🏛️
Topic
Politics & Elections
Election outcomes, legislation, appointments and the odds shaping government.
90 live questions · odds as of Aug 21, 2026
Politics-4 pts
Democratic Presidential Nominee 2028
Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez
18%
Gavin Newsom
15%
Jon Ossoff
14%
24 outcomes$1.3B vol
Politics-3 pts
Presidential Election Winner 2028
JD Vance
20%
Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez
13%
Marco Rubio
12%
24 outcomes$690.6M vol
Politics+1 pt
Republican Presidential Nominee 2028
J.D. Vance
47%
Marco Rubio
21%
Ron DeSantis
3%
24 outcomes$689.4M vol
Politics+1 pt
Next Prime Minister of Ethiopia?
Abiy Ahmed
97%
Gedion Timothewos
1%
Adanech Abiebie
1%
8 outcomes$283.8M vol
Politics
Brazil Presidential Election
Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva
64%
Flávio Bolsonaro
33%
Renan Santos
4%
18 outcomes$130.0M vol
Politics+2 pts
Next French Presidential Election
Marine Le Pen
33%
Édouard Philippe
26%
Jean-Luc Mélenchon
14%
24 outcomes$120.8M vol
Politics+2 pts
California Governor Election Winner
Xavier Becerra
95%
Steve Hilton
5%
Tom Steyer
0%
23 outcomes$40.8M vol
Politicsflat
Will Trump acquire Greenland before 2027?
3%
Very unlikely$35.3M vol
Politics-2 pts
Los Angeles Mayoral Election
Karen Bass
65%
Nithya Raman
35%
2 outcomes$13.4M vol
Politics
Which party will win the House in 2026?
Democratic Party
88%
Republican Party
12%
2 outcomes$9.6M vol
Politics+30 pts
What will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit in August 2026?
↑ $90
60%
↑ $95
26%
↑ $100
9%
19 outcomes$8.4M vol
Politicsflat
María Corina Machado enters Venezuela by...?
December 31
24%
September 30
10%
August 31
3%
3 outcomes$6.4M vol
Politics+5 pts
Brazil Presidential Election First Round: 2nd Place
Flávio Bolsonaro
88%
Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva
9%
Renan Santos
3%
17 outcomes$4.9M vol
Politics+14 pts
Epstein client list released by...?
19%
Unlikely$4.4M vol
Politics-2 pts
Which party will win the Senate in 2026?
Democratic Party
51%
Republican Party
50%
2 outcomes$4.0M vol
Politics-9 pts
Billionaire one-time wealth tax passes in California election 2026?
27%
Unlikely$3.7M vol
Politics-2 pts
Will Samuel Alito announce his retirement by...?
June 30, 2027
35%
December 31
6%
September 30
2%
3 outcomes$3.5M vol
Politics-2 pts
Next Prime Minister of Romania?
Alexandru Nazare
47%
Sorin Grindeanu
22%
Radu Burnete
7%
24 outcomes$3.3M vol
Politics-5 pts
Berlin State Election Winner
Linke
40%
CDU
33%
AfD
15%
8 outcomes$3.3M vol
Politics
Jeffrey Epstein foul play confirmed by...?
3%
Very unlikely$3.1M vol
Politics+1 pt
Republican Senate seats after the 2026 midterm elections?
≤47
27%
49
14%
48
13%
11 outcomes$2.9M vol
Politicsflat
Will Tim Walz resign by...?
4%
Very unlikely$2.6M vol
Politicsflat
Jeffrey Epstein confirmed to be alive before 2027?
2%
Very unlikely$2.6M vol
Politics-13 pts
South Carolina Republican Senate Special Primary Winner
Darline Graham Nordone
70%
Ralph Norman
30%
Nancy Mace
0%
15 outcomes$2.6M vol
Politics+1 pt
Macron out by...?
6%
Very unlikely$2.1M vol
Politics+1 pt
Which party wins 2028 US Presidential Election?
Democratic
60%
Republican
42%
2 outcomes$2.1M vol
Politicsflat
Trump out as President by August 31?
0%
Very unlikely$1.9M vol
Politics-4 pts
Kash Patel out by...?
December 31
24%
September 30
7%
August 31
1%
3 outcomes$1.7M vol
Politics+17 pts
What will Gold (GC) hit__ by end of December?
↑ $5,000
59%
↑ $4,500
50%
↑ $6,000
13%
11 outcomes$1.4M vol
Politics+27 pts
Who will leave Trump Administration before 2027?
Russell Vought
38%
Robert F. Kennedy Jr.
