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Tech & AIGeminiAI ReleasesGemini 3

Gemini 4.0 released by...?

2 outcomes · ranked

$112K traded
September 30
60%
August 31
46%

Probability over time

last 30 days
62%September 30 · -5 pts over period56%

What this means

Across 2 outcomes, the market's favourite is September 30 at 60%. Because these are separate markets, probabilities need not sum to exactly 100%.

How this resolves

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Google's Gemini 4.0 Flash model is made available to the general public by the listed date. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". For this market to resolve to "Yes," Gemini 4.0 must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice. The release must be clearly defined and publicly announced by Google as being accessible to the general public. Gemini 4.0 refers to a product explicitly named Gemini 4.0 or one that is recognized as a successor to Gemini 3 similar to the progression from Gemini 2.0 to Gemini 3. Products labeled as Gemini 3.0 Flash, Gemini 2.5, or similar will not count for this market's resolution. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Google, with additional verification from a con…

Closed Jul 31, 2026 · awaiting resolution

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