How it works
From a market price to a probability you can act on
WillThisHappen doesn't forecast anything itself. It reads what thousands of people are already betting, turns it into one clean number, and tracks how it moves.
A market sets the price
On a prediction market, a contract pays out $1 if an event happens. When it trades at $0.63, the crowd — betting real money — is collectively saying there's roughly a 63% chance. That price is the probability.
WillThisHappen ingests it
We pull live prices, volume and liquidity from the underlying market, normalise binary and multi-outcome questions into one clean model, and record an exact 'as of' timestamp for every figure.
We organise & phrase it
Each market becomes a plain-English question, sorted into a topic, with its 7-day trend, resolution criteria and a link back to the source. No jargon, no noise.
You track what matters
Save questions to a watchlist, see how the odds move, and read the future at a glance — or dig into resolution details when a number surprises you.
Alerts catch the moves
On Analyst, get an email or webhook the moment a question you follow swings past your threshold — often before the news catches up.
Agents pull it via API
Every probability is available over a clean JSON API and announced in llms.txt, so your models and autonomous agents can ground their answers in a real, sourced number.
Questions about the how
How often does the data update?
WillThisHappen refreshes probabilities from the underlying market roughly every 15 minutes, and every question page shows an "as of" timestamp so you always know how fresh a number is.
Is this financial advice?
No. WillThisHappen is an information and research tool. Probabilities are market prices; they can be wrong, and nothing here is advice to trade or bet.
Where does the data come from?
Currently from Polymarket's public data. WillThisHappen normalises, organises and tracks it, and is built to add more venues over time.
Start following the future.
Browse every probability free. Create an account to build a watchlist and get a weekly digest. Upgrade any time for alerts and API access.