🏛️
Topic
Politics & Elections
Election outcomes, legislation, appointments and the odds shaping government.
90 live questions · odds as of Oct 5, 2026
Politics-1 pt
Democratic Presidential Nominee 2028
Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez
18%
Gavin Newsom
16%
Jon Ossoff
15%
24 outcomes$1.3B vol
Politics-1 pt
Presidential Election Winner 2028
JD Vance
20%
Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez
14%
Jon Ossoff
11%
24 outcomes$713.0M vol
Politics-1 pt
Republican Presidential Nominee 2028
J.D. Vance
50%
Marco Rubio
15%
Tucker Carlson
3%
24 outcomes$709.7M vol
Politics+2 pts
Next Prime Minister of Ethiopia?
Abiy Ahmed
99%
Demeke Mekonnen
1%
Gedion Timothewos
1%
8 outcomes$286.1M vol
Politics+26 pts
Brazil Presidential Election
Flávio Bolsonaro
84%
Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva
16%
2 outcomes$172.4M vol
Politics+3 pts
Next French Presidential Election
Marine Le Pen
42%
Édouard Philippe
19%
David Lisnard
13%
24 outcomes$144.5M vol
Politicsflat
California Governor Election Winner
Xavier Becerra
96%
Steve Hilton
4%
Tom Steyer
0%
23 outcomes$41.7M vol
Politics-1 pt
Will Trump acquire Greenland before 2027?
2%
Very unlikely$35.6M vol
Politics+3 pts
Los Angeles Mayoral Election
Nithya Raman
61%
Karen Bass
39%
2 outcomes$14.9M vol
Politics
Which party will win the House in 2026?
Democratic Party
93%
Republican Party
8%
2 outcomes$13.8M vol
Politics-16 pts
María Corina Machado enters Venezuela by...?
December 31
36%
October 31
15%
2 outcomes$6.5M vol
Politics+3 pts
Which party will win the Senate in 2026?
Democratic Party
66%
Republican Party
34%
2 outcomes$5.8M vol
Politics+6 pts
Next Prime Minister of Romania?
Alexandru Nazare
33%
Sorin Grindeanu
22%
Luca Niculescu
14%
24 outcomes$4.6M vol
Politics-1 pt
Epstein client list released by...?
5%
Very unlikely$4.4M vol
Politics-7 pts
Will Samuel Alito announce his retirement by...?
June 30, 2027
34%
December 31
7%
2 outcomes$4.2M vol
Politics+2 pts
Billionaire one-time wealth tax passes in California election 2026?
31%
Unlikely$3.9M vol
Politicsflat
Jeffrey Epstein foul play confirmed by...?
3%
Very unlikely$3.1M vol
Politics+2 pts
Republican Senate seats after the 2026 midterm elections?
≤47
39%
48
18%
49
14%
11 outcomes$3.1M vol
Politics
Friedrich Merz out as Chancellor of Germany by...?
December 31, 2027
32%
March 31, 2027
26%
June 30, 2027
22%
6 outcomes$2.8M vol
Politics-1 pt
Jeffrey Epstein confirmed to be alive before 2027?
1%
Very unlikely$2.6M vol
Politicsflat
Will Tim Walz resign by...?
2%
Very unlikely$2.6M vol
Politics
Which party wins 2028 US Presidential Election?
Democratic
65%
Republican
35%
2 outcomes$2.5M vol
Politics+3 pts
Macron out by...?
5%
Very unlikely$2.2M vol
Politics+3 pts
Texas Senate Election Winner
James Talarico (D)
64%
Ken Paxton (R)
37%
2 outcomes$2.1M vol
Politics-2 pts
Maine Senate Election Winner
Troy Jackson (D)
59%
Susan Collins (R)
42%
2 outcomes$2.1M vol
Politics
What will Gold (GC) hit__ by end of December?
↑ $4,500
50%
↑ $5,000
22%
↓ $3,500
13%
11 outcomes$1.9M vol
Politics-1 pt
Mitch McConnell steps down from Senate before his term ends?
7%
Very unlikely$1.8M vol
Politicsflat
Kash Patel out by...?
December 31
18%
October 31
4%
2 outcomes$1.8M vol
Politics-1 pt
Who will leave Trump Administration before 2027?
Markwayne Mullin
35%
Kristi Noem
32%
Dan Scavino
30%
16 outcomes$1.4M vol
Politics+3 pts
Michigan Senate Election Winner
Abdul El-Sayed (D)
74%
Mike Rogers (R)
28%
2 outcomes$1.3M vol
Politics+4 pts
Quebec General Election Winner
PQ
98%
PLQ
2%
PCQ
0%
6 outcomes$1.1M vol
Politics-3 pts
Insurrection Act invoked by...?
