Journal
Guides & analysis
How prediction markets work, how to read them, and what they say about the future. Written for people who want the signal, not the noise.
What the market says about the 2028 US election
A live read of the 2028 nomination and general-election odds, and how to follow them as they move on WillThisHappen.
Prediction markets for AI agents: the probability of anything, as an API
Why autonomous agents need calibrated, real-time probabilities — and how to feed them from a clean API and llms.txt.
Can you trust prediction markets? Manipulation, thin markets and edge cases
When a probability is real signal and when it's noise: liquidity, whales, resolution risk and how to spot a market you shouldn't lean on.
Polymarket vs Kalshi: how the big prediction markets differ
Regulation, coverage, liquidity and how to read prices across the two biggest venues — and where WillThisHappen fits.
Prediction markets vs polls: which should you trust?
Polls measure opinion; markets price outcomes. Why the two disagree, and how to combine them without fooling yourself.
How accurate are prediction markets, really?
Calibration, track records and the limits of the crowd. What a 70% chance actually means, and when markets get it wrong.
How to read a market-implied probability
What the price actually means, how to convert it to odds, and the mistakes that make people misread the crowd.
What is a prediction market? A plain-English guide
How prediction markets turn thousands of real-money bets into a single probability — and why that number is often sharper than polls or pundits.
The odds, in your inbox
A weekly read on where the markets say the world is heading. No spam, unsubscribe anytime.
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