🤖
Topic
Tech & AI
Model releases, product launches, IPOs and the pace of the AI build-out.
38 live questions · odds as of Jul 5, 2026
Tech & AIflat
Which companies will be acquired before 2027?
MGM Resorts
78%
Viking Therapeutics
50%
Brown-Forman
37%
14 outcomes$18.0M vol
Tech & AI-1 pt
IPOs before 2027?
Anthropic
75%
Discord
39%
WHOOP
34%
24 outcomes$6.8M vol
Tech & AI+1 pt
Which company has best AI model end of July?
Anthropic
87%
Google
12%
OpenAI
2%
15 outcomes$4.7M vol
Tech & AI+1 pt
Largest IPO by market cap in 2026?
SpaceX
88%
Anthropic
13%
OpenAI
1%
12 outcomes$4.6M vol
Tech & AI-5 pts
AI bubble burst by...?
15%
Unlikely$2.9M vol
Tech & AI+9 pts
GPT-5.6 released by...?
July 31
98%
July 24
94%
July 17
90%
10 outcomes$2.8M vol
Tech & AI-1 pt
OpenAI IPO by...?
December 31, 2026
22%
September 30, 2026
5%
August 31, 2026
2%
4 outcomes$2.5M vol
Tech & AI
Will Anthropic’s valuation hit __ by December 31?
↑$1.25T
90%
↑$1.5T
78%
↑$1.75T
48%
11 outcomes$2.0M vol
Tech & AI
Human moon landing in 2026?
3%
Very unlikely$2.0M vol
Tech & AIflat
Richest person on December 31, 2026?
Elon Musk
96%
Warren Buffett
1%
Bernard Arnault
1%
10 outcomes$1.8M vol
Tech & AIflat
OpenAI IPO closing market cap above ___ ?
$800B
83%
$1T
75%
$1.2T
64%
5 outcomes$1.5M vol
Tech & AI
SCOTUS accepts sports event contract case by...?
December 31
35%
July 31
2%
2 outcomes$955K vol
Tech & AI-13 pts
Tesla and SpaceX merger officially announced by...?
December 31
26%
September 30
10%
2 outcomes$809K vol
Tech & AI+1 pt
Will OpenAI's valuation hit __ by December 31?
↑$900B
92%
↑$1.0T
68%
↑$1.25T
49%
15 outcomes$790K vol
Tech & AI+4 pts
FDA approves Retatrutide this year?
14%
Unlikely$575K vol
Tech & AI+2 pts
GTA 6 launch postponed again?
10%
Very unlikely$555K vol
Tech & AI
Anthropic IPO by __?
December 31, 2026
76%
October 31, 2026
37%
September 30, 2026
10%
5 outcomes$549K vol
Tech & AI+27 pts
GPT-5.6 released on...?
July 9
44%
July 14
29%
July 7
7%
24 outcomes$420K vol
Tech & AI
GPT-6 released by…?
December 31, 2026
66%
September 30, 2026
28%
July 31, 2026
2%
3 outcomes$408K vol
Tech & AI-46 pts
Trump orders federal review of AI model releases by...?
13%
Unlikely$404K vol
Tech & AI+1 pt
Anthropic IPO Closing Market Cap (Lower Brackets)
600B+
92%
No IPO by December 31, 2027
5%
400–600B
1%
7 outcomes$395K vol
Tech & AIflat
SpaceX IPO: Who will be on-stage at the Bell Ceremony?
Antonio Gracias
3%
Jonathan Hofeller
2%
2 outcomes$369K vol
Tech & AI+1 pt
What kind of product will OpenAI announce in 2026?
Earbuds/Headphones
28%
Clip-on device for clothing
24%
Glasses
21%
10 outcomes$341K vol
Tech & AI
New Gemini reasoning flagship released by...?
60%
Leaning yes$323K vol
Tech & AI-6 pts
Will Apple release a new product line before 2027?
31%
Unlikely$296K vol
Tech & AI-7 pts
OpenAI $1t+ IPO before 2027?
19%
Unlikely$292K vol
Tech & AI-1 pt
Will Anthropic or OpenAI IPO first?
84%
Likely$219K vol
Tech & AI-4 pts
Will Apple release a foldable iPhone before 2027?
81%
Likely$210K vol
Tech & AI-4 pts
Which company has best AI model end of 2026?
Anthropic
65%
Google
14%
OpenAI
13%
15 outcomes$195K vol
Tech & AIflat
Will the Steam Machine cost $700 or more at release?
98%
Near certain$174K vol
Tech & AI-6 pts
Next Google Gemini Pro Model released by...?
July 31
80%
July 24
76%
July 17
68%
4 outcomes$163K vol
Tech & AI+26 pts
Next OpenAI Model: Arena Debut?
1450+
82%
1470+
71%
2 outcomes$152K vol
Tech & AIflat
Will Apple release iPhone 18 in 2026?
96%
Near certain$151K vol
Tech & AI+1 pt
Perplexity IPO Closing Market Cap
No IPO before 2028
57%
75B–100B
9%
20B–30B
7%
8 outcomes$144K vol
Tech & AI-3 pts
Which DCMs self-certify sports event contracts by June 30?
Small Exchange
1%
CBOE
1%
ForecastEx
1%
3 outcomes$128K vol
Tech & AI-1 pt
Which airlines will announce bankruptcy by December 31?
Frontier Airlines
7%
JetBlue
5%
Allegiant
4%
5 outcomes$123K vol
Tech & AIflat
SpaceX Starship fully reusable before 2027?
46%
Toss-up$119K vol
Tech & AI+6 pts
OpenAI receives federal backstop for infrastructure before July?
7%
Very unlikely$112K vol
Tech & AI — frequently asked
What is the most likely tech & ai outcome right now?
The most actively traded tech & ai question is “Which companies will be acquired before 2027?”, currently at 78% on the market.
How often do tech & ai odds update?
WillThisHappen refreshes probabilities from the underlying prediction market roughly every 15 minutes, and shows the 7-day change so you can see which way sentiment is moving.
Other topics
Start following the future.
Browse every probability free. Create an account to build a watchlist and get a weekly digest. Upgrade any time for alerts and API access.