🏛️
Topic
Politics & Elections
Election outcomes, legislation, appointments and the odds shaping government.
90 live questions · odds as of Jul 5, 2026
Politicsflat
Democratic Presidential Nominee 2028
Gavin Newsom
20%
Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez
12%
Jon Ossoff
10%
24 outcomes$1.2B vol
Politics+1 pt
Republican Presidential Nominee 2028
J.D. Vance
39%
Marco Rubio
26%
Tucker Carlson
3%
24 outcomes$668.8M vol
Politics+1 pt
Presidential Election Winner 2028
JD Vance
20%
Marco Rubio
16%
Gavin Newsom
12%
24 outcomes$646.6M vol
Politics+1 pt
Next Prime Minister of Ethiopia?
Abiy Ahmed
98%
Berhanu Nega
1%
Demeke Mekonnen
0%
8 outcomes$144.8M vol
Politics+3 pts
Brazil Presidential Election
Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva
61%
Flávio Bolsonaro
22%
Renan Santos
10%
17 outcomes$110.2M vol
Politics
Next French Presidential Election
Jordan Bardella
26%
Édouard Philippe
24%
Marine Le Pen
9%
24 outcomes$107.8M vol
Politics+1 pt
Peru Presidential Election Winner
Keiko Fujimori
100%
Roberto Sánchez Palomino
0%
2 outcomes$107.1M vol
Politics+2 pts
California Governor Election Winner
Xavier Becerra
92%
Steve Hilton
8%
Chad Bianco
0%
23 outcomes$40.2M vol
Politics-1 pt
Will Trump acquire Greenland before 2027?
5%
Very unlikely$34.5M vol
Politics+1 pt
Next UK Prime Minister in 2026?
Andy Burnham
98%
Nigel Farage
0%
Al Carns
0%
22 outcomes$16.0M vol
Politics-1 pt
Los Angeles Mayoral Election
Karen Bass
60%
Nithya Raman
40%
Rick Caruso
0%
10 outcomes$12.8M vol
Politics+1 pt
Which party will win the House in 2026?
Democratic Party
84%
Republican Party
17%
2 outcomes$8.2M vol
Politics+12 pts
María Corina Machado enters Venezuela by...?
32%
Unlikely$6.2M vol
Politicsflat
Epstein client list released by...?
1%
Very unlikely$4.4M vol
Politics-3 pts
Brazil Presidential Election First Round: 2nd Place
Flávio Bolsonaro
73%
Renan Santos
11%
Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva
4%
17 outcomes$3.9M vol
Politics-3 pts
Billionaire one-time wealth tax passes in California election 2026?
33%
Unlikely$3.5M vol
Politics-2 pts
Jeffrey Epstein foul play confirmed by...?
3%
Very unlikely$3.1M vol
Politics-1 pt
Which party will win the Senate in 2026?
Republican Party
56%
Democratic Party
45%
2 outcomes$3.1M vol
Politics+17 pts
Next Prime Minister of Romania?
Alexandru Nazare
29%
Sorin Grindeanu
26%
Siegfried Mureșan
6%
24 outcomes$3.0M vol
Politics+23 pts
Berlin State Election Winner
Linke
35%
CDU
25%
Grüne
20%
8 outcomes$2.9M vol
Politics-1 pt
Republican Senate seats after the 2026 midterm elections?
≤47
24%
51
19%
49
14%
11 outcomes$2.7M vol
Politicsflat
Will Tim Walz resign by...?
Before 2027
7%
July 31
0%
2 outcomes$2.6M vol
Politicsflat
Jeffrey Epstein confirmed to be alive before 2027?
3%
Very unlikely$2.5M vol
Politics+6 pts
Virginia Republican Senate Primary Winner
Bert Mizusawa
76%
Kim Farington
23%
Chuck Smith
4%
9 outcomes$2.4M vol
Politicsflat
Macron out by...?
1%
Very unlikely$2.1M vol
Politics
Which party wins 2028 US Presidential Election?
Democratic
59%
Republican
41%
2 outcomes$1.9M vol
Politics+1 pt
Florida Governor Republican Primary Winner
Byron Donalds
96%
James Fishback
4%
Wilton Simpson
0%
7 outcomes$1.9M vol
Politicsflat
Kash Patel out by...?
December 31
42%
July 31
5%
2 outcomes$1.5M vol
Politics+2 pts
Who will leave Trump Administration before 2027?
Dan Scavino
63%
Robert F. Kennedy Jr.
42%
Kash Patel
41%
16 outcomes$1.3M vol
Politics-1 pt
Insurrection Act invoked by...?
