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GeopoliticsIranTrumpPeace Deal

US-Iran Hormuz Agreement by...?

5 outcomes · ranked

$1.7M traded
December 31
37%
November 30
27%
October 31
17%
October 15
7%
October 7
0%

Probability over time

last 30 days
48%December 31 · -10 pts over period37%

What this means

Across 5 outcomes, the market's favourite is December 31 at 37%. Because these are separate markets, probabilities need not sum to exactly 100%.

How this resolves

This market will resolve to “Yes” if a diplomatic agreement between the United States and Iran over traffic in the strait of Hormuz is announced by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. A diplomatic agreement refers to an official agreement, treaty, deal, or substantially similar diplomatic instrument that establishes agreed actions, policies, obligations, or commitments between the United States and Iran. A qualifying diplomatic agreement must establish Iranian policies, obligations, or commitments aimed at permitting, restoring, or increasing vessel or shipping traffic through the Strait of Hormuz. All listed countries must announce their acceptance of the same qualifying diplomatic agreement for the Payout Condition to be met. A joint announcement will qualify, as will separate announcements from each entity of its own acceptance of an agreement which, taken together, directly indicate…

Resolves: Jan 1, 2027

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