🌍
Topic
Geopolitics & Conflict
Wars, ceasefires, treaties and cross-border risk, priced by the market.
90 live questions · odds as of Oct 9, 2026
Geopolitics-8 pts
Netanyahu out by...?
38%
Leaning no$124.5M vol
Geopolitics+2 pts
Venezuela leader end of 2026?
Nicolás Maduro
71%
Delcy Rodríguez
26%
No Head of State
2%
16 outcomes$98.1M vol
Geopolitics-1 pt
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by...?
December 31
6%
October 31
1%
2 outcomes$75.6M vol
Geopolitics+2 pts
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?
17%
Unlikely$72.9M vol
Geopolitics-1 pt
How many Fed rate cuts in 2026?
0 (0 bps)
96%
1 (25 bps)
2%
2 (50 bps)
1%
13 outcomes$54.0M vol
Geopolitics+18 pts
Ballon d'Or Winner 2026
Harry Kane
54%
Lamine Yamal
39%
Lionel Messi
3%
19 outcomes$46.3M vol
Geopolitics-4 pts
Prime Minister of Israel after the next election?
Gadi Eizenkot
44%
Benjamin Netanyahu
37%
Naftali Bennett
10%
19 outcomes$44.5M vol
Geopolitics-1 pt
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026?
2%
Very unlikely$43.7M vol
Geopoliticsflat
Iran leader end of 2026?
Mojtaba Khamenei
87%
No Head of State
4%
Reza Pahlavi
3%
24 outcomes$40.1M vol
Geopolitics-3 pts
US announces end of Iranian blockade by...?
March 31
69%
December 31
49%
November 30
36%
5 outcomes$38.2M vol
Geopolitics
Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through...?
October 9
99%
October 15
95%
October 31
82%
6 outcomes$33.2M vol
Geopolitics+10 pts
Fed Decision in October?
No change
85%
25 bps increase
16%
25 bps decrease
0%
5 outcomes$30.6M vol
Geopolitics
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by...?
6%
Very unlikely$29.5M vol
Geopolitics+39 pts
Nobel Peace Prize Winner 2026
Yulia Navalnaya
44%
Sviatlana Tsikhanouskaya
9%
World Central Kitchen
8%
24 outcomes$28.4M vol
Geopolitics-1 pt
Putin out as President of Russia by...?
June 30, 2027
10%
December 31, 2026
3%
2 outcomes$28.4M vol
Geopolitics-1 pt
Iran leadership change by...?
June 30, 2027
23%
December 31
12%
November 30
6%
4 outcomes$27.1M vol
Geopolitics-1 pt
Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027?
6%
Very unlikely$26.9M vol
Geopolitics-1 pt
Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by...?
4%
Very unlikely$22.2M vol
Geopolitics-1 pt
Balance of Power: 2026 Midterms
Democrats Sweep
63%
R Senate, D House
28%
Republicans Sweep
9%
5 outcomes$20.6M vol
Geopolitics+1 pt
US-Iran Final Nuclear Deal by…?
December 31
14%
November 30
9%
October 31
3%
3 outcomes$19.7M vol
Geopolitics-1 pt
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by...?
December 31
7%
October 31
1%
2 outcomes$18.0M vol
Geopolitics
Highest grossing movie in 2026?
Spider-Man: Brand New Day
96%
Avengers: Doomsday
4%
Dune: Messiah
0%
14 outcomes$17.6M vol
Geopolitics-2 pts
Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by...?
December 31
16%
October 31
6%
2 outcomes$16.6M vol
Geopoliticsflat
Xi Jinping out before 2027?
3%
Very unlikely$14.5M vol
Geopolitics-2 pts
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?
19%
Unlikely$14.4M vol
Geopoliticsflat
Will the U.S. invade Venezuela by...?
3%
Very unlikely$14.2M vol
Geopolitics+1 pt
Trump out as President before 2027?
4%
Very unlikely$12.4M vol
Geopoliticsflat
Will Reza Pahlavi lead Iran in 2026?
3%
Very unlikely$11.8M vol
Geopolitics+1 pt
Will the US acquire part of Greenland in 2026?
4%
Very unlikely$10.9M vol
Geopolitics+1 pt
Iran full airspace closure by...?
