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Tech & AIGeminiAI ReleasesGemini 3

Gemini 4.0 released by...?

8 outcomes · ranked

$1.5M traded
November 30
98%
October 31
91%
October 23
82%
October 16
66%
October 15
64%
October 14
44%
October 13
23%
October 12
4%

Probability over time

last 30 days
89%November 30 · +9 pts over period98%

What this means

Across 8 outcomes, the market's favourite is November 30 at 98%. Because these are separate markets, probabilities need not sum to exactly 100%.

How this resolves

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Google's Gemini 4.0 Flash model is made available to the general public by the listed date. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". For this market to resolve to "Yes," Gemini 4.0 must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice. The release must be clearly defined and publicly announced by Google as being accessible to the general public. Gemini 4.0 refers to a product explicitly named Gemini 4.0 or one that is recognized as a successor to Gemini 3 similar to the progression from Gemini 2.0 to Gemini 3. Products labeled as Gemini 3.0 Flash, Gemini 2.5, or similar will not count for this market's resolution. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Google, with additional verification from a con…

Resolves: Dec 1, 2026

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