Biggest movers
Where minds are changing
Probabilities that shifted the most over the past 7 days. A big move is the market telling you new information has arrived — often before it reaches the news.
Odds as of Oct 5, 2026 · sourced from Polymarket
▲ Rising
Business+82 pts
Oura IPO Closing Market Cap
No IPO before January 2027
83%
$20B+
3%
$7.5B–$10B
3%
8 outcomes$578K vol
Politics+77 pts
Brazil Presidential Election First Round: Margin of Victory
Flávio Bolsonaro <5%
100%
Lula da Silva <5%
0%
Lula da Silva 5-10%
0%
11 outcomes$1.5M vol
Politics+76 pts
Rio de Janeiro Governor Election Winner
Douglas Ruas
87%
Eduardo Paes
8%
Dr. Luizinho
0%
16 outcomes$640K vol
Politics+76 pts
Brazil Presidential Election First Round: 2nd Place
Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva
100%
Flávio Bolsonaro
0%
Tarcisio de Freitas
0%
18 outcomes$10.9M vol
Politics+74 pts
Brazil Presidential Election First Round Winner
Flavio Bolsonaro
100%
Lula
0%
Ronaldo Caiado
0%
13 outcomes$5.8M vol
Crypto+59 pts
What price will Pump.fun hit in 2026?
↑ 0.0070
88%
↓ 0.0030
50%
↑ 0.0080
46%
9 outcomes$203K vol
Politics+58 pts
Which states will Donald Trump visit in 2026?
Kansas
92%
Nebraska
85%
Montana
85%
23 outcomes$327K vol
Tech & AI+57 pts
Which company has the best AI model end of October?
Google
65%
Anthropic
32%
OpenAI
1%
21 outcomes$1.8M vol
Politics+54 pts
Brazil Presidential Election First Round: Renan Santos Vote Share?
2-4%
99%
4-6%
0%
<2%
0%
5 outcomes$410K vol
Politics+54 pts
Bahia Governor Election Winner
Jerônimo Rodrigues
99%
ACM Neto
1%
João Roma
0%
7 outcomes$376K vol
Politics+53 pts
Brazil Presidential Election First Round: 3rd Place
Augusto Cury
100%
Renan Santos
0%
Ronaldo Caiado
0%
19 outcomes$2.6M vol
Geopolitics+49 pts
Fed Decision in October?
No change
83%
25 bps increase
17%
25 bps decrease
0%
5 outcomes$25.2M vol
Sports+48 pts
Lions vs. Panthers
O/U 24.5
98%
O/U 26.5
98%
O/U 27.5
98%
24 outcomes$2.5M vol
Sports+47 pts
Falcons vs. Saints
O/U 24.5
97%
O/U 26.5
96%
O/U 28.5
95%
24 outcomes$465K vol
Tech & AI+43 pts
When will the next Google Gemini Pro model be released?
No release by November 1
80%
October 19–October 25
8%
October 5–October 11
5%
6 outcomes$219K vol
Sports+40 pts
Broncos vs. 49ers
Spread -1.5
100%
Spread -2.5
100%
Spread -3.5
100%
24 outcomes$9.2M vol
Politics+39 pts
Romanian PM Bolojan out by...?
December 31
90%
October 31
43%
2 outcomes$870K vol
Politics+36 pts
Ceará Governor Election Winner
Elmano de Freitas
99%
Ciro Gomes
0%
Eduardo Girão
0%
6 outcomes$408K vol
Sports+34 pts
Who will be UFC Middleweight champion at the end of 2026?
Sean Strickland
94%
Nassourdine Imavov
3%
Khamzat Chimaev
1%
12 outcomes$961K vol
Sports+32 pts
Dolphins vs. Vikings
Spread -3.5
100%
Spread -4.5
100%
O/U 22.5
100%
24 outcomes$4.5M vol
Sports+31 pts
Chiefs vs. Raiders
Chiefs vs. Raiders
100%
Spread -1.5
100%
O/U 39.5
100%
24 outcomes$7.5M vol
Sports+29 pts
Chargers vs. Seahawks
Spread -1.5
100%
Spread -2.5
100%
Spread -3.5
100%
24 outcomes$3.5M vol
Geopolitics+28 pts
Which country will join Abraham Accords before 2027?