December 31
24%
October 31
8%
2 outcomes$10.1M vol
Geopolitics+2 pts
Next Prime Minister of Sweden
Magdalena Andersson
80%
Ulf Kristersson
16%
Ebba Busch
2%
10 outcomes$9.9M vol
Geopolitics
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by...?
December 31, 2027
34%
June 30, 2027
32%
March 31, 2027
23%
4 outcomes$8.5M vol
Geopolitics
NATO x Russia military clash by...?
December 31
23%
October 31
9%
2 outcomes$8.4M vol
Geopolitics+1 pt
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by...?
December 31, 2027
69%
November 30, 2027
67%
October 31, 2027
64%
15 outcomes$8.4M vol
Geopoliticsflat
Measles cases in U.S. in 2026?
↑4k
99%
↑4.5k
98%
↑4.75k
94%
11 outcomes$8.1M vol
Geopoliticsflat
Will the US officially declare war on Iran by...?
3%
Very unlikely$7.8M vol
Geopolitics
US-Iran ceasefire continues through...?
October 9
98%
October 12
94%
October 15
93%
7 outcomes$7.6M vol
Geopolitics-2 pts
US military action against Cuba by...?
13%
Unlikely$7.6M vol
Geopolitics-7 pts
How many different countries will Israel strike in 2026?
4
71%
5
13%
6
3%
12 outcomes$7.6M vol
Geopolitics+1 pt
Mojtaba Khamenei public appearance by...?
December 31
20%
October 31
6%
2 outcomes$7.3M vol
Geopolitics+14 pts
What will the Fed rate be at the end of 2026?
4.25%
69%
4.0%
19%
≥ 4.5%
10%
15 outcomes$6.9M vol
Geopolitics-1 pt
Will US withdraw from NATO by...?
3%
Very unlikely$6.3M vol
Geopolitics
Russia nuclear test by...?
5%
Very unlikely$6.3M vol
Geopolitics
Will Russia invade a NATO country by...?
6%
Very unlikely$5.5M vol
Geopolitics
Crude Oil all time high by...?
March 31, 2027
28%
December 31
11%
2 outcomes$4.8M vol
Geopolitics+40 pts
MLB: 2026 American League Champion
Tampa Bay Rays
65%
Chicago White Sox
23%
Cleveland Guardians
11%
3 outcomes$4.6M vol
Geopolitics+20 pts
MLB: 2026 National League Champion
Los Angeles Dodgers
62%
Milwaukee Brewers
39%
2 outcomes$4.3M vol
Geopolitics-1 pt
Will Ukraine recapture Crimean territory by...?
June 30, 2027
9%
December 31
3%
2 outcomes$4.2M vol
Geopolitics+2 pts
Israel x Hamas ceasefire cancelled by...?
9%
Very unlikely$4.1M vol
Geopolitics-2 pts
Will Hamas agree to disarm by...?
11%
Unlikely$3.8M vol
Geopolitics-9 pts
Fed rate cut by...?
July 2027 Meeting
51%
June 2027 Meeting
37%
April 2027 Meeting
33%
7 outcomes$3.8M vol
Geopolitics
Where will Zelenskyy and Putin meet next before 2027?
No meeting before 2027
94%
US
2%
Qatar / UAE
1%
14 outcomes$3.7M vol
Geopolitics-1 pt
Iran charges Hormuz fees by...?
December 31
21%
October 31
9%
2 outcomes$3.5M vol
Geopolitics-2 pts
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by...?
3%
Very unlikely$3.5M vol
Geopoliticsflat
Will the U.S. invade Cuba in 2026?
5%
Very unlikely$3.5M vol
Geopolitics-4 pts
US strike on Mexico by...?
4%
Very unlikely$3.5M vol
Geopoliticsflat
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027?
5%
Very unlikely$3.5M vol
Geopolitics-1 pt
Will China invade Taiwan by December 31, 2027?
12%
Unlikely$3.5M vol
Geopolitics
Zelenskyy out as Ukraine president by end of 2026?
6%
Very unlikely$3.4M vol
Geopolitics
Will Russia capture Lyman by...?
