Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?
12%chance of yes
Probability over time
last 30 daysWhat this means
Traders currently price this at 12% — the market's collective estimate that it happens. The market leans toward no. Over the last 7 days the odds moved -2 pts.
How this resolves
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the United States commences a military offensive intended to establish control over any portion of Iran by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". For the purposes of this market, land de facto controlled by Iran or the United States as of November 4, 2025 12:00 PM ET, will be considered the sovereign territory of that country. The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible sources.
Resolves: Dec 31, 2026
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