December 31
15%
July 31
0%
2 outcomes$1.1M vol
Politics-2 pts
French election called by...?
3%
Very unlikely$1.1M vol
Politics
Will Samuel Alito announce his retirement by...?
June 30, 2027
54%
December 31
27%
September 30
13%
4 outcomes$1.0M vol
Politics-2 pts
Will Trump be impeached by end of 2026?
4%
Very unlikely$946K vol
Politicsflat
California Governor Primary Election: First Place
Xavier Becerra
100%
Tom Steyer
0%
Steve Hilton
0%
18 outcomes$939K vol
Politics-1 pt
Romanian PM Bolojan out by...?
December 31
97%
July 31
33%
2 outcomes$808K vol
Politics
What will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit in July 2026?
↓ $65
63%
↑ $80
22%
↓ $60
19%
19 outcomes$808K vol
Politics-12 pts
UK election called by...?
June 30, 2027
22%
December 31, 2026
13%
2 outcomes$801K vol
Politics+2 pts
Sachsen-Anhalt Parliamentary Election Winner
AfD
97%
CDU
2%
BSW
0%
7 outcomes$798K vol
Politics-2 pts
Michigan Democratic Senate Primary Winner
Abdul El-Sayed
78%
Haley Stevens
22%
Mallory McMorrow
0%
9 outcomes$759K vol
Politics-3 pts
Will Trump pardon Ghislaine Maxwell by end of 2026?
6%
Very unlikely$704K vol
Politics
How many Republican Governors after the 2026 midterm elections?
24–25
44%
22–23
28%
26–27
17%
7 outcomes$681K vol
Politics-23 pts
Tamas Sulyok out as President of Hungary by...?
68%
Likely$679K vol
Politics-9 pts
Maine Senate Election Winner
Democrat
54%
Republican
46%
2 outcomes$652K vol
Politics
Quebec General Election Winner
PQ
63%
CAQ
22%
PLQ
12%
6 outcomes$629K vol
Politicsflat
Lebanon Parliamentary Election Winner
Lebanese Forces (LF)
2%
Amal Movement (Amal)
2%
Hezbollah (Hezb)
1%
23 outcomes$620K vol
Politics-1 pt
What will Gold (GC) hit__ by end of December?
↑ $6,000
8%
↑ $7,000
6%
↑ $12,000
4%
6 outcomes$616K vol
Politics-12 pts
Next UK Chancellor of the Exchequer in 2026?
Ed Miliband
50%
Pat McFadden
14%
Yvette Cooper
13%
10 outcomes$600K vol
Politics+4 pts
Colorado Governor Republican Primary Winner
Victor Marx
98%
Barbara Kirkmeyer
2%
Mark Baisley
0%
15 outcomes$589K vol
Politics-2 pts
Texas Senate Election Winner
Ken Paxton (R)
55%
James Talarico (D)
44%
2 outcomes$554K vol
Politics+1 pt
Tim Walz charged by...?
8%
Very unlikely$508K vol
Politics-1 pt
Will Trump resign by December 31, 2026?
6%
Very unlikely$498K vol
Politics+2 pts
Lee Jae-myung arrested before 2027?
11%
Unlikely$486K vol
Politics+3 pts
Ruben Rocha out as Governor of Sinaloa by...?
32%
Unlikely$486K vol
Politics-7 pts
SAVE Act becomes law by...?
16%
Unlikely$452K vol
Politics+6 pts
AZ-01 Republican Primary Winner
Jay Feely
85%
Joseph Chaplik
15%
Matt Gress
0%
13 outcomes$432K vol
Politics+9 pts
Minnesota Governor Republican Primary Winner
Lisa Demuth
38%
Kendall Qualls
32%
Mike Lindell
19%
10 outcomes$427K vol
Politics+2 pts
Oklahoma Governor Republican Primary Winner
Mike Mazzei
81%
Genter Drummond
19%
Chip Keating
0%
8 outcomes$419K vol
Politics+12 pts
Brazil Presidential Election First Round: 3rd Place
Renan Santos
61%
Ronaldo Caiado
13%
Flávio Bolsonaro
8%
17 outcomes$416K vol
Politics+4 pts
Which candidates will advance to Brazil's presidential runoff?
Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva
93%
Flavio Bolsonaro
79%
Renan Santos
14%
9 outcomes$410K vol
Politicsflat
ACA credits extended & House Winner 2026?
Not Extended & Democratic Party
81%
Not Extended & Republican Party
20%
2 outcomes$402K vol
Politics
Jimmy Lai released by...?