6%
Very unlikely$3.1M vol
Geopolitics+3 pts
Will Hezbollah disarm by...?
8%
Very unlikely$3.1M vol
Geopolitics+8 pts
Fed Decision in December?
25 bps increase
76%
No change
23%
50+ bps increase
3%
5 outcomes$2.9M vol
Geopolitics+2 pts
Israel x Hamas Ceasefire Phase II by...?
14%
Unlikely$2.9M vol
Geopolitics
Iran-Oman Hormuz Management Agreement by...?
December 31
37%
November 30
34%
October 31
20%
3 outcomes$2.9M vol
Geopolitics-1 pt
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027?
8%
Very unlikely$2.8M vol
Geopolitics
Nicolás Maduro released from custody by...?
5%
Very unlikely$2.7M vol
Geopoliticsflat
Ukraine recognizes Russian sovereignty over its territory by...?
2%
Very unlikely$2.7M vol
Geopolitics+1 pt
Ukraine election held by...?
3%
Very unlikely$2.5M vol
Geopoliticsflat
OpenAI IPO Closing Market Cap
No IPO by December 31, 2026
95%
1.5T+
1%
1.25T–1.5T
1%
7 outcomes$2.4M vol
Geopolitics-1 pt
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by...?
13%
Unlikely$2.3M vol
Geopolitics-5 pts
Miguel Díaz-Canel out as leader of Cuba by...?
10%
Very unlikely$2.3M vol
Geopolitics+8 pts
US strike on Colombia by...?
25%
Unlikely$2.2M vol
Geopolitics-3 pts
Russia x Ukraine Ceasefire by...?
December 31
10%
October 31
3%
2 outcomes$2.2M vol
Geopoliticsflat
Will Alberta join the US?
1%
Very unlikely$2.2M vol
Geopolitics-3 pts
Israel and Syria normalize relations by...?
5%
Very unlikely$2.2M vol
Geopolitics+2 pts
Iran coup attempt by...?
11%
Unlikely$2.1M vol
Geopolitics-2 pts
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by...?
2%
Very unlikely$2.1M vol
Geopolitics
Will Russia capture all of Kostyantynivka by...?
June 30, 2027
67%
March 31, 2027
49%
December 31
17%
5 outcomes$1.9M vol
Geopolitics-1 pt
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by October 31?
2%
Very unlikely$1.9M vol
Geopolitics-3 pts
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by December 31?
11%
Unlikely$1.9M vol
Geopolitics-2 pts
What will Fed Rate hit before 2027?
↑ 4.25%
77%
↑ 4.5%
9%
↑ 4.75%
7%
20 outcomes$1.9M vol
Geopolitics+1 pt
Ukraine election called by...?
5%
Very unlikely$1.9M vol
Geopoliticsflat
Mohammed bin Salman out as leader of Saudi Arabia by...?
4%
Very unlikely$1.8M vol
Geopoliticsflat
US x Russia military clash by...?
3%
Very unlikely$1.8M vol
Geopolitics-2 pts
Cuban regime falls in 2026?
10%
Very unlikely$1.8M vol
Geopolitics+5 pts
Where will Trump and Putin meet next in 2026?
China
78%
No meeting by December 31
19%
United States
2%
15 outcomes$1.8M vol
Geopolitics-1 pt
Israel ground operation in Iran confirmed by...?
8%
Very unlikely$1.8M vol
Geopolitics+8 pts
Which country will join Abraham Accords before 2027?
Somaliland
17%
Jordan
8%
Kuwait
8%
12 outcomes$1.7M vol
Geopolitics-8 pts
US-Iran Hormuz Agreement by...?
December 31
40%
November 30
27%
October 31
19%
4 outcomes$1.7M vol
Geopolitics-8 pts
How many different countries will the US conduct military action against in 2026?
8
58%
9
32%
10
10%
8 outcomes$1.7M vol
Geopolitics — frequently asked
What is the most likely geopolitics outcome right now?
The most actively traded geopolitics question is “Netanyahu out by...?”, currently at 38% on the market.
How often do geopolitics odds update?
WillThisHappen refreshes probabilities from the underlying prediction market roughly every 15 minutes, and shows the 7-day change so you can see which way sentiment is moving.
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