🌍
Topic
Geopolitics & Conflict
Wars, ceasefires, treaties and cross-border risk, priced by the market.
90 live questions · odds as of Aug 21, 2026
Geopolitics+5 pts
Netanyahu out by...?
49%
Toss-up$124.1M vol
Geopoliticsflat
Venezuela leader end of 2026?
Nicolás Maduro
82%
Delcy Rodríguez
10%
María Corina Machado
2%
16 outcomes$95.7M vol
Geopolitics-1 pt
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by...?
December 31
8%
September 30
3%
August 31
1%
3 outcomes$71.3M vol
Geopolitics-1 pt
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?
17%
Unlikely$59.2M vol
Geopolitics+1 pt
How many Fed rate cuts in 2026?
0 (0 bps)
87%
1 (25 bps)
10%
2 (50 bps)
4%
13 outcomes$49.2M vol
Geopoliticsflat
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026?
4%
Very unlikely$39.9M vol
Geopolitics+2 pts
Iran leader end of 2026?
Mojtaba Khamenei
83%
No Head of State
4%
Reza Pahlavi
3%
24 outcomes$38.7M vol
Geopolitics+3 pts
Who will be the next Prime Minister of Israel after the next election?
Gadi Eizenkot
56%
Benjamin Netanyahu
28%
Naftali Bennett
6%
18 outcomes$32.8M vol
Geopolitics+2 pts
Ballon d'Or Winner 2026
Harry Kane
61%
Lamine Yamal
15%
Rodri
9%
24 outcomes$29.9M vol
Geopolitics-2 pts
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by...?
December 31
6%
September 30
2%
August 31
0%
3 outcomes$29.1M vol
Geopolitics
Israel closes its airspace by...?
September 30
9%
August 31
3%
2 outcomes$27.3M vol
Geopolitics+2 pts
Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through...?
August 31
96%
September 30
82%
October 31
74%
4 outcomes$26.1M vol
Geopolitics
Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027?
7%
Very unlikely$24.8M vol
Geopolitics-1 pt
Iran leadership change by...?
June 30, 2027
25%
December 31
16%
November 30
10%
7 outcomes$23.7M vol
Geopolitics+1 pt
Nobel Peace Prize Winner 2026
Yulia Navalnaya
9%
Volodymyr Zelenskyy
5%
UNRWA
4%
20 outcomes$23.5M vol
Geopolitics-1 pt
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by...?
0%
Very unlikely$22.7M vol
Geopolitics
Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by...?
6%
Very unlikely$21.8M vol
Geopolitics
Putin out as President of Russia by...?
June 30, 2027
13%
December 31, 2026
8%
September 30, 2026
2%
4 outcomes$21.4M vol
Geopolitics+2 pts
Which party will gain most seats in Russian Parliamentary Election?
United Russia (ER)
72%
New People (NL)
22%
Liberal Democratic Party of Russia (LDPR)
6%
8 outcomes$21.3M vol
Geopolitics-12 pts
US announces end of Iranian blockade by...?
December 31
66%
October 31
42%
September 30
25%
8 outcomes$18.0M vol
Geopolitics
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by...?
December 31
8%
October 31
3%
August 31
0%
3 outcomes$17.8M vol
Geopolitics
Highest grossing movie in 2026?
Spider-Man: Brand New Day
93%
Avengers: Doomsday
7%
The Super Mario Galaxy Movie
0%
14 outcomes$17.2M vol
Geopolitics-11 pts
US-Iran Final Nuclear Deal by…?
December 31
8%
November 30
6%
October 31
4%
5 outcomes$16.0M vol
Geopolitics-1 pt
Will the U.S. invade Venezuela by...?
4%
Very unlikely$14.2M vol
Geopoliticsflat
Xi Jinping out before 2027?
4%
Very unlikely$12.3M vol
Geopolitics-1 pt
Will Reza Pahlavi lead Iran in 2026?
3%
Very unlikely$11.7M vol
Geopolitics+5 pts
Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by...?
December 31
22%
October 31
13%
September 30
9%
5 outcomes$10.9M vol
Geopolitics-1 pt
Trump out as President before 2027?
6%
Very unlikely$10.9M vol
Geopolitics
Will the US acquire part of Greenland in 2026?
