🤖
Topic
Tech & AI
Model releases, product launches, IPOs and the pace of the AI build-out.
56 live questions · odds as of Oct 6, 2026
Tech & AI-1 pt
Which companies will be acquired before 2027?
Viking Therapeutics
12%
PayPal
12%
Brown-Forman
8%
14 outcomes$18.3M vol
Tech & AI+8 pts
IPOs before 2027?
Anthropic
84%
Discord
5%
Anduril Industries
4%
24 outcomes$7.5M vol
Tech & AI+7 pts
Largest IPO by market cap in 2026?
Anthropic
51%
SpaceX
45%
OpenAI
1%
12 outcomes$6.5M vol
Tech & AI+3 pts
Will Anthropic’s valuation hit __ by December 31?
↑$1.5T
94%
↑$1.75T
82%
↑$2.0T
74%
10 outcomes$5.3M vol
Tech & AI+6 pts
Anthropic IPO by __?
December 31, 2026
82%
December 15, 2026
81%
November 30, 2026
68%
6 outcomes$4.4M vol
Tech & AI-12 pts
OpenAI IPO by...?
June 30, 2027
46%
March 31, 2027
25%
December 31, 2026
4%
3 outcomes$3.0M vol
Tech & AI+4 pts
AI bubble burst by...?
June 30, 2027
20%
December 31, 2026
7%
2 outcomes$3.0M vol
Tech & AI
Indiana enacts data center moratorium by...?
December 31, 2028
14%
December 31, 2027
10%
June 30, 2027
9%
4 outcomes$2.8M vol
Tech & AI-29 pts
Which company has best AI model end of 2026?
Anthropic
46%
Google
41%
OpenAI
5%
15 outcomes$2.2M vol
Tech & AI+1 pt
Human moon landing in 2026?
2%
Very unlikely$2.0M vol
Tech & AIflat
Richest person on December 31, 2026?
Elon Musk
97%
Warren Buffett
1%
Mark Zuckerberg
0%
11 outcomes$1.9M vol
Tech & AI+57 pts
Which company has the best AI model end of October?
Google
66%
Anthropic
33%
OpenAI
1%
21 outcomes$1.9M vol
Tech & AI+1 pt
Anthropic announces bankruptcy by...?
December 31, 2029
22%
December 31, 2028
19%
December 31, 2027
10%
3 outcomes$1.6M vol
Tech & AI
Next Google Gemini Pro Model released by...?
December 31
36%
November 30
30%
October 31
22%
6 outcomes$1.6M vol
Tech & AI+4 pts
OpenAI IPO closing market cap above ___ ?
$800B
79%
$1T
69%
$1.4T
65%
5 outcomes$1.6M vol
Tech & AI-5 pts
Tesla and SpaceX merger officially announced by...?
December 31, 2027
60%
June 30, 2027
43%
February 28, 2027
24%
5 outcomes$1.3M vol
Tech & AI+27 pts
Will OpenAI's valuation hit __ by December 31?
↑$1.25T
85%
↑$1.5T
33%
↑$2.0T
8%
13 outcomes$1.3M vol
Tech & AIflat
Will Apple release a foldable iPhone by...?
December 31
100%
October 31
99%
2 outcomes$1.1M vol
Tech & AI+5 pts
Gemini 4.0 released by...?
November 30
98%
October 31
87%
October 15
68%
5 outcomes$1.1M vol
Tech & AI-4 pts
SCOTUS accepts sports event contract case by...?
December 31
34%
October 31
4%
2 outcomes$994K vol
Tech & AI-2 pts
GTA 6 launch postponed again?
4%
Very unlikely$836K vol
Tech & AI
Texas Tech vs. Colorado
50%
Toss-up$767K vol
Tech & AI-8 pts
OpenAI announces another Millennium Prize solution by...?
December 31, 2027
62%
December 31, 2026
20%
2 outcomes$639K vol
Tech & AI
Oklahoma enacts data center moratorium by...?
December 31, 2028
22%
December 31, 2027
16%
June 30, 2027
11%
4 outcomes$606K vol
Tech & AIflat
FDA approves Retatrutide this year?
4%
Very unlikely$594K vol
Tech & AI-2 pts
Anthropic IPO Closing Market Cap (Lower Brackets)
600B+
94%
No IPO by December 31, 2027
4%
400–600B
1%
7 outcomes$519K vol
Tech & AI+12 pts
What kind of product will OpenAI announce in 2026?
Earbuds/Headphones
24%
Clip-on device for clothing
13%
Glasses
12%
10 outcomes$444K vol
Tech & AI
Ohio enacts data center moratorium by...?
December 31, 2028
26%
December 31, 2027
20%
June 30, 2027
14%
4 outcomes$426K vol
Tech & AI
Missouri enacts data center moratorium by...?
