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Topic
Geopolitics & Conflict
Wars, ceasefires, treaties and cross-border risk, priced by the market.
90 live questions · odds as of Jul 5, 2026
Geopolitics-2 pts
Netanyahu out by...?
December 31
46%
July 31
1%
2 outcomes$123.4M vol
Geopolitics-1 pt
Venezuela leader end of 2026?
Nicolás Maduro
80%
Delcy Rodríguez
16%
María Corina Machado
2%
16 outcomes$93.1M vol
Geopolitics-2 pts
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by...?
August 31
2%
July 31
1%
2 outcomes$61.0M vol
Geopolitics+5 pts
Next leader out of power before 2027? (No Orban)
Starmer - UK PM
96%
Petro - Colombia President
1%
Zelenskyy - Ukraine President
1%
24 outcomes$47.0M vol
Geopolitics+28 pts
World Cup: Golden Boot Winner
Kylian Mbappe
51%
Lionel Messi
37%
Harry Kane
5%
24 outcomes$46.7M vol
Geopolitics-1 pt
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?
0%
Very unlikely$43.5M vol
Geopoliticsflat
How many Fed rate cuts in 2026?
0 (0 bps)
78%
1 (25 bps)
14%
2 (50 bps)
4%
13 outcomes$40.7M vol
Geopolitics-2 pts
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?
13%
Unlikely$39.3M vol
Geopolitics-2 pts
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026?
4%
Very unlikely$38.0M vol
Geopolitics
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by...?
December 31
13%
September 30
5%
July 31
1%
3 outcomes$28.3M vol
Geopolitics-3 pts
Who will be the next Prime Minister of Israel after the next election?
Gadi Eizenkot
39%
Benjamin Netanyahu
36%
Naftali Bennett
13%
18 outcomes$25.7M vol
Geopoliticsflat
Nobel Peace Prize Winner 2026
UNRWA
11%
Volodymyr Zelenskyy
8%
Yulia Navalnaya
7%
20 outcomes$22.1M vol
Geopolitics-1 pt
Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by...?
6%
Very unlikely$21.5M vol
Geopolitics-3 pts
Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027?
7%
Very unlikely$21.2M vol
Geopolitics
Israel closes its airspace by...?
August 31
13%
July 31
7%
July 15
2%
4 outcomes$20.8M vol
Geopolitics
Iran leadership change by...?
June 30, 2027
26%
December 31
16%
September 30
9%
4 outcomes$19.1M vol
Geopolitics-2 pts
Iran leader end of 2026?
Mojtaba Khamenei
83%
Reza Pahlavi
3%
Mohammad-Bagher Ghalibaf
3%
24 outcomes$17.5M vol
Geopolitics-4 pts
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by...?
December 31
17%
July 31
2%
2 outcomes$17.1M vol
Geopolitics-3 pts
Putin out as President of Russia by December 31, 2026?
10%
Very unlikely$16.1M vol
Geopolitics
Highest grossing movie in 2026?
Spider-Man: Brand New Day
77%
Avengers: Doomsday
13%
Toy Story 5
3%
14 outcomes$14.2M vol
Geopoliticsflat
Will the U.S. invade Venezuela by...?
6%
Very unlikely$14.2M vol
Geopolitics-2 pts
Which party will gain most seats in Russian Parliamentary Election?
United Russia (ER)
56%
New People (NL)
35%
Liberal Democratic Party of Russia (LDPR)
5%
7 outcomes$14.1M vol
Geopolitics-18 pts
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31?
17%
Unlikely$12.1M vol
Geopolitics-3 pts
Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by...?
3%
Very unlikely$12.0M vol
Geopoliticsflat
Will Reza Pahlavi lead Iran in 2026?
4%
Very unlikely$11.6M vol
Geopolitics-1 pt
Xi Jinping out before 2027?
5%
Very unlikely$11.0M vol
Geopolitics-4 pts
Will the US acquire part of Greenland in 2026?
6%
Very unlikely$10.4M vol
Geopolitics-7 pts
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by...?
2%
Very unlikely$9.8M vol
Geopolitics-3 pts
Trump out as President before 2027?
7%
Very unlikely$9.7M vol
Geopolitics
Balance of Power: 2026 Midterms
Democrats Sweep
43%
R Senate, D House
40%
Republicans Sweep
14%
5 outcomes$8.4M vol
Geopolitics+2 pts
Measles cases in U.S. in 2026?
