🤖
Topic
Tech & AI
Model releases, product launches, IPOs and the pace of the AI build-out.
55 live questions · odds as of Oct 9, 2026
Tech & AIflat
Which companies will be acquired before 2027?
Viking Therapeutics
13%
PayPal
13%
Perplexity AI
11%
14 outcomes$18.4M vol
Tech & AI+1 pt
IPOs before 2027?
Anthropic
83%
Discord
9%
Freddie Mac
4%
24 outcomes$7.5M vol
Tech & AI+6 pts
Largest IPO by market cap in 2026?
Anthropic
55%
SpaceX
44%
OpenAI
1%
12 outcomes$6.5M vol
Tech & AI+1 pt
Will Anthropic’s valuation hit __ by December 31?
↑$1.5T
94%
↑$1.75T
82%
↑$2.0T
76%
10 outcomes$5.3M vol
Tech & AIflat
Anthropic IPO by __?
December 31, 2026
82%
December 15, 2026
77%
November 30, 2026
69%
6 outcomes$4.5M vol
Tech & AI-20 pts
Indiana enacts data center moratorium by...?
December 31, 2028
28%
December 31, 2027
11%
June 30, 2027
9%
4 outcomes$3.2M vol
Tech & AI-14 pts
OpenAI IPO by...?
June 30, 2027
41%
March 31, 2027
25%
December 31, 2026
4%
3 outcomes$3.0M vol
Tech & AI+1 pt
AI bubble burst by...?
June 30, 2027
19%
December 31, 2026
6%
2 outcomes$3.0M vol
Tech & AI+3 pts
Which company has best AI model end of 2026?
Google
43%
Anthropic
42%
OpenAI
6%
15 outcomes$2.4M vol
Tech & AI+5 pts
Which company has the best AI model end of October?
Google
70%
Anthropic
26%
OpenAI
1%
21 outcomes$2.1M vol
Tech & AIflat
Human moon landing in 2026?
1%
Very unlikely$2.0M vol
Tech & AIflat
Richest person on December 31, 2026?
Elon Musk
97%
Warren Buffett
1%
Jeff Bezos
0%
11 outcomes$1.9M vol
Tech & AI+1 pt
Anthropic announces bankruptcy by...?
December 31, 2029
22%
December 31, 2028
19%
December 31, 2027
10%
3 outcomes$1.6M vol
Tech & AI
Next Google Gemini Pro Model released by...?
December 31
37%
November 30
28%
October 31
10%
6 outcomes$1.6M vol
Tech & AI-4 pts
OpenAI IPO closing market cap above ___ ?
$800B
79%
$1T
73%
$1.2T
63%
5 outcomes$1.6M vol
Tech & AI-7 pts
Tesla and SpaceX merger officially announced by...?
December 31, 2027
56%
June 30, 2027
45%
February 28, 2027
24%
5 outcomes$1.3M vol
Tech & AI+1 pt
Gemini 4.0 released by...?
November 30
99%
October 31
86%
October 23
83%
10 outcomes$1.3M vol
Tech & AI-2 pts
Will OpenAI's valuation hit __ by December 31?
↑$1.25T
75%
↑$1.5T
26%
↓$800B
11%
13 outcomes$1.3M vol
Tech & AI+1 pt
Will Apple release a foldable iPhone by...?
October 31
100%
December 31
99%
2 outcomes$1.1M vol
Tech & AI-8 pts
SCOTUS accepts sports event contract case by...?
December 31
31%
October 31
3%
2 outcomes$995K vol
Tech & AI-1 pt
GTA 6 launch postponed again?
4%
Very unlikely$839K vol
Tech & AI+2 pts
OpenAI announces another Millennium Prize solution by...?
December 31, 2027
63%
December 31, 2026
19%
2 outcomes$791K vol
Tech & AI
Texas Tech vs. Colorado
50%
Toss-up$767K vol
Tech & AI-24 pts
Oklahoma enacts data center moratorium by...?
December 31, 2028
23%
December 31, 2027
17%
June 30, 2027
12%
4 outcomes$641K vol
Tech & AI+2 pts
FDA approves Retatrutide this year?
4%
Very unlikely$594K vol
Tech & AI+1 pt
Anthropic IPO Closing Market Cap (Lower Brackets)
600B+
96%
No IPO by December 31, 2027
3%
400–600B
1%
7 outcomes$521K vol
Tech & AI-18 pts
Ohio enacts data center moratorium by...?
December 31, 2028
27%
December 31, 2027
20%
June 30, 2027
14%
4 outcomes$464K vol
Tech & AI+4 pts
What kind of product will OpenAI announce in 2026?
Earbuds/Headphones
16%
Clip-on device for clothing
12%
Glasses
12%
10 outcomes$452K vol
Tech & AI-19 pts
Missouri enacts data center moratorium by...?
