Will Apple release a new product line before 2027?
61%chance of yes
Probability over time
last 30 daysWhat this means
Traders currently price this at 61% — the market's collective estimate that it happens. The market leans toward yes, though it's far from settled. Over the last 7 days the odds moved +36 pts.
How this resolves
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Apple publicly announces and launches a new product line by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise this market will resolve to "No". A "new product line" is defined as a category of products Apple has not previously sold, rather than an iteration or update of an existing product. Examples of a new product line would include an Apple-branded home robot or gaming console, while a new iPhone, Mac, iPad, Apple Watch, or AirPods models would not qualify. The resolution source will be official information from Apple.
Resolves: Jan 1, 2027
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