↑3k
76%
↑3.5k
64%
↑4k
26%
7 outcomes$7.7M vol
Geopolitics
Will the US officially declare war on Iran by...?
6%
Very unlikely$7.6M vol
Geopolitics
US-Iran Final Nuclear Deal by…?
December 31
46%
September 30
30%
August 31
24%
6 outcomes$7.3M vol
Geopolitics+6 pts
Will Russia capture Kostyantynivka by...?
December 31, 2026
95%
September 30, 2026
87%
July 31, 2026
49%
3 outcomes$7.3M vol
Geopolitics-3 pts
How many different countries will Israel strike in 2026?
4
50%
5
32%
6
3%
12 outcomes$7.3M vol
Geopolitics-4 pts
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by...?
December 31
17%
September 30
8%
August 31
4%
4 outcomes$7.1M vol
Geopolitics-10 pts
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15?
3%
Very unlikely$6.8M vol
Geopolitics
US military action against Cuba by...?
38%
Leaning no$6.8M vol
Geopolitics-1 pt
Will US withdraw from NATO by...?
December 31
4%
August 31
1%
2 outcomes$6.2M vol
Geopolitics-4 pts
Russia nuclear test by...?
December 31, 2026
8%
September 30, 2026
3%
2 outcomes$6.1M vol
Geopolitics-1 pt
Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by...?
September 30
10%
June 30
0%
2 outcomes$5.4M vol
Geopolitics-3 pts
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by...?
December 31
40%
October 31
24%
August 31
13%
3 outcomes$5.3M vol
Geopolitics
Will Russia invade a NATO country by...?
7%
Very unlikely$5.2M vol
Geopolitics+11 pts
Next round of US-Iran peace talks by...?
July 31
74%
July 17
39%
July 10
5%
4 outcomes$4.8M vol
Geopolitics
Mojtaba Khamenei public appearance by...?
December 31
44%
September 30
31%
August 31
21%
5 outcomes$4.3M vol
Geopolitics-21 pts
Will __ ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30?
60+
1%
80+
0%
2 outcomes$4.1M vol
Geopolitics-6 pts
MLB: 2026 American League Champion
New York Yankees
28%
Seattle Mariners
21%
Tampa Bay Rays
14%
15 outcomes$4.1M vol
Geopolitics
Israel x Hamas ceasefire cancelled by...?
30%
Unlikely$4.1M vol
Geopolitics-8 pts
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?
73%
Likely$3.9M vol
Geopolitics+7 pts
MLB: 2026 National League Champion
Los Angeles Dodgers
48%
Atlanta Braves
13%
Milwaukee Brewers
11%
15 outcomes$3.7M vol
Geopolitics-69 pts
Which countries will recognize Israel by June 30?
0%
Very unlikely$3.6M vol
Geopolitics-1 pt
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by...?
9%
Very unlikely$3.4M vol
Geopolitics-5 pts
US strike on Mexico by...?
13%
Unlikely$3.4M vol
Geopolitics
Next Prime Minister of Sweden
Magdalena Andersson
74%
Ulf Kristersson
19%
Jimmie Åkesson
2%
10 outcomes$3.1M vol
Geopolitics-3 pts
Will the U.S. invade Cuba in 2026?
14%
Unlikely$3.0M vol
Geopolitics
Will Hezbollah disarm by...?
16%
Unlikely$3.0M vol
Geopolitics-4 pts
NATO x Russia military clash by...?
17%
Unlikely$2.9M vol
Geopolitics-9 pts
Will Russia capture Lyman by...?
December 31
64%
September 30
23%
2 outcomes$2.8M vol
Geopolitics
Israel x Hamas Ceasefire Phase II by...?
22%
Unlikely$2.8M vol
Geopolitics-2 pts
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027?
6%
Very unlikely$2.7M vol
Geopolitics+3 pts
Where will Zelenskyy and Putin meet next before 2027?
No meeting before 2027
85%
Switzerland
3%
US
3%
14 outcomes$2.7M vol
Geopolitics-2 pts
Nicolás Maduro released from custody by...?
8%
Very unlikely$2.7M vol
Geopolitics-1 pt
Ukraine recognizes Russian sovereignty over its territory by...?
