🤖
Topic
Tech & AI
Model releases, product launches, IPOs and the pace of the AI build-out.
43 live questions · odds as of Aug 21, 2026
Tech & AI+23 pts
Which companies will be acquired before 2027?
PayPal
48%
MGM Resorts
40%
Viking Therapeutics
22%
14 outcomes$18.2M vol
Tech & AI-1 pt
IPOs before 2027?
SHEIN
98%
Anthropic
87%
Discord
29%
24 outcomes$7.1M vol
Tech & AI-17 pts
Largest IPO by market cap in 2026?
SpaceX
52%
Anthropic
48%
OpenAI
0%
12 outcomes$5.5M vol
Tech & AI+1 pt
Will Anthropic’s valuation hit __ by December 31?
↑$1.25T
97%
↑$1.5T
92%
↑$1.75T
80%
11 outcomes$3.9M vol
Tech & AI-2 pts
AI bubble burst by...?
12%
Unlikely$2.9M vol
Tech & AI+2 pts
OpenAI IPO by...?
December 31, 2026
19%
September 30, 2026
2%
August 31, 2026
0%
3 outcomes$2.9M vol
Tech & AI+2 pts
Which company has best AI model end of August?
Anthropic
98%
OpenAI
2%
Meta
0%
21 outcomes$2.3M vol
Tech & AI
Human moon landing in 2026?
1%
Very unlikely$2.0M vol
Tech & AI-1 pt
Richest person on December 31, 2026?
Elon Musk
97%
Jeff Bezos
1%
Warren Buffett
1%
10 outcomes$1.9M vol
Tech & AI+7 pts
Anthropic IPO by __?
December 31, 2026
89%
October 31, 2026
83%
October 15, 2026
49%
5 outcomes$1.8M vol
Tech & AI-6 pts
OpenAI IPO closing market cap above ___ ?
$800B
83%
$1T
76%
$1.2T
61%
5 outcomes$1.5M vol
Tech & AI-11 pts
GPT-6 released by…?
December 31, 2026
73%
November 30, 2026
60%
October 31, 2026
55%
7 outcomes$1.5M vol
Tech & AI
Next Google Gemini Pro Model released by...?
October 31
71%
September 30
36%
September 15
28%
5 outcomes$1.1M vol
Tech & AI
Tesla and SpaceX merger officially announced by...?
December 31, 2027
35%
June 30, 2027
28%
February 28, 2027
23%
6 outcomes$1.1M vol
Tech & AI+2 pts
Will OpenAI's valuation hit __ by December 31?
↑$900B
87%
↑$1.0T
68%
↑$1.25T
48%
15 outcomes$1.0M vol
Tech & AI+9 pts
SCOTUS accepts sports event contract case by...?
December 31
39%
October 31
14%
2 outcomes$975K vol
Tech & AIflat
Best Chinese AI Company end of August?
Alibaba
92%
Moonshot
4%
Z.ai
1%
11 outcomes$766K vol
Tech & AI+5 pts
Which company has best AI model end of 2026?
Anthropic
72%
OpenAI
9%
Google
8%
15 outcomes$749K vol
Tech & AIflat
GTA 6 launch postponed again?
9%
Very unlikely$686K vol
Tech & AIflat
FDA approves Retatrutide this year?
3%
Very unlikely$579K vol
Tech & AI-1 pt
Anthropic IPO Closing Market Cap (Lower Brackets)
600B+
95%
No IPO by December 31, 2027
3%
400–600B
1%
7 outcomes$423K vol
Tech & AI+12 pts
What kind of product will OpenAI announce in 2026?
Clip-on device for clothing
28%
Necklace
11%
Watch
10%
10 outcomes$412K vol
Tech & AI+3 pts
Which company has the best AI model end of September?
Anthropic
91%
OpenAI
4%
Google
2%
21 outcomes$384K vol
Tech & AI+10 pts
Will Anthropic or OpenAI IPO first?
96%
Near certain$308K vol
Tech & AI
OpenAI’s Astra released by…?
October 31
89%
September 30
83%
September 15
54%
4 outcomes$305K vol
Tech & AI+3 pts
Will Apple release a new product line before 2027?
31%
Unlikely$304K vol
Tech & AI-3 pts
OpenAI $1t+ IPO before 2027?
17%
Unlikely$298K vol
Tech & AI-5 pts
Will Apple release a foldable iPhone before 2027?
87%
Likely$282K vol
Tech & AI+20 pts
Next Google Gemini Pro Model released on...?
No release by August 31
92%
August 31
4%
August 27
3%
12 outcomes$281K vol
Tech & AI
Gemini 4.0 released by...?
November 30
77%
October 31
58%
September 30
19%
5 outcomes$213K vol
Tech & AI
Will a Chinese company have a top ___ AI model by December 31?
#3
35%
#1
10%
2 outcomes$207K vol
Tech & AI-1 pt
Will any AI model reach ___ Coding Arena Score by December 31?
1560
43%
1580
19%
1600
14%
3 outcomes$187K vol
Tech & AIflat
Will Apple release iPhone 18 in 2026?
99%
Near certain$173K vol
Tech & AI+7 pts
Next Mythos-Class Model released by…?
September 30
79%
September 15
60%
September 9
46%
4 outcomes$166K vol
Tech & AI
#1 Searched Person on Google 2026?
Bad Bunny
13%
Erling Haaland
12%
Donald Trump
9%
24 outcomes$159K vol
Tech & AI-1 pt
#1 Searched Movie on Google 2026?
The Odyssey
43%
Obsession
27%
Spider-Man: Brand New Day
16%
20 outcomes$156K vol
Tech & AI+46 pts
Second-best AI Lab end of August?
Google
84%
Meta
10%
Alibaba
4%
21 outcomes$155K vol
Tech & AI-2 pts
Will any AI model reach ___ Overall Arena Score by September 30?
1520
16%
1530
5%
1540
5%
4 outcomes$152K vol
Tech & AI+4 pts
Which airlines will announce bankruptcy by December 31?
JetBlue
9%
Frontier Airlines
7%
Alaska Airlines
3%
5 outcomes$149K vol
Tech & AI-2 pts
Perplexity IPO Closing Market Cap
No IPO before 2028
64%
<20B
8%
50B–75B
7%
8 outcomes$147K vol
Tech & AI-6 pts
Will any AI model reach ___ Overall Arena Score by December 31?
↑ 1520
56%
↑ 1530
27%
↑ 1540
17%
7 outcomes$144K vol
Tech & AI+3 pts
SpaceX Starship Flight Test 14
October 31
97%
September 30
94%
Super Heavy booster explodes?
79%
9 outcomes$132K vol
Tech & AI-5 pts
Which companies will have a #1 AI model by December 31?
OpenAI
30%
Google
17%
Alibaba
13%
14 outcomes$129K vol
Tech & AI — frequently asked
What is the most likely tech & ai outcome right now?
The most actively traded tech & ai question is “Which companies will be acquired before 2027?”, currently at 48% on the market.
How often do tech & ai odds update?
WillThisHappen refreshes probabilities from the underlying prediction market roughly every 15 minutes, and shows the 7-day change so you can see which way sentiment is moving.
Other topics
Start following the future.
Browse every probability free. Create an account to build a watchlist and get a weekly digest. Upgrade any time for alerts and API access.