6%
Very unlikely$10.6M vol
Geopolitics-1 pt
Balance of Power: 2026 Midterms
Democrats Sweep
49%
R Senate, D House
38%
Republicans Sweep
13%
5 outcomes$10.2M vol
Geopolitics
Next round of US-Iran peace talks by...?
March 31, 2027
62%
December 31, 2026
45%
September 30, 2026
19%
4 outcomes$9.7M vol
Geopolitics-15 pts
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?
31%
Unlikely$8.8M vol
Geopolitics-2 pts
Iran full airspace closure by...?
December 31
31%
September 30
13%
August 31
4%
3 outcomes$8.5M vol
Geopolitics-2 pts
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by...?
December 31
9%
September 30
2%
August 31
1%
3 outcomes$8.4M vol
Geopolitics+2 pts
Measles cases in U.S. in 2026?
↑3k
97%
↑3.5k
93%
↑4k
81%
8 outcomes$7.8M vol
Geopoliticsflat
Will the US officially declare war on Iran by...?
4%
Very unlikely$7.8M vol
Geopolitics+17 pts
How many different countries will Israel strike in 2026?
4
76%
5
16%
6
6%
12 outcomes$7.4M vol
Geopolitics-3 pts
US military action against Cuba by...?
17%
Unlikely$7.3M vol
Geopolitics-2 pts
Mojtaba Khamenei public appearance by...?
December 31
24%
September 30
8%
August 31
2%
3 outcomes$6.8M vol
Geopolitics-1 pt
Will US withdraw from NATO by...?
December 31
2%
August 31
0%
2 outcomes$6.3M vol
Geopoliticsflat
Russia nuclear test by...?
December 31, 2026
6%
September 30, 2026
2%
2 outcomes$6.2M vol
Geopolitics
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by...?
June 30, 2027
59%
March 31, 2027
38%
December 31
22%
5 outcomes$6.0M vol
Geopolitics+2 pts
NATO x Russia military clash by...?
December 31
25%
October 31
14%
August 31
5%
3 outcomes$5.8M vol
Geopolitics
Will Russia invade a NATO country by...?
6%
Very unlikely$5.4M vol
Geopolitics-9 pts
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by September 30?
6%
Very unlikely$5.1M vol
Geopolitics+16 pts
Where will the next next round of US-Iran peace talks be...?
No Meeting by September 30
81%
Switzerland
10%
Qatar
4%
19 outcomes$5.0M vol
Geopoliticsflat
MLB: 2026 American League Champion
New York Yankees
25%
Tampa Bay Rays
22%
Boston Red Sox
10%
15 outcomes$4.2M vol
Geopolitics
Israel x Hamas ceasefire cancelled by...?
15%
Unlikely$4.1M vol
Geopolitics-2 pts
MLB: 2026 National League Champion
Los Angeles Dodgers
45%
Milwaukee Brewers
17%
Atlanta Braves
13%
15 outcomes$3.9M vol
Geopolitics+4 pts
Next Prime Minister of Sweden
Magdalena Andersson
87%
Ulf Kristersson
12%
Ebba Busch
1%
10 outcomes$3.8M vol
Geopolitics+3 pts
Will Ukraine recapture Crimean territory by...?
June 30, 2027
12%
December 31
6%
2 outcomes$3.7M vol
Geopolitics-9 pts
Will Hamas agree to disarm by...?
27%
Unlikely$3.6M vol
Geopolitics-2 pts
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by...?
9%
Very unlikely$3.5M vol
Geopolitics+1 pt
US strike on Mexico by...?
14%
Unlikely$3.4M vol
Geopolitics
Will the U.S. invade Cuba in 2026?
8%
Very unlikely$3.3M vol
Geopoliticsflat
Russia Parliamentary Election Winner
United Russia (ER)
99%
Yabloko
1%
Communist Party of the Russian Federation (KPRF)
0%
8 outcomes$3.3M vol
Geopolitics+1 pt
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027?
8%
Very unlikely$3.2M vol
Geopolitics-12 pts
MLB: Home Runs Leader
Kyle Schwarber
35%
Yordan Alvarez
23%
Junior Caminero
21%
24 outcomes$3.1M vol
Geopoliticsflat
Where will Zelenskyy and Putin meet next before 2027?
No meeting before 2027
92%
Switzerland
3%
Turkey
1%
14 outcomes$3.1M vol
Geopolitics-4 pts
Will Hezbollah disarm by...?