7%
Very unlikely$368K vol
Politicsflat
Trump out as President by July 31?
1%
Very unlikely$364K vol
Politics+4 pts
Which states will use new congressional maps in the midterms?
California
98%
Texas
97%
North Carolina
96%
22 outcomes$358K vol
Politics-9 pts
Alaska Senate Election Winner
Mary Peltola
60%
Dan Sullivan
41%
Ann Diener
0%
5 outcomes$357K vol
Politics-8 pts
Sinaloa Gov. Ruben Rocha extradited to US by...?
12%
Unlikely$341K vol
Politics-2 pts
Friedrich Merz out as Chancellor of Germany before 2027?
13%
Unlikely$334K vol
Politics-1 pt
Mecklenburg-Vorpommern Parliamentary Election Winner
AfD
80%
SPD
20%
CDU
0%
8 outcomes$333K vol
Politics-9 pts
Lecornu out as French PM by...?
December 31, 2026
18%
July 31, 2026
1%
2 outcomes$329K vol
Politics+2 pts
Another US government shutdown & House Winner 2026?
Shutdown & Democratic Party
84%
Shutdown & Republican Party
17%
2 outcomes$328K vol
Politics+1 pt
Who will Trump pardon before 2027?
Matt Gaetz
50%
Donald Brodie
46%
Roger Stone
42%
24 outcomes$322K vol
Politics
Will anyone be jailed over Epstein disclosures?
4%
Very unlikely$322K vol
Politics-3 pts
Which states will Donald Trump visit in 2026?
South Carolina
56%
California
54%
Indiana
53%
24 outcomes$315K vol
Politics+11 pts
Next Brazil Senate Election: Most Seats Won
PL
88%
MDB
11%
UNIÃO
0%
12 outcomes$277K vol
Politics+1 pt
Will Mamdani freeze NYC rents before 2027?
92%
Near certain$276K vol
Politics+3 pts
Brazil Presidential Election First Round: Margin of Victory
Lula da Silva 5-10%
41%
Lula da Silva 10-15%
25%
Lula da Silva <5%
22%
11 outcomes$269K vol
Politics-2 pts
Republican House seats after the 2026 midterm elections?
Below 190
28%
190-194
15%
195-199
14%
10 outcomes$261K vol
Politics+3 pts
Will Alberta vote for independence in 2026?
13%
Unlikely$239K vol
Politics-11 pts
Trump renames ICE to NICE by...?
December 31
18%
July 31
9%
2 outcomes$236K vol
Politics+3 pts
Rio de Janeiro Governor Election Winner
Eduardo Paes
89%
Douglas Ruas
4%
Rafa Luz
1%
15 outcomes$234K vol
Politicsflat
Who will Trump endorse?
1%
Very unlikely$230K vol
Politics+1 pt
Will the 2026 Midterm Elections happen as scheduled?
95%
Near certain$225K vol
Politics+1 pt
Greater Manchester Mayoral Election Winner
Bev Craig
92%
Sian Astley
7%
Geraldine Coggins
1%
14 outcomes$222K vol
Politics-1 pt
Prince Andrew sentenced to prison?
6%
Very unlikely$217K vol
Politics-5 pts
Who will advance from the Alaska Governor primary?
Tom Begich
92%
Bernadette Wilson
73%
Jonathan Kreiss-Tomkins
66%
20 outcomes$217K vol
Politics-4 pts
What will S&P 500 (SPX) hit by end of December?
↑ $7,800
51%
↓ $6,200
28%
↑ $8,200
25%
8 outcomes$212K vol
Politics+18 pts
Will the White House call a full lid by 6:30 PM? (June 29 - July 4)
48%
Toss-up$208K vol
Politics+3 pts
Argentina Presidential Election Winner
Javier Milei
51%
Axel Kicillof
43%
Mauricio Macri
2%
11 outcomes$208K vol
Politics-1 pt
JD Vance out as VP by...?
December 31
7%
July 31
1%
2 outcomes$203K vol
Politics+6 pts
FL-06 Republican Primary Winner
Randy Fine
96%
Dan Bilzerian
3%
Charles Gambaro
0%
7 outcomes$199K vol
Politicsflat
Michigan Governor Election Winner
Democrat
84%
Republican
14%
Independent
3%
3 outcomes$188K vol
Politics — frequently asked
What is the most likely politics outcome right now?
The most actively traded politics question is “Democratic Presidential Nominee 2028”, currently at 20% on the market.
How often do politics odds update?
WillThisHappen refreshes probabilities from the underlying prediction market roughly every 15 minutes, and shows the 7-day change so you can see which way sentiment is moving.
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