31%
Markwayne Mullin
30%
16 outcomes$1.4M vol
Politics-6 pts
Mitch McConnell steps down from Senate before his term ends?
18%
Unlikely$1.3M vol
Politics
Maine Senate Election Winner
Troy Jackson (D)
70%
Susan Collins (R)
31%
2 outcomes$1.2M vol
Politics-1 pt
Insurrection Act invoked by...?
December 31
17%
September 30
2%
2 outcomes$1.1M vol
Politics-5 pts
French election called by...?
5%
Very unlikely$1.1M vol
Politics
Will Trump be impeached by end of 2026?
2%
Very unlikely$1.0M vol
Politics+1 pt
Sachsen-Anhalt Parliamentary Election Winner
AfD
99%
CDU
1%
SPD
0%
7 outcomes$886K vol
Politics
Texas Senate Election Winner
James Talarico (D)
52%
Ken Paxton (R)
50%
2 outcomes$847K vol
Politics+2 pts
Romanian PM Bolojan out by...?
88%
Likely$843K vol
Politics-4 pts
UK election called by...?
June 30, 2027
30%
December 31, 2026
10%
2 outcomes$822K vol
Politics-1 pt
Quebec General Election Winner
PQ
73%
PLQ
13%
CAQ
13%
6 outcomes$785K vol
Politicsflat
Will Trump pardon Ghislaine Maxwell by end of 2026?
6%
Very unlikely$745K vol
Politics
How many Republican Governors after the 2026 midterm elections?
22–23
28%
<22
26%
24–25
22%
7 outcomes$689K vol
Politicsflat
Lebanon Parliamentary Election Winner
Amal Movement (Amal)
2%
Lebanese Forces (LF)
0%
Hezbollah (Hezb)
0%
23 outcomes$668K vol
Politics+52 pts
What will Gold (XAUUSD) hit in August 2026?
↑ $4,700
59%
↓ $4,000
1%
↓ $3,900
1%
8 outcomes$640K vol
Politics-3 pts
Brazil Presidential Election First Round: 3rd Place
Renan Santos
56%
Ronaldo Caiado
35%
Romeu Zema
5%
19 outcomes$563K vol
Politics+7 pts
Michigan Senate Election Winner
Abdul El-Sayed (D)
65%
Mike Rogers (R)
37%
2 outcomes$554K vol
Politics
SAVE Act becomes law by...?
14%
Unlikely$541K vol
Politicsflat
Lee Jae-myung arrested before 2027?
8%
Very unlikely$539K vol
Politics
Argentina Presidential Election Winner
Javier Milei
51%
Axel Kicillof
39%
Sergio Massa
9%
11 outcomes$535K vol
Politics
Will Trump resign by December 31, 2026?
4%
Very unlikely$534K vol
Politicsflat
Tim Walz charged by...?
4%
Very unlikely$511K vol
Politics
Friedrich Merz out as Chancellor of Germany before 2027?
18%
Unlikely$502K vol
Politics+2 pts
Which candidates will advance to Brazil's presidential runoff?
Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva
97%
Flavio Bolsonaro
92%
Renan Santos
5%
9 outcomes$492K vol
Politics-2 pts
Oklahoma Governor Republican Primary Winner
Mike Mazzei
73%
Gentner Drummond
28%
Chip Keating
0%
8 outcomes$484K vol
Politics+3 pts
Mecklenburg-Vorpommern Parliamentary Election Winner
AfD
88%
SPD
14%
CDU
0%
8 outcomes$465K vol
Politics+7 pts
Alaska Senate Election Winner
Mary Peltola
57%
Dan Sullivan
44%
Ann Diener
0%
5 outcomes$432K vol
Politics-16 pts
Who will Trump pardon before 2027?
Ryan Salame
23%
Donald Brodie
22%
Matt Gaetz
21%
24 outcomes$427K vol
Politics
Wyoming Governor Republican Primary Winner
Joseph Kibler
0%
Reid Rasner
0%
Bo Biteman
0%
12 outcomes$420K vol
Politics+3 pts
Wisconsin Governor Election Winner
David Crowley (D)
81%
Tom Tiffany (R)
19%
2 outcomes$411K vol
Politics+1 pt
ACA credits extended & House Winner 2026?
Not Extended & Democratic Party
89%
Not Extended & Republican Party
11%
2 outcomes$405K vol
Politicsflat
Which states will use new congressional maps in the midterms?
Texas
98%
Florida
98%
North Carolina
96%
22 outcomes$396K vol
Politics
Who will be arrested before 2027?