11%
Unlikely$1.1M vol
Politics+1 pt
Alaska Senate Election Winner
Mary Peltola
73%
Sen. Dan Sullivan
28%
Ann Diener
0%
7 outcomes$1.1M vol
Politicsflat
French election called by...?
6%
Very unlikely$1.1M vol
Politics+4 pts
Ohio Senate Election Winner
Sherrod Brown (D)
62%
Jon Husted (R)
39%
2 outcomes$1.0M vol
Politics-7 pts
Will Trump be impeached by...?
December 31, 2027
58%
June 30, 2027
40%
December 31, 2026
2%
3 outcomes$1.0M vol
Politics+33 pts
Romanian PM Bolojan out by...?
December 31
83%
October 31
52%
2 outcomes$871K vol
Politics+3 pts
UK election called by...?
June 30, 2027
24%
December 31, 2026
10%
2 outcomes$835K vol
Politics
Argentina Presidential Election Winner
Javier Milei
56%
Axel Kicillof
32%
Sergio Massa
6%
19 outcomes$789K vol
Politics-3 pts
Kansas Senate Election Winner
Roger Marshall (R)
68%
Adam Hamilton (D)
33%
2 outcomes$762K vol
Politicsflat
Will Trump pardon Ghislaine Maxwell by end of 2026?
3%
Very unlikely$761K vol
Politics
What will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit in October 2026?
↓ $85
67%
↑ $95
64%
↓ $80
38%
19 outcomes$739K vol
Politics
Iowa Senate Election Winner
Ashley Hinson (R)
57%
Josh Turek (D)
43%
2 outcomes$728K vol
Politics-4 pts
Wisconsin Governor Election Winner
David Crowley (D)
82%
Tom Tiffany (R)
19%
2 outcomes$702K vol
Politics-5 pts
How many Republican Governors after the 2026 midterm elections?
22–23
34%
24–25
22%
<22
21%
7 outcomes$700K vol
Politicsflat
Next Prime Minister of Serbia?
Aleksandar Vučić
68%
Ilija Srdanović
16%
Stefan Krkobabić
4%
10 outcomes$688K vol
Politics
Lebanon Parliamentary Election Winner
Amal Movement (Amal)
1%
Lebanese Forces (LF)
0%
Hezbollah (Hezb)
0%
23 outcomes$678K vol
Politics+79 pts
Rio de Janeiro Governor Election Winner
Douglas Ruas
93%
Eduardo Paes
2%
Dr. Luizinho
0%
16 outcomes$655K vol
Politics
South Carolina Senate Election Winner
Darline Graham Nordone (R)
86%
Annie Andrews (D)
14%
2 outcomes$652K vol
Politics-4 pts
SAVE Act becomes law by...?
5%
Very unlikely$561K vol
Politics-1 pt
Lee Jae-myung arrested before 2027?
5%
Very unlikely$552K vol
Politics-10 pts
Taipei Mayor Election Winner
Chiang Wan-an
73%
Puma Shen
27%
Kuo Hsi
0%
3 outcomes$551K vol
Politicsflat
Will Trump resign by December 31, 2026?
2%
Very unlikely$542K vol
Politics-1 pt
Tim Walz charged by...?
3%
Very unlikely$523K vol
Politicsflat
Will the 2026 Midterm Elections happen as scheduled?
98%
Near certain$520K vol
Politics+10 pts
Minas Gerais Governor Election Winner
Cleitinho Azevedo
99%
Flávio Roscoe
0%
Patrus Ananias
0%
17 outcomes$507K vol
Politics
Who will Trump pardon before 2027?
Donald Brodie
30%
Stefan Brodie
18%
Ryan Salame
14%
24 outcomes$501K vol
Politics-2 pts
2027 French Presidential Election: who will be on the ballot?
Jean-Luc Mélenchon
94%
Marine Le Pen
92%
Édouard Philippe
90%
24 outcomes$499K vol
Politics+4 pts
Nebraska Senate Election Winner
Pete Ricketts (R)
74%
Independent
27%
Democrat
0%
3 outcomes$496K vol
Politics+8 pts
Lima Mayoral Election Winner
Rafael López Aliaga
95%
Francis James Allison Oyague
2%
Carlos Ricardo Bruce Montes de Oca
0%
23 outcomes$486K vol
Politicsflat
Who will be arrested before 2027?
John Brennan
24%
Mahmoud Khalil
19%
Lee Jun-seok
11%
24 outcomes$480K vol
Politics+2 pts
Who will Trump pick as the next Press Secretary?
Anna Kelly
23%
Scott Jennings
12%
Maria Bartiromo
5%
24 outcomes$479K vol
Politics-10 pts
Texas Governor Election Winner
Greg Abbott (R)
73%
Gina Hinojosa (D)
28%
2 outcomes$444K vol
Politics-8 pts
Next Prime Minister of Spain?
