Who will attend a round of US-Iran peace talks by December 31?
23 outcomes · ranked
$1.8M tradedProbability over time
last 30 daysWhat this means
Across 23 outcomes, the market's favourite is Jared Kushner at 35%. Because these are separate markets, probabilities need not sum to exactly 100%.
How this resolves
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the listed individual attends any formal senior-level round of peace talks between representatives of the United States and Iran between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. A qualifying round must be a deliberate in-person diplomatic meeting or negotiating round concerning US-Iran relations, involving senior representatives of both the United States and Iran who are acting in an official capacity and are authorized to conduct or materially direct diplomacy on behalf of their governments. Indirect in-person diplomacy through designated mediators, facilitators, or interlocutors will qualify, provided senior representatives of both the United States and Iran are participating in the same formal diplomatic process with the knowledge and authorization of their respective governments. The repres…