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Topic
Geopolitics & Conflict
Wars, ceasefires, treaties and cross-border risk, priced by the market.
90 live questions · odds as of Oct 5, 2026
Geopolitics-1 pt
Netanyahu out by...?
39%
Leaning no$124.5M vol
Geopolitics+7 pts
Venezuela leader end of 2026?
Nicolás Maduro
71%
Delcy Rodríguez
25%
No Head of State
3%
16 outcomes$98.1M vol
Geopolitics+1 pt
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by...?
December 31
7%
October 31
1%
2 outcomes$75.4M vol
Geopolitics+1 pt
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?
16%
Unlikely$71.9M vol
Geopolitics-1 pt
How many Fed rate cuts in 2026?
0 (0 bps)
96%
1 (25 bps)
2%
2 (50 bps)
1%
13 outcomes$53.9M vol
Geopolitics+4 pts
Ballon d'Or Winner 2026
Harry Kane
47%
Lamine Yamal
45%
Kylian Mbappé
2%
19 outcomes$44.4M vol
Geopolitics-1 pt
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026?
2%
Very unlikely$43.6M vol
Geopolitics-3 pts
Prime Minister of Israel after the next election?
Gadi Eizenkot
48%
Benjamin Netanyahu
36%
Naftali Bennett
11%
19 outcomes$43.2M vol
Geopoliticsflat
Iran leader end of 2026?
Mojtaba Khamenei
88%
No Head of State
5%
Reza Pahlavi
3%
24 outcomes$39.9M vol
Geopolitics-6 pts
US announces end of Iranian blockade by...?
March 31
71%
December 31
51%
November 30
35%
5 outcomes$35.9M vol
Geopolitics
Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through...?
October 31
85%
November 30
72%
December 31
63%
3 outcomes$32.7M vol
Geopoliticsflat
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by...?
6%
Very unlikely$29.5M vol
Geopolitics-1 pt
Putin out as President of Russia by...?
June 30, 2027
11%
December 31, 2026
3%
2 outcomes$27.3M vol
Geopolitics
Iran leadership change by...?
June 30, 2027
23%
December 31
11%
November 30
6%
4 outcomes$26.8M vol
Geopolitics
Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027?
7%
Very unlikely$26.8M vol
Geopolitics+48 pts
Fed Decision in October?
No change
79%
25 bps increase
22%
25 bps decrease
0%
5 outcomes$26.1M vol
Geopolitics-2 pts
Nobel Peace Prize Winner 2026
Sudan's Emergency Response Rooms
14%
Mykola Kuleba
10%
Save the Children
7%
24 outcomes$26.1M vol
Geopoliticsflat
Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by...?
4%
Very unlikely$22.2M vol
Geopolitics-3 pts
US-Iran Final Nuclear Deal by…?
December 31
13%
November 30
9%
October 31
3%
3 outcomes$19.6M vol
Geopolitics+5 pts
Balance of Power: 2026 Midterms
Democrats Sweep
66%
R Senate, D House
27%
Republicans Sweep
8%
5 outcomes$18.1M vol
Geopolitics
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by...?
December 31
8%
October 31
3%
2 outcomes$18.0M vol
Geopolitics+1 pt
Highest grossing movie in 2026?
Spider-Man: Brand New Day
96%
Avengers: Doomsday
4%
The Odyssey
0%
14 outcomes$17.6M vol
Geopolitics-2 pts
Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by...?
December 31
17%
October 31
6%
September 30
0%
3 outcomes$16.4M vol
Geopolitics-1 pt
Xi Jinping out before 2027?
2%
Very unlikely$14.4M vol
Geopoliticsflat
Will the U.S. invade Venezuela by...?
3%
Very unlikely$14.2M vol
Geopolitics-5 pts
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?
19%
Unlikely$14.2M vol
Geopolitics-1 pt
Trump out as President before 2027?
4%
Very unlikely$12.4M vol
Geopoliticsflat
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by September 30?
0%
Very unlikely$12.3M vol
Geopoliticsflat
Will Reza Pahlavi lead Iran in 2026?
3%
Very unlikely$11.8M vol
Geopolitics+1 pt
Will the US acquire part of Greenland in 2026?