Mahmoud Khalil
29%
John Brennan
26%
José Luis Rodríguez Zapatero
18%
24 outcomes$382K vol
Politicsflat
Jimmy Lai released by...?
2%
Very unlikely$379K vol
Politicsflat
Will the 2026 Midterm Elections happen as scheduled?
96%
Near certain$361K vol
Politics+6 pts
Minas Gerais Governor Election Winner
Cleitinho Azevedo
72%
Alexandre Kalil
8%
Gabriel Azevedo
8%
17 outcomes$358K vol
Politics+10 pts
Sinaloa Gov. Ruben Rocha extradited to US by...?
22%
Unlikely$354K vol
Politics-2 pts
Lecornu out as French PM by...?
December 31, 2026
26%
September 30, 2026
3%
August 31, 2026
0%
3 outcomes$343K vol
Politics+62 pts
James Fishback vote share in 2026 Florida Republican Governor Primary?
Fishback 10–15%
100%
Fishback 25–30%
0%
Fishback <10%
0%
6 outcomes$338K vol
Politics+1 pt
Another US government shutdown & House Winner 2026?
Shutdown & Democratic Party
88%
Shutdown & Republican Party
10%
2 outcomes$333K vol
Politics-1 pt
Will anyone be jailed over Epstein disclosures?
7%
Very unlikely$333K vol
Politics+3 pts
Rio de Janeiro Governor Election Winner
Eduardo Paes
97%
Douglas Ruas
1%
Anthony Garotinho
1%
16 outcomes$328K vol
Politics+4 pts
Brazil Presidential Election First Round: Margin of Victory
Lula da Silva 5-10%
42%
Lula da Silva 10-15%
25%
Lula da Silva <5%
24%
11 outcomes$326K vol
Politics+3 pts
Will AfD win an absolute majority of seats in Sachsen-Anhalt?
31%
Unlikely$326K vol
Politics+28 pts
Which states will Donald Trump visit in 2026?
South Carolina
97%
Alabama
57%
Indiana
55%
24 outcomes$321K vol
Politics+23 pts
What will S&P 500 (SPX) hit by end of December?
↓ $7,400
74%
↑ $8,000
70%
↓ $7,200
64%
14 outcomes$316K vol
Politicsflat
2027 French Presidential Election: who will be on the ballot?
Jean-Luc Mélenchon
95%
Marine Le Pen
88%
Nathalie Arthaud
88%
24 outcomes$299K vol
Politics+2 pts
Next Brazil Senate Election: Most Seats Won
PL
79%
MDB
17%
UNIÃO
1%
12 outcomes$294K vol
Politics+92 pts
Florida Democratic Senate Primary Winner
Angie Nixon
100%
Jared Moskowitz
0%
Josh Weil
0%
8 outcomes$293K vol
Politics+3 pts
São Paulo Governor Election Winner
Tarcísio de Freitas
97%
Fernando Haddad
3%
Erika Hilton
0%
5 outcomes$290K vol
Politics+3 pts
Republican House seats after the 2026 midterm elections?
Below 190
26%
200-204
18%
190-194
14%
10 outcomes$289K vol
Politics-4 pts
Will Mamdani freeze NYC rents before 2027?
78%
Likely$287K vol
Politics+6 pts
Who will advance from the Alaska Governor primary?
Bernadette Wilson
100%
Dave Bronson
94%
Lesil McGuire
46%
18 outcomes$273K vol
Politics+1 pt
Lee Jae-myung out as president of South Korea in 2026?
10%
Very unlikely$270K vol
Politics+1 pt
Will Alberta vote for independence in 2026?
9%
Very unlikely$256K vol
Politics+1 pt
Next Premier of Quebec
Paul St-Pierre Plamondon
73%
Charles Milliard
16%
Christine Fréchette
12%
7 outcomes$249K vol
Politics-1 pt
Who will Trump endorse?
1%
Very unlikely$247K vol
Politics
Nigel Farage out as Reform UK leader by...?
March 31, 2027
24%
December 31, 2026
14%
2 outcomes$246K vol
Politics-3 pts
Trump renames ICE to NICE by...?
5%
Very unlikely$241K vol
Politics
JD Vance out as VP by...?
6%
Very unlikely$239K vol
Politics
Andrew Tate released from custody by...?
December 31
17%
August 31
5%
2 outcomes$235K vol
Politics — frequently asked
What is the most likely politics outcome right now?
The most actively traded politics question is “Democratic Presidential Nominee 2028”, currently at 18% on the market.
How often do politics odds update?
WillThisHappen refreshes probabilities from the underlying prediction market roughly every 15 minutes, and shows the 7-day change so you can see which way sentiment is moving.
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