5%
Very unlikely$2.6M vol
Geopolitics-2 pts
Will Ukraine recapture Crimean territory by...?
12%
Unlikely$2.6M vol
Geopolitics-1 pt
Zelenskyy out as Ukraine president by end of 2026?
12%
Unlikely$2.6M vol
Geopoliticsflat
Ukraine election held by...?
9%
Very unlikely$2.5M vol
Geopolitics-4 pts
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027?
22%
Unlikely$2.4M vol
Geopolitics+19 pts
Where will the next next round of US-Iran peace talks be...?
Pakistan
34%
Qatar
26%
Switzerland
18%
19 outcomes$2.3M vol
Geopolitics+3 pts
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by...?
December 31
23%
September 30
6%
2 outcomes$2.2M vol
Geopolitics-1 pt
Will Alberta join the US?
2%
Very unlikely$2.2M vol
Geopolitics+21 pts
World Cup: Golden Ball Winner
Kylian Mbappé
39%
Lionel Messi
26%
Michael Olise
10%
20 outcomes$2.1M vol
Geopolitics-2 pts
Israel and Syria normalize relations by...?
8%
Very unlikely$2.1M vol
Geopolitics-2 pts
US strike on Colombia by...?
21%
Unlikely$2.1M vol
Geopolitics
Will Hamas agree to disarm by...?
14%
Unlikely$2.1M vol
Geopolitics
Iran coup attempt by...?
11%
Unlikely$2.1M vol
Geopolitics-10 pts
Miguel Díaz-Canel out as leader of Cuba by...?
33%
Unlikely$2.0M vol
Geopolitics+3 pts
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by...?
15%
Unlikely$2.0M vol
Geopolitics+3 pts
OpenAI IPO Closing Market Cap
No IPO by December 31, 2026
79%
1T–1.25T
6%
1.5T+
4%
7 outcomes$1.9M vol
Geopolitics+28 pts
Israeli parliament dissolved by...?
July 31
85%
July 15
12%
2 outcomes$1.9M vol
Geopolitics+1 pt
Who will sign U.S. x Iran deal?
Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf
7%
Abbas Araghchi
3%
Mishal Al-Ahmad Al-Jaber Al-Sabah
2%
15 outcomes$1.9M vol
Geopoliticsflat
US x Russia military clash by...?
6%
Very unlikely$1.7M vol
Geopolitics+1 pt
MLB: ERA Leader
Shohei Ohtani
14%
Yoshinobu Yamamoto
9%
Cristopher Sánchez
7%
24 outcomes$1.7M vol
Geopolitics-1 pt
Mohammed bin Salman out as leader of Saudi Arabia by...?
5%
Very unlikely$1.7M vol
Geopoliticsflat
Russia Parliamentary Election Winner
United Russia (ER)
96%
New People (NL)
3%
Communist Party of the Russian Federation (KPRF)
1%
7 outcomes$1.7M vol
Geopolitics+1 pt
Ukraine election called by...?
December 31, 2026
18%
August 31, 2026
9%
2 outcomes$1.7M vol
Geopolitics+1 pt
Which movie has biggest opening weekend in 2026?
Avengers: Doomsday
70%
Spider-Man: Brand New Day
21%
The Odyssey
2%
6 outcomes$1.7M vol
Geopolitics-2 pts
Will China invade Taiwan by December 31, 2027?
13%
Unlikely$1.6M vol
Geopolitics+2 pts
MLB: AL Rookie of the Year
Kevin McGonigle
55%
Munetaka Murakami
16%
Leo De Vries
4%
20 outcomes$1.6M vol
Geopolitics
Israel ground operation in Iran confirmed by...?
December 31
8%
July 31
1%
2 outcomes$1.5M vol
Geopolitics+3 pts
How many different countries will the US conduct military action against in 2026?
9
35%
8
35%
10
13%
8 outcomes$1.5M vol
Geopolitics — frequently asked
What is the most likely geopolitics outcome right now?
The most actively traded geopolitics question is “Netanyahu out by...?”, currently at 46% on the market.
How often do geopolitics odds update?
WillThisHappen refreshes probabilities from the underlying prediction market roughly every 15 minutes, and shows the 7-day change so you can see which way sentiment is moving.
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