10%
Very unlikely$3.1M vol
Geopolitics
Zelenskyy out as Ukraine president by end of 2026?
7%
Very unlikely$3.0M vol
Geopolitics-1 pt
Will Russia capture Lyman by...?
December 31
39%
September 30
7%
2 outcomes$2.9M vol
Geopolitics-8 pts
Israel x Hamas Ceasefire Phase II by...?
35%
Leaning no$2.9M vol
Geopolitics+1 pt
Will China invade Taiwan by December 31, 2027?
13%
Unlikely$2.9M vol
Geopolitics
Nicolás Maduro released from custody by...?
7%
Very unlikely$2.7M vol
Geopolitics+1 pt
Ukraine recognizes Russian sovereignty over its territory by...?
4%
Very unlikely$2.6M vol
Geopolitics+2 pts
Crude Oil all time high by...?
December 31
14%
September 30
3%
2 outcomes$2.6M vol
Geopolitics-2 pts
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027?
14%
Unlikely$2.6M vol
Geopoliticsflat
Ukraine election held by...?
6%
Very unlikely$2.5M vol
Geopolitics-4 pts
Iran charges Hormuz fees by...?
December 31
46%
October 31
32%
September 30
14%
4 outcomes$2.4M vol
Geopolitics-39 pts
LoL: EDward Gaming vs ThunderTalk Gaming (BO3) - LPL Group Ascend
Both Teams Destroy Inhibitors
10%
Any Player Quadra Kill
10%
Any Player Penta Kill
10%
5 outcomes$2.3M vol
Geopolitics+3 pts
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by...?
December 31
15%
September 30
3%
2 outcomes$2.3M vol
Geopolitics+1 pt
Will Alberta join the US?
3%
Very unlikely$2.2M vol
Geopolitics-5 pts
US strike on Colombia by...?
28%
Unlikely$2.2M vol
Geopolitics
Israel and Syria normalize relations by...?
11%
Unlikely$2.1M vol
Geopolitics-4 pts
Miguel Díaz-Canel out as leader of Cuba by...?
18%
Unlikely$2.1M vol
Geopolitics-4 pts
Iran coup attempt by...?
8%
Very unlikely$2.1M vol
Geopolitics+1 pt
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by...?
5%
Very unlikely$2.1M vol
Geopoliticsflat
Will China invade Taiwan by September 30, 2026?
1%
Very unlikely$2.0M vol
Geopolitics-4 pts
OpenAI IPO Closing Market Cap
No IPO by December 31, 2026
79%
1.5T+
6%
750B–1T
5%
7 outcomes$2.0M vol
Geopolitics+1 pt
US x Russia military clash by...?
4%
Very unlikely$1.8M vol
Geopoliticsflat
Mohammed bin Salman out as leader of Saudi Arabia by...?
4%
Very unlikely$1.8M vol
Geopolitics+4 pts
Ukraine election called by...?
December 31, 2026
17%
August 31, 2026
1%
2 outcomes$1.8M vol
Geopoliticsflat
MLB: ERA Leader
Max Fried
4%
Yoshinobu Yamamoto
3%
Hunter Brown
3%
24 outcomes$1.8M vol
Geopolitics
Israel ground operation in Iran confirmed by...?
December 31
18%
August 31
1%
2 outcomes$1.7M vol
Geopoliticsflat
Will the Iranian regime fall by September 30?
2%
Very unlikely$1.7M vol
Geopolitics-1 pt
How many different countries will the US conduct military action against in 2026?
8
61%
9
32%
10
4%
8 outcomes$1.6M vol
Geopolitics-2 pts
MLB: AL Rookie of the Year
Kevin McGonigle
85%
Munetaka Murakami
12%
Parker Messick
2%
23 outcomes$1.6M vol
Geopolitics-4 pts
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by December 31?
11%
Unlikely$1.6M vol
Geopolitics+3 pts
Cuban regime falls in 2026?
14%
Unlikely$1.6M vol
Geopolitics — frequently asked
What is the most likely geopolitics outcome right now?
The most actively traded geopolitics question is “Netanyahu out by...?”, currently at 49% on the market.
How often do geopolitics odds update?
WillThisHappen refreshes probabilities from the underlying prediction market roughly every 15 minutes, and shows the 7-day change so you can see which way sentiment is moving.
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