaning yes$189K vol
Geopolitics-18 pts
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31?
17%
Unlikely$12.1M vol
Crypto-17 pts
Hurupay FDV above ___ one day after launch?
$5M
26%
$10M
13%
$20M
9%
8 outcomes$236K vol
Crypto-17 pts
Will Abstract launch a token by ___?
December 31, 2027
55%
September 30, 2027
51%
June 30, 2027
49%
6 outcomes$501K vol
Crypto-16 pts
Will Perena launch a token by ___?
December 31, 2026
27%
September 30, 2026
17%
2 outcomes$212K vol
Culture-16 pts
Bachelorette Season 22 Winner
Doug Mason
51%
Other (Season Cancelled)
21%
Richard Van De Water
1%
23 outcomes$2.4M vol
Culture-14 pts
Taylor Swift pregnant by...?
14%
Unlikely$2.0M vol
Tech & AI-13 pts
Tesla and SpaceX merger officially announced by...?
December 31
26%
September 30
10%
2 outcomes$809K vol
Politics-12 pts
Next UK Chancellor of the Exchequer in 2026?
Ed Miliband
50%
Pat McFadden
14%
Yvette Cooper
13%
10 outcomes$600K vol
Crypto-12 pts
Hyperliquid airdrop by ....?
December 31, 2027
46%
June 30, 2027
21%
December 31, 2026
14%
3 outcomes$506K vol
Economy-12 pts
Largest Company end of December 2026?
NVIDIA
61%
Alphabet
17%
Apple
16%
8 outcomes$4.0M vol
Politics-12 pts
UK election called by...?
June 30, 2027
22%
December 31, 2026
13%
2 outcomes$801K vol
Crypto-12 pts
Will Nansen launch a token by ___?
December 31, 2027
34%
December 31, 2026
21%
September 30, 2026
7%
3 outcomes$291K vol
Economy-12 pts
How high will 10-year Treasury yield go before 2027?
4.8%
14%
5.0%
9%
5.5%
4%
6 outcomes$245K vol
Culture-12 pts
Trump declassifies new UFO files by...?
July 31
72%
July 15
50%
July 7
3%
3 outcomes$115K vol
Sports-11 pts
World Cup: Number of Missed Penalties
5+ missed penalties
19%
10+ missed penalties
1%
15+ missed penalties
1%
10 outcomes$1.3M vol
Politics-11 pts
Trump renames ICE to NICE by...?
December 31
18%
July 31
9%
2 outcomes$236K vol
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