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Which company has best AI model end of 2026?

15 outcomes · ranked

$228K traded
Anthropic
64%
Google
14%
OpenAI
11%
xAI
4%
Meta
3%
Amazon
1%
Z.ai
1%
DeepSeek
1%
Alibaba
1%
Mistral
0%
Microsoft
0%
Moonshot
0%

Probability over time

last 30 days
57%Anthropic · +6 pts over period64%

What this means

Across 15 outcomes, the market's favourite is Anthropic at 64%. Because these are separate markets, probabilities need not sum to exactly 100%.

How this resolves

This market will resolve according to the company which owns the model which has the highest arena rank based off the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard (https://lmarena.ai/) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab is checked on December 31, 2026, 12:00 PM ET. Results from the "Rank" section on the Leaderboard tab of https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text with the style control off will be used to resolve this market. Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “xA…

Resolves: Dec 31, 2026

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