Alberto Núñez Feijóo
71%
Pedro Sánchez
28%
Santiago Abascal
2%
16 outcomes$433K vol
Politicsflat
Which states will use new congressional maps in the midterms?
Florida
99%
California
97%
Ohio
96%
22 outcomes$419K vol
Politics+36 pts
Ceará Governor Election Winner
Elmano de Freitas
99%
Ciro Gomes
0%
Eduardo Girão
0%
6 outcomes$410K vol
Politics-1 pt
ACA credits extended & House Winner 2026?
Not Extended & Democratic Party
92%
Not Extended & Republican Party
8%
2 outcomes$408K vol
Politics-6 pts
What will S&P 500 (SPX) hit by end of December?
↑ $8,000
55%
↓ $7,400
47%
↓ $7,200
34%
14 outcomes$395K vol
Politics+5 pts
Next Premier of Quebec
Paul St-Pierre Plamondon
98%
Charles Milliard
2%
Christine Fréchette
0%
7 outcomes$394K vol
Politics+1 pt
Jimmy Lai released by...?
5%
Very unlikely$389K vol
Politics+8 pts
Next Ministerpräsident of Sachsen-Anhalt?
Ulrich Siegmund
70%
Sven Schulze
6%
Sepp Müller
3%
12 outcomes$388K vol
Politics+52 pts
Bahia Governor Election Winner
Jerônimo Rodrigues
100%
ACM Neto
0%
João Roma
0%
7 outcomes$387K vol
Politics+6 pts
Lecornu out as French PM by...?
December 31, 2026
32%
October 31, 2026
14%
2 outcomes$359K vol
Politics-10 pts
Sinaloa Gov. Ruben Rocha extradited to US by...?
19%
Unlikely$355K vol
Politics+1 pt
São Paulo Governor Election Winner
Tarcísio de Freitas
100%
Fernando Haddad
0%
Erika Hilton
0%
5 outcomes$352K vol
Politics-1 pt
Another US government shutdown & House Winner 2026?
Shutdown & Democratic Party
92%
Shutdown & Republican Party
8%
2 outcomes$349K vol
Politicsflat
Will anyone be jailed over Epstein disclosures?
4%
Very unlikely$343K vol
Politics-1 pt
Will Alberta vote for independence in 2026?
3%
Very unlikely$337K vol
Politics+10 pts
Nevada Governor Election Winner
Aaron Ford (D)
59%
Joe Lombardo (R)
42%
2 outcomes$332K vol
Politics+49 pts
Which states will Donald Trump visit in 2026?
Nebraska
96%
Kansas
92%
Montana
92%
23 outcomes$328K vol
Politics+3 pts
Republican House seats after the 2026 midterm elections?
Below 190
30%
190-194
14%
195-199
14%
10 outcomes$317K vol
Politics-1 pt
Andrew Tate released from custody by...?
8%
Very unlikely$308K vol
Politics+1 pt
New Hampshire Senate Election Winner
Chris Pappas (D)
87%
John E. Sununu (R)
14%
2 outcomes$308K vol
Politics+16 pts
Paraná Governor Election Winner
Sergio Moro
98%
Sandro Alex
1%
Requião Filho
0%
9 outcomes$304K vol
Politics
Serbia Parliamentary Election Winner
Aleksandar Vučić – United Serbia
66%
Student List – Students Win
36%
Ivica Dačić – Factor of Stability!
0%
10 outcomes$297K vol
Politics+19 pts
Federal District Senate Election: 2nd Place
Bia Kicis
99%
Michelle Bolsonaro
0%
Erika Kokay
0%
13 outcomes$296K vol
Politics+5 pts
Will Mamdani freeze NYC rents before 2027?
91%
Near certain$290K vol
Politics-1 pt
Lee Jae-myung out as president of South Korea in 2026?
6%
Very unlikely$289K vol
Politics+5 pts
Ohio Governor Election Winner
Amy Acton (D)
68%
Vivek Ramaswamy (R)
33%
2 outcomes$282K vol
Politics+1 pt
Next French Presidential Election: who will advance to the 2nd round?
Marine Le Pen
91%
Édouard Philippe
45%
Jean-Luc Mélenchon
44%
24 outcomes$282K vol
Politics — frequently asked
What is the most likely politics outcome right now?
The most actively traded politics question is “Democratic Presidential Nominee 2028”, currently at 18% on the market.
How often do politics odds update?
WillThisHappen refreshes probabilities from the underlying prediction market roughly every 15 minutes, and shows the 7-day change so you can see which way sentiment is moving.
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