Biggest movers
Where minds are changing
Probabilities that shifted the most over the past 7 days. A big move is the market telling you new information has arrived — often before it reaches the news.
Odds as of Aug 21, 2026 · sourced from Polymarket
▲ Rising
Politics+92 pts
Florida Democratic Senate Primary Winner
Angie Nixon
100%
Jared Moskowitz
0%
Josh Weil
0%
8 outcomes$293K vol
Politics+62 pts
James Fishback vote share in 2026 Florida Republican Governor Primary?
Fishback 10–15%
100%
Fishback 25–30%
0%
Fishback <10%
0%
6 outcomes$338K vol
Crypto+59 pts
What price will Bitcoin hit in August?
↑ 80,000
60%
↑ 82,500
35%
↓ 70,000
23%
17 outcomes$14.5M vol
Crypto+54 pts
Bitcoin best month in 2026?
August
59%
April
10%
December
10%
6 outcomes$794K vol
Politics+52 pts
What will Gold (XAUUSD) hit in August 2026?
↑ $4,700
59%
↓ $4,000
1%
↓ $3,900
1%
8 outcomes$640K vol
Crypto+52 pts
What price will Hyperliquid hit in 2026?
↑ 80
82%
↑ 90
56%
↑ 100
47%
10 outcomes$2.0M vol
Culture+52 pts
"The Odyssey" total domestic gross by August 31? (Higher Strikes)
550 - 570m
74%
570m+
24%
530 - 550m
2%
6 outcomes$274K vol
Sports+50 pts
LoL: Anyone's Legend vs Team WE (BO3) - LPL Group Ascend
Game 1 Winner
100%
O/U 2.5 Games
100%
Total Kills Over/Under 30.5 in Game 2?
100%
24 outcomes$2.8M vol
Crypto+50 pts
What price will Bitcoin hit in 2026?
↑ 80,000
81%
↑ 85,000
63%
↑ 90,000
47%
24 outcomes$56.4M vol
Crypto+48 pts
What price will Ethereum hit in 2026?
↑ 2,500
87%
↑ 2,750
65%
↑ 3,000
48%
22 outcomes$11.2M vol
Crypto+45 pts
What price will Zcash hit in 2026?
↑ 700
80%
↑ 800
48%
↑ 900
26%
7 outcomes$367K vol
Culture+43 pts
Elon Musk # tweets August 14 - August 21, 2026?
240-259
52%
260-279
44%
280-299
4%
14 outcomes$5.2M vol
Culture+43 pts
Billboard #1 Artist 2026
Morgan Wallen
83%
Post Malone
3%
SZA
3%
16 outcomes$164K vol
Crypto+36 pts
What price will Solana hit in 2026?
↑ 100
77%
↑ 120
40%
↓ 70
39%
20 outcomes$1.5M vol
Crypto+34 pts
What price will Solana hit in August?
↑ 100
35%
↓ 80
24%
↑ 110
10%
15 outcomes$649K vol
Tech & AI+34 pts
Second-best AI Lab end of August?
Google
84%
Meta
10%
Alibaba
4%
21 outcomes$155K vol
Tech & AI+32 pts
Which companies will be acquired before 2027?
PayPal
57%
MGM Resorts
40%
Viking Therapeutics
22%
14 outcomes$18.2M vol
Politics+30 pts
What will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit in August 2026?
↑ $90
60%
↑ $95
26%
↑ $100
9%
19 outcomes$8.4M vol
Politics+28 pts
Which states will Donald Trump visit in 2026?
South Carolina
97%
Alabama
57%
Indiana
55%
24 outcomes$321K vol
Politics+27 pts
Who will leave Trump Administration before 2027?
Russell Vought
38%
Robert F. Kennedy Jr.
31%
Markwayne Mullin
30%
16 outcomes$1.4M vol
Crypto+27 pts
What price will Lighter hit in 2026?
↑ $3
84%
↑ $4
51%
↑ $6
18%
5 outcomes$765K vol
Sports+26 pts
FC Tōkyō vs. JEF United Ichihara Chiba - More Markets
FC Tōkyō O/U 0.5
76%
O/U 0.5
65%
JEF United Ichihara Chiba O/U 0.5
59%
24 outcomes$433K vol
Sports+25 pts
The International 2026: Winner
TEAM VISION
54%
Team Yandex
16%
Team Spirit
14%
7 outcomes$2.0M vol
Sports+23 pts
LoL: T1 vs DN SOOPers (BO5) - KeSPA Cup Playoffs
50%
Toss-up$6.3M vol
▼ Falling
Business-65 pts
What will S&P 500 (SPY) hit in August 2026?
↑ $780
28%
↑ $790
11%
↓ $730
10%
10 outcomes$137K vol
Geopolitics-39 pts
LoL: EDward Gaming vs ThunderTalk Gaming (BO3) - LPL Group Ascend
Both Teams Destroy Inhibitors
10%
Any Player Quadra Kill
10%
Any Player Penta Kill
10%
5 outcomes$2.3M vol
Sports-36 pts
Who will attend Taylor Swift and Travis Kelce's wedding?
32%
Unlikely$1.4M vol
Crypto-32 pts
Altcoin market cap dip to $150B before 2027?
35%
Leaning no$275K vol
Crypto-26 pts
What price will XRP hit in 2026?
↓ 0.80
20%
↓ 0.60
12%
↑ 2.60
7%
14 outcomes$263K vol
Sports-22 pts
GNK Dinamo Zagreb vs. Viking FK - More Markets
42%
Leaning no$549K vol
Sports-21 pts
PFK Levski Sofia vs. AEK - More Markets
23%
Unlikely$452K vol
Tech & AI-18 pts
Largest IPO by market cap in 2026?
SpaceX
53%
Anthropic
47%
OpenAI
0%
12 outcomes$5.5M vol
Sports-16 pts
Fenerbahçe SK vs. Olympique Lyonnais - More Markets
35%
Leaning no$1.1M vol
Politics-16 pts
Who will Trump pardon before 2027?
Ryan Salame
23%
Donald Brodie
22%
Matt Gaetz
21%
24 outcomes$427K vol
Sports-16 pts
2026 Men’s US Open Winner (Tennis)
Jannik Sinner
36%
Carlos Alcaraz
26%
Alexander Zverev
11%
22 outcomes$8.6M vol
Geopolitics-15 pts
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?
31%
Unlikely$8.8M vol
Sports-15 pts
MLB: 2026 NL East Champion
Atlanta Braves
79%
Philadelphia Phillies
20%
Miami Marlins
0%
5 outcomes$497K vol
Politics-13 pts
South Carolina Republican Senate Special Primary Winner
Darline Graham Nordone
70%
Ralph Norman
30%
Nancy Mace
0%
15 outcomes$2.6M vol
Geopolitics-12 pts
MLB: Home Runs Leader
Kyle Schwarber
35%
Yordan Alvarez
23%
Junior Caminero
21%
24 outcomes$3.1M vol
Geopolitics-12 pts
US announces end of Iranian blockade by...?
December 31
66%
October 31
42%
September 30
25%
8 outcomes$18.0M vol
Geopolitics-11 pts
US-Iran Final Nuclear Deal by…?
December 31
8%
November 30
6%
October 31
4%
5 outcomes$16.0M vol
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