Disclaimer

Information only

WillThisHappen provides market-implied probabilities and related information for research and general information purposes only. Nothing on this site is financial, investment, legal or professional advice, and nothing here is a recommendation to trade, bet, or take any position.

Not a broker or exchange

WillThisHappen does not accept, place or facilitate wagers or trades. We are not a broker-dealer, exchange, futures commission merchant, or investment adviser. Prediction-market participation may be regulated or restricted in your jurisdiction; it is your responsibility to comply with applicable law.

Accuracy & sources

Probabilities are prices sourced from third-party prediction markets (currently Polymarket) and are presented "as is". They can be delayed, incomplete, or wrong, and markets can move sharply. A stated probability is an estimate, not a guarantee: a 70% chance still fails roughly three times in ten. We label the source and an "as of" time for every figure and do not fabricate data, but we make no warranty as to accuracy, completeness or fitness for any purpose.

Limitation of liability

To the fullest extent permitted by law, WillThisHappen is not liable for any loss or damage arising from your use of, or reliance on, information provided by WillThisHappen.