3%
Very unlikely$10.9M vol
Geopolitics-3 pts
Iran full airspace closure by...?
December 31
20%
October 31
4%
2 outcomes$10.1M vol
Geopolitics+4 pts
Next Prime Minister of Sweden
Magdalena Andersson
81%
Ulf Kristersson
14%
Ebba Busch
2%
10 outcomes$9.8M vol
Geopolitics
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by...?
March 31, 2027
17%
December 31, 2027
15%
June 30, 2027
14%
4 outcomes$8.5M vol
Geopolitics-6 pts
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by...?
December 31, 2027
65%
November 30, 2027
65%
October 31, 2027
63%
15 outcomes$8.3M vol
Geopolitics-7 pts
NATO x Russia military clash by...?
December 31
22%
October 31
9%
2 outcomes$8.3M vol
Geopolitics+1 pt
Measles cases in U.S. in 2026?
↑4k
99%
↑4.5k
98%
↑4.75k
94%
11 outcomes$8.1M vol
Geopoliticsflat
Will the US officially declare war on Iran by...?
2%
Very unlikely$7.8M vol
Geopolitics-3 pts
US military action against Cuba by...?
13%
Unlikely$7.6M vol
Geopoliticsflat
How many different countries will Israel strike in 2026?
4
78%
5
13%
6
4%
12 outcomes$7.6M vol
Geopolitics
Mojtaba Khamenei public appearance by...?
December 31
19%
October 31
7%
2 outcomes$7.3M vol
Geopolitics+9 pts
What will the Fed rate be at the end of 2026?
4.25%
48%
4.0%
20%
≥ 4.5%
13%
15 outcomes$6.9M vol
Geopolitics+1 pt
Will US withdraw from NATO by...?
3%
Very unlikely$6.3M vol
Geopolitics-1 pt
Russia nuclear test by...?
5%
Very unlikely$6.3M vol
Geopolitics
US-Iran ceasefire continues through...?
October 5
99%
October 7
97%
October 9
94%
9 outcomes$6.2M vol
Geopolitics
Will Russia invade a NATO country by...?
6%
Very unlikely$5.5M vol
Geopolitics
Crude Oil all time high by...?
10%
Very unlikely$4.7M vol
Geopolitics+9 pts
MLB: 2026 American League Champion
Tampa Bay Rays
37%
New York Yankees
24%
Chicago White Sox
21%
4 outcomes$4.6M vol
Geopolitics-1 pt
Will Ukraine recapture Crimean territory by...?
June 30, 2027
9%
December 31
3%
2 outcomes$4.1M vol
Geopolitics+14 pts
MLB: 2026 National League Champion
Milwaukee Brewers
40%
Los Angeles Dodgers
38%
Atlanta Braves
18%
4 outcomes$4.1M vol
Geopolitics
Israel x Hamas ceasefire cancelled by...?
6%
Very unlikely$4.1M vol
Geopolitics-4 pts
Will Hamas agree to disarm by...?
13%
Unlikely$3.8M vol
Geopolitics+10 pts
Fed rate cut by...?
July 2027 Meeting
54%
June 2027 Meeting
36%
April 2027 Meeting
30%
7 outcomes$3.7M vol
Geopolitics+2 pts
Where will Zelenskyy and Putin meet next before 2027?
No meeting before 2027
94%
Qatar / UAE
2%
US
2%
14 outcomes$3.7M vol
Geopolitics-5 pts
Iran charges Hormuz fees by...?
December 31
17%
October 31
6%
2 outcomes$3.5M vol
Geopolitics-1 pt
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by...?
5%
Very unlikely$3.5M vol
Geopolitics-3 pts
US strike on Mexico by...?
6%
Very unlikely$3.5M vol
Geopolitics-1 pt
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027?
5%
Very unlikely$3.4M vol
Geopolitics-1 pt
Will the U.S. invade Cuba in 2026?
5%
Very unlikely$3.4M vol
Geopolitics-1 pt
Will China invade Taiwan by December 31, 2027?
12%
Unlikely$3.4M vol
Geopolitics-2 pts
Zelenskyy out as Ukraine president by end of 2026?