December 31, 2028
26%
December 31, 2027
14%
June 30, 2027
12%
4 outcomes$426K vol
Tech & AI+1 pt
Will Anthropic or OpenAI IPO first?
96%
Near certain$417K vol
Tech & AI
Texas enacts data center moratorium by...?
December 31, 2028
26%
December 31, 2027
17%
June 30, 2027
14%
4 outcomes$410K vol
Tech & AI-12 pts
AI lab announces another Millennium Prize solution by...?
December 31, 2027
62%
December 31, 2026
23%
2 outcomes$386K vol
Tech & AI
Louisiana enacts data center moratorium by...?
December 31, 2028
19%
December 31, 2027
13%
June 30, 2027
12%
4 outcomes$345K vol
Tech & AI+7 pts
In which month will Anthropic IPO?
November 2026
66%
December 2026
17%
February 2027
6%
16 outcomes$343K vol
Tech & AI+39 pts
Will Apple release a new product line before 2027?
63%
Leaning yes$328K vol
Tech & AI-2 pts
OpenAI $1t+ IPO before 2027?
3%
Very unlikely$316K vol
Tech & AI-8 pts
#1 Searched Person on Google 2026?
Lindsay Clancy
20%
Erling Haaland
14%
Bad Bunny
10%
24 outcomes$308K vol
Tech & AI-1 pt
OpenAI announces it has achieved AGI before 2027?
16%
Unlikely$307K vol
Tech & AI-1 pt
OpenAI announces bankruptcy by...?
December 31, 2029
19%
December 31, 2028
16%
December 31, 2027
8%
3 outcomes$283K vol
Tech & AI+1 pt
Will a Chinese company have a top ___ AI model by December 31?
#3
14%
#1
8%
2 outcomes$265K vol
Tech & AI+1 pt
NuScale announces bankruptcy by...?
December 31, 2029
25%
December 31, 2028
20%
December 31, 2027
11%
3 outcomes$252K vol
Tech & AI-56 pts
Next Google Gemini Pro Model: Arena Debut?
1480+
39%
1495+
35%
1490+
33%
5 outcomes$245K vol
Tech & AI-1 pt
Will any AI model reach ___ Coding Arena Score by December 31?
1560
42%
1580
16%
1600
6%
3 outcomes$235K vol
Tech & AI+16 pts
Which Millennium Prize Problem will AI solve next?
No solution by Dec 31, 2027
38%
Birch and Swinnerton-Dyer
34%
Hodge Conjecture
21%
6 outcomes$233K vol
Tech & AI+20 pts
Will any AI model reach ___ Overall Arena Score by December 31?
↑ 1540
36%
↑ 1550
22%
↑ 1600
4%
5 outcomes$223K vol
Tech & AI+56 pts
When will the next Google Gemini Pro model be released?
No release by November 1
80%
October 19–October 25
9%
October 12–October 18
4%
5 outcomes$220K vol
Tech & AI-1 pt
#1 Searched Movie on Google 2026?
The Odyssey
42%
Obsession
36%
Spider-Man: Brand New Day
16%
20 outcomes$216K vol
Tech & AI-8 pts
Which companies will have a #1 AI model by December 31?
OpenAI
10%
Meta
10%
xAI
8%
13 outcomes$206K vol
Tech & AI+7 pts
How many more Millennium Prize Problems will AI solve in 2026?
0
76%
1
17%
2
4%
6 outcomes$201K vol
Tech & AI-6 pts
U.S. enacts AI safety bill before 2027?
5%
Very unlikely$198K vol
Tech & AI+2 pts
#1 Searched Person on Google in the US 2026?
Lindsay Clancy
37%
Taylor Swift
13%
Nicolás Maduro
13%
24 outcomes$196K vol
Tech & AI+1 pt
Best Chinese AI Company end of October?
Alibaba
40%
Xiaomi
35%
Moonshot
9%
11 outcomes$178K vol
Tech & AI+9 pts
How many cities will Waymo operate in by December 31?
12-15
54%
<12
40%
16-19
5%
7 outcomes$176K vol
Tech & AI+16 pts
GPT Astra 6.1+ released by...?
December 31
93%
October 31
22%
October 23
13%
5 outcomes$166K vol
Tech & AI
Which airlines will announce bankruptcy by December 31?
Frontier Airlines
10%
JetBlue
7%
Allegiant
3%
5 outcomes$156K vol
Tech & AI
FDA approves skin cancer vaccine by...?
December 31, 2027
67%
September 30, 2027
42%
June 30, 2027
28%
3 outcomes$155K vol
Tech & AI — frequently asked
What is the most likely tech & ai outcome right now?
The most actively traded tech & ai question is “Which companies will be acquired before 2027?”, currently at 12% on the market.
How often do tech & ai odds update?
WillThisHappen refreshes probabilities from the underlying prediction market roughly every 15 minutes, and shows the 7-day change so you can see which way sentiment is moving.
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