December 31, 2028
26%
December 31, 2027
14%
June 30, 2027
12%
4 outcomes$432K vol
Tech & AI-21 pts
Texas enacts data center moratorium by...?
December 31, 2028
27%
December 31, 2027
17%
June 30, 2027
14%
4 outcomes$425K vol
Tech & AIflat
Will Anthropic or OpenAI IPO first?
96%
Near certain$422K vol
Tech & AI
AI lab announces another Millennium Prize solution by...?
December 31, 2027
75%
December 31, 2026
24%
2 outcomes$412K vol
Tech & AI-20 pts
Louisiana enacts data center moratorium by...?
December 31, 2028
20%
December 31, 2027
14%
June 30, 2027
13%
4 outcomes$401K vol
Tech & AI+1 pt
In which month will Anthropic IPO?
November 2026
69%
December 2026
14%
February 2027
5%
16 outcomes$353K vol
Tech & AI+16 pts
Will Apple release a new product line before 2027?
77%
Likely$332K vol
Tech & AIflat
OpenAI $1t+ IPO before 2027?
3%
Very unlikely$316K vol
Tech & AI-4 pts
OpenAI announces it has achieved AGI before 2027?
16%
Unlikely$312K vol
Tech & AI-7 pts
#1 Searched Person on Google 2026?
Lindsay Clancy
21%
Erling Haaland
16%
Bad Bunny
10%
24 outcomes$312K vol
Tech & AI-1 pt
OpenAI announces bankruptcy by...?
December 31, 2029
19%
December 31, 2028
16%
December 31, 2027
8%
3 outcomes$294K vol
Tech & AI+11 pts
When will the next Google Gemini Pro model be released?
No release by November 1
92%
October 12–October 18
5%
October 19–October 25
3%
5 outcomes$274K vol
Tech & AI+10 pts
Will a Chinese company have a top ___ AI model by December 31?
#3
23%
#1
8%
2 outcomes$272K vol
Tech & AI+9 pts
Next Google Gemini Pro Model: Arena Debut?
1480+
42%
1490+
36%
1495+
35%
5 outcomes$258K vol
Tech & AI+5 pts
How many more Millennium Prize Problems will AI solve in 2026?
0
77%
1
16%
2
3%
6 outcomes$254K vol
Tech & AI+1 pt
NuScale announces bankruptcy by...?
December 31, 2029
25%
December 31, 2028
20%
December 31, 2027
11%
3 outcomes$252K vol
Tech & AI-5 pts
Which Millennium Prize Problem will AI solve next?
Hodge Conjecture
31%
No solution by Dec 31, 2027
30%
Birch and Swinnerton-Dyer
23%
6 outcomes$243K vol
Tech & AI-8 pts
Which company has the best AI model end of November?
Google
50%
Anthropic
41%
Meta
3%
21 outcomes$240K vol
Tech & AI+3 pts
Will any AI model reach ___ Coding Arena Score by December 31?
1560
49%
1580
17%
1600
6%
3 outcomes$236K vol
Tech & AI-3 pts
#1 Searched Movie on Google 2026?
The Odyssey
40%
Obsession
39%
Spider-Man: Brand New Day
12%
20 outcomes$233K vol
Tech & AI-6 pts
Will any AI model reach ___ Overall Arena Score by December 31?
↑ 1540
41%
↑ 1550
23%
↑ 1700
4%
5 outcomes$223K vol
Tech & AI+2 pts
Next Fable Model (5.2+) released by...?
December 31
97%
October 31
85%
October 24
73%
9 outcomes$216K vol
Tech & AI
Which companies will have a #1 AI model by December 31?
Anthropic
63%
OpenAI
12%
Meta
9%
14 outcomes$207K vol
Tech & AI+3 pts
GPT Astra 6.1+ released by...?
December 31
95%
October 31
14%
October 23
13%
5 outcomes$205K vol
Tech & AI
U.S. enacts AI safety bill before 2027?
5%
Very unlikely$199K vol
Tech & AI+1 pt
#1 Searched Person on Google in the US 2026?
Lindsay Clancy
37%
Nicolás Maduro
21%
Nancy Guthrie
11%
24 outcomes$198K vol
Tech & AI+1 pt
Best Chinese AI Company end of October?
Xiaomi
43%
Alibaba
33%
Moonshot
14%
11 outcomes$189K vol
Tech & AI — frequently asked
What is the most likely tech & ai outcome right now?
The most actively traded tech & ai question is “Which companies will be acquired before 2027?”, currently at 13% on the market.
How often do tech & ai odds update?
WillThisHappen refreshes probabilities from the underlying prediction market roughly every 15 minutes, and shows the 7-day change so you can see which way sentiment is moving.
Other topics
Start following the future.
Browse every probability free. Create an account to build a watchlist and get a weekly digest. Upgrade any time for alerts and API access.