5%
Very unlikely$3.4M vol
Geopoliticsflat
Will Russia capture Lyman by...?
5%
Very unlikely$3.1M vol
Geopolitics
Will Hezbollah disarm by...?
6%
Very unlikely$3.1M vol
Geopoliticsflat
Israel x Hamas Ceasefire Phase II by...?
13%
Unlikely$2.9M vol
Geopolitics+1 pt
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027?
9%
Very unlikely$2.8M vol
Geopolitics-17 pts
Iran-Oman Hormuz Management Agreement by...?
13%
Unlikely$2.8M vol
Geopolitics
Nicolás Maduro released from custody by...?
5%
Very unlikely$2.7M vol
Geopolitics-4 pts
Fed Decision in December?
25 bps increase
74%
No change
22%
50+ bps increase
3%
5 outcomes$2.7M vol
Geopoliticsflat
Ukraine recognizes Russian sovereignty over its territory by...?
2%
Very unlikely$2.7M vol
Geopoliticsflat
Ukraine election held by...?
2%
Very unlikely$2.5M vol
Geopolitics-1 pt
OpenAI IPO Closing Market Cap
No IPO by December 31, 2026
95%
1.5T+
1%
1.25T–1.5T
1%
7 outcomes$2.4M vol
Geopolitics
Saudi Oil Pipeline (East-West) restarts by...?
November 30
74%
November 15
64%
October 31
53%
4 outcomes$2.4M vol
Geopolitics+3 pts
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by...?
13%
Unlikely$2.3M vol
Geopolitics-2 pts
Miguel Díaz-Canel out as leader of Cuba by...?
13%
Unlikely$2.2M vol
Geopolitics-3 pts
US strike on Colombia by...?
14%
Unlikely$2.2M vol
Geopoliticsflat
Will Alberta join the US?
1%
Very unlikely$2.2M vol
Geopolitics-3 pts
Russia x Ukraine Ceasefire by...?
December 31
11%
October 31
3%
2 outcomes$2.2M vol
Geopolitics-4 pts
Israel and Syria normalize relations by...?
5%
Very unlikely$2.2M vol
Geopolitics
Iran coup attempt by...?
10%
Very unlikely$2.1M vol
Geopolitics-2 pts
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by...?
3%
Very unlikely$2.1M vol
Geopolitics
Will Russia capture all of Kostyantynivka by...?
June 30, 2027
64%
March 31, 2027
44%
December 31
14%
5 outcomes$1.9M vol
Geopolitics-4 pts
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by December 31?
13%
Unlikely$1.9M vol
Geopolitics-17 pts
What will Fed Rate hit before 2027?
↑ 4.25%
72%
↑ 4.5%
18%
↑ 4.75%
5%
20 outcomes$1.9M vol
Geopoliticsflat
Ukraine election called by...?
6%
Very unlikely$1.9M vol
Geopoliticsflat
Mohammed bin Salman out as leader of Saudi Arabia by...?
4%
Very unlikely$1.8M vol
Geopoliticsflat
US x Russia military clash by...?
4%
Very unlikely$1.8M vol
Geopolitics-2 pts
Cuban regime falls in 2026?
9%
Very unlikely$1.8M vol
Geopolitics+1 pt
Israel ground operation in Iran confirmed by...?
10%
Very unlikely$1.8M vol
Geopolitics-3 pts
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by October 31?
3%
Very unlikely$1.8M vol
Geopoliticsflat
How many different countries will the US conduct military action against in 2026?
8
62%
9
30%
10
7%
8 outcomes$1.7M vol
Geopolitics+3 pts
Which country will join Abraham Accords before 2027?
Jordan
9%
Kuwait
9%
Somaliland
9%
12 outcomes$1.7M vol
Geopolitics — frequently asked
What is the most likely geopolitics outcome right now?
The most actively traded geopolitics question is “Netanyahu out by...?”, currently at 39% on the market.
How often do geopolitics odds update?
WillThisHappen refreshes probabilities from the underlying prediction market roughly every 15 minutes, and shows the 7-day change so you can see which way sentiment is moving.
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