Jordan
35%
Kuwait
9%
Somaliland
9%
12 outcomes$1.7M vol
Sports+28 pts
Dana White's Contender Series: Ilias Bulaid vs. Erick Visconde (Featherweight, Main Card)
O/U 1.5 Rounds
79%
O/U 0.5 Rounds
68%
Ilias Bulaid vs. Erick Visconde
57%
19 outcomes$570K vol
▼ Falling
Tech & AI-60 pts
Next Google Gemini Pro Model: Arena Debut?
1480+
35%
1495+
32%
1500+
31%
5 outcomes$240K vol
Sports-49 pts
Patriots vs. Bills
2H Spread -9.5
40%
2H Spread -6.5
39%
2 outcomes$6.4M vol
Crypto-31 pts
Reya FDV above ___ one day after launch?
$10M
44%
$40M
43%
$70M
36%
8 outcomes$507K vol
Crypto-23 pts
What price will BNB hit in 2026?
↓ 650
35%
↑ 1000
28%
↓ 600
28%
15 outcomes$190K vol
Tech & AI-22 pts
Which company has best AI model end of 2026?
Anthropic
53%
Google
37%
OpenAI
7%
15 outcomes$2.0M vol
Crypto-19 pts
Abstract FDV above ___ one day after launch?
$200M
24%
$400M
17%
$600M
14%
9 outcomes$490K vol
Tech & AI-18 pts
OpenAI announces another Millennium Prize solution by...?
December 31, 2027
52%
December 31, 2026
20%
2 outcomes$623K vol
Geopolitics-17 pts
What will Fed Rate hit before 2027?
↑ 4.25%
71%
↑ 4.5%
13%
↑ 4.75%
5%
20 outcomes$1.9M vol
Sports-17 pts
MLS: 2026 Defender of the Year
Tristan Blackmon
19%
Walker Zimmerman
16%
Andrew Privett
14%
24 outcomes$908K vol
Crypto-16 pts
Will Base launch a token by ___ ?
December 31, 2027
44%
June 30, 2027
36%
December 31, 2026
6%
3 outcomes$8.0M vol
Politics-14 pts
María Corina Machado enters Venezuela by...?
December 31
39%
October 31
14%
2 outcomes$6.5M vol
Crypto-14 pts
What price will Zcash hit in 2026?
↑ 2000
41%
↓ 700
28%
↓ 600
20%
9 outcomes$664K vol
Crypto-14 pts
What price will Hyperliquid hit in 2026?
↑ 100
70%
↓ 75
55%
↑ 110
52%
18 outcomes$2.5M vol
Crypto-14 pts
Will Abstract launch a token by ___?
December 31, 2027
39%
September 30, 2027
25%
June 30, 2027
19%
5 outcomes$577K vol
Crypto-13 pts
Altcoin market cap dip to $150B before 2027?
8%
Very unlikely$285K vol
Crypto-13 pts
Will USDT market cap hit $200B by ___?
46%
Toss-up$190K vol
Crypto-13 pts
Microstrategy delisted from MSCI index by...?
72%
Likely$1.2M vol
Crypto-13 pts
Felix FDV above ___ one day after launch?
$5M
42%
$10M
29%
$25M
14%
10 outcomes$365K vol
Crypto-12 pts
Will Opensea launch a token by ___?
8%
Very unlikely$1.7M vol
Sports-12 pts
LoL: KaBuM! Ilha das Lendas vs Golden Lions (BO5) - CBLOL Promotion Playoffs
51%
Toss-up$577K vol
Science-12 pts
5kt meteor strike in 2026?
11%
Unlikely$315K vol
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