Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?
17%chance of yes
Probability over time
last 30 daysWhat this means
Traders currently price this at 17% — the market's collective estimate that it happens. The market leans toward no. The odds have been broadly stable over the last week.
How this resolves
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the United States commences a military offensive intended to establish control over any portion of Iran by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". For the purposes of this market, land de facto controlled by Iran or the United States as of November 4, 2025 12:00 PM ET, will be considered the sovereign territory of that country. The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible sources.
Resolves: Dec 31, 2026
More in Geopolitics
Geopolitics+5 pts
Netanyahu out by...?
49%
Toss-up$124.1M vol
Geopoliticsflat
Venezuela leader end of 2026?
Nicolás Maduro
82%
Delcy Rodríguez
10%
María Corina Machado
2%
16 outcomes$95.7M vol
Geopolitics-1 pt
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by...?
December 31
8%
September 30
3%
August 31
1%
3 outcomes$71.3M vol