Biggest movers
Where minds are changing
Probabilities that shifted the most over the past 7 days. A big move is the market telling you new information has arrived — often before it reaches the news.
Odds as of Oct 9, 2026 · sourced from Polymarket
▲ Rising
Culture+73 pts
# of views of next MrBeast video on week 1?
100M+
100%
<50M
0%
50-60M
0%
7 outcomes$346K vol
Politics+67 pts
Rio de Janeiro Governor Election Winner
Douglas Ruas
96%
Eduardo Paes
3%
Dr. Luizinho
0%
16 outcomes$766K vol
Sports+47 pts
Buccaneers vs. Cowboys
Cowboys O/U 10.5
97%
O/U 24.5
97%
O/U 26.5
96%
24 outcomes$2.2M vol
Sports+43 pts
Who will become a UFC champion in 2026?
Leon Edwards
44%
Merab Dvalishvili
34%
Sean O'Malley
19%
24 outcomes$323K vol
Sports+43 pts
Missouri State vs. Western Kentucky
O/U 35.5
89%
O/U 37.5
78%
O/U 43.5
77%
24 outcomes$371K vol
Sports+42 pts
South Alabama vs. Arkansas State
O/U 37.5
94%
South Alabama O/U 20.5
92%
O/U 43.5
89%
24 outcomes$709K vol
Geopolitics+40 pts
MLB: 2026 American League Champion
Tampa Bay Rays
65%
Chicago White Sox
23%
Cleveland Guardians
11%
3 outcomes$4.6M vol
Geopolitics+39 pts
Nobel Peace Prize Winner 2026
Yulia Navalnaya
44%
Sviatlana Tsikhanouskaya
9%
World Central Kitchen
8%
24 outcomes$28.4M vol
Culture+36 pts
Elon Musk # tweets in October 2026?
1000+
62%
960-999
5%
800-839
3%
24 outcomes$299K vol
Politics+33 pts
Which states will Donald Trump visit in 2026?
Kansas
94%
Montana
92%
Mississippi
54%
22 outcomes$328K vol
Sports+30 pts
South Florida vs. UTSA
O/U 37.5
83%
O/U 35.5
82%
O/U 39.5
79%
24 outcomes$318K vol
Culture+28 pts
Elon Musk # tweets October 2 - October 9, 2026?
340-359
28%
360-379
23%
320-339
18%
11 outcomes$5.3M vol
Sports+26 pts
Who will be UFC Middleweight champion at the end of 2026?
Sean Strickland
85%
Nassourdine Imavov
6%
Khamzat Chimaev
1%
12 outcomes$968K vol
Politics+25 pts
Brazil Presidential Election
Flávio Bolsonaro
86%
Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva
14%
2 outcomes$178.0M vol
Culture+23 pts
Who will Trump publicly insult by September 30?
Letitia James
31%
Hillary Clinton
12%
Zohran Mamdani
4%
4 outcomes$184K vol
Crypto+23 pts
What price will Ethereum hit in 2026?
↓ 2,250
51%
↑ 3,000
41%
↓ 2,000
26%
22 outcomes$17.4M vol
Sports+22 pts
Santos FC vs. CR Flamengo - More Markets
O/U 1.5
100%
1st Half O/U 0.5
100%
1st Half O/U 1.5
100%
24 outcomes$277K vol
Crypto+22 pts
Felix FDV above ___ one day after launch?
$10M
48%
$5M
42%
$25M
13%
10 outcomes$367K vol
Geopolitics+20 pts
MLB: 2026 National League Champion
Los Angeles Dodgers
62%
Milwaukee Brewers
39%
2 outcomes$4.3M vol
Crypto+20 pts
What price will Lighter hit in 2026?
↓ $3
66%
↓ $2.5
51%
↑ $6
41%
9 outcomes$864K vol
Sports+20 pts
ESL Pro League Season 24: Winner
Vitality
44%
Spirit
19%
Falcons
14%
8 outcomes$558K vol
Sports+20 pts
St. Tropez: Harold Mayot vs Murphy Cassone
50%
Toss-up$467K vol
Geopolitics+18 pts
Ballon d'Or Winner 2026
Harry Kane
54%
Lamine Yamal
39%
Lionel Messi
3%
19 outcomes$46.3M vol
Crypto+16 pts
What price will XRP hit in 2026?
↓ 1.20
63%
↓ 1.00
28%
↓ 0.80
11%
18 outcomes$438K vol
▼ Falling
Crypto-34 pts
Kraken IPO by ___ ?
December 31, 2027
32%
June 30, 2027
32%
March 31, 2027
19%
4 outcomes$1.6M vol
Crypto-25 pts
Will Loopscale launch a token by ___?
December 31, 2027
36%
December 31, 2026
10%
2 outcomes$253K vol
Tech & AI-24 pts
Oklahoma enacts data center moratorium by...?
December 31, 2028
23%
December 31, 2027
17%
June 30, 2027
12%
4 outcomes$641K vol
Crypto-23 pts
Reya FDV above ___ one day after launch?
$10M
45%
$70M
40%
$40M
38%
8 outcomes$510K vol
Tech & AI-21 pts
Texas enacts data center moratorium by...?
December 31, 2028
27%
December 31, 2027
17%
June 30, 2027
14%
4 outcomes$425K vol
Politics-21 pts
Sinaloa Gov. Ruben Rocha extradited to US by...?
18%
Unlikely$355K vol
Crypto-21 pts
Abstract FDV above ___ one day after launch?
$200M
4%
$1B
4%
$3B
4%
9 outcomes$559K vol
Tech & AI-20 pts
Indiana enacts data center moratorium by...?
December 31, 2028
28%
December 31, 2027
11%
June 30, 2027
9%
4 outcomes$3.2M vol
Tech & AI-20 pts
Louisiana enacts data center moratorium by...?
December 31, 2028
20%
December 31, 2027
14%
June 30, 2027
13%
4 outcomes$401K vol
Tech & AI-19 pts
Missouri enacts data center moratorium by...?
December 31, 2028
26%
December 31, 2027
14%
June 30, 2027
12%
4 outcomes$432K vol
Economy-18 pts
Will Venezuelan crude oil production reach __ barrels per day in 2026?
1.2m
55%
1.5m
34%
1.3m
16%
6 outcomes$188K vol
Tech & AI-18 pts
Ohio enacts data center moratorium by...?
December 31, 2028
27%
December 31, 2027
20%
June 30, 2027
14%
4 outcomes$464K vol
Crypto-16 pts
Will Abstract launch a token by ___?
June 30, 2027
2%
September 30, 2027
2%
December 31, 2026
2%
5 outcomes$630K vol
Culture-15 pts
Any of the Cornell 7 charged with a felony sex crime?
28%
Unlikely$437K vol
Crypto-15 pts
Will Theo launch a token by ___ ?
46%
Toss-up$269K vol
Crypto-14 pts
Base FDV above ___ one day after launch?
$500M
45%
$2B
41%
$1B
41%
10 outcomes$858K vol
Tech & AI-14 pts
OpenAI IPO by...?
June 30, 2027
41%
March 31, 2027
25%
December 31, 2026
4%
3 outcomes$3.0M vol
Crypto-13 pts
What price will Bitcoin hit in 2026?
↑ 90,000
59%
↓ 70,000
40%
↑ 95,000
40%
24 outcomes$74.2M vol
Science-12 pts
How many SpaceX Starship launches reach space in 2026?
5-6
51%
<5
48%
7-8
1%
8 outcomes$521K vol
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