🏛️
Topic
Politics & Elections
Election outcomes, legislation, appointments and the odds shaping government.
90 live questions · odds as of Oct 9, 2026
Politics+1 pt
Democratic Presidential Nominee 2028
Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez
18%
Gavin Newsom
18%
Jon Ossoff
15%
24 outcomes$1.3B vol
Politics-1 pt
Presidential Election Winner 2028
JD Vance
20%
Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez
13%
Jon Ossoff
10%
24 outcomes$714.5M vol
Politics-2 pts
Republican Presidential Nominee 2028
J.D. Vance
49%
Marco Rubio
15%
Tucker Carlson
3%
24 outcomes$710.4M vol
Politics+25 pts
Brazil Presidential Election
Flávio Bolsonaro
86%
Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva
14%
2 outcomes$178.0M vol
Politics-2 pts
Next French Presidential Election
Marine Le Pen
41%
Édouard Philippe
22%
David Lisnard
13%
24 outcomes$147.5M vol
Politicsflat
California Governor Election Winner
Xavier Becerra
96%
Steve Hilton
4%
Tom Steyer
0%
23 outcomes$41.7M vol
Politicsflat
Will Trump acquire Greenland before 2027?
2%
Very unlikely$35.7M vol
Politics-2 pts
Which party will win the House in 2026?
Democratic Party
91%
Republican Party
10%
2 outcomes$15.3M vol
Politics-2 pts
Los Angeles Mayoral Election
Nithya Raman
58%
Karen Bass
43%
2 outcomes$15.1M vol
Politics+3 pts
María Corina Machado enters Venezuela by...?
December 31
48%
October 31
20%
October 15
7%
3 outcomes$6.6M vol
Politics
Which party will win the Senate in 2026?
Democratic Party
63%
Republican Party
36%
2 outcomes$6.1M vol
Politics
Next Prime Minister of Romania?
Luca Niculescu
58%
Sorin Grindeanu
13%
Alexandru Nazare
9%
24 outcomes$4.9M vol
Politicsflat
Epstein client list released by...?
6%
Very unlikely$4.4M vol
Politics+6 pts
Will Samuel Alito announce his retirement by...?
June 30, 2027
40%
December 31
14%
2 outcomes$4.3M vol
Politics-1 pt
Billionaire one-time wealth tax passes in California election 2026?
29%
Unlikely$3.9M vol
Politics
Jeffrey Epstein foul play confirmed by...?
3%
Very unlikely$3.1M vol
Politics
Republican Senate seats after the 2026 midterm elections?
≤47
39%
48
18%
49
13%
11 outcomes$3.1M vol
Politics
Friedrich Merz out as Chancellor of Germany by...?
December 31, 2027
58%
June 30, 2027
26%
March 31, 2027
21%
6 outcomes$2.8M vol
Politics+2 pts
Texas Senate Election Winner
James Talarico (D)
64%
Ken Paxton (R)
37%
2 outcomes$2.7M vol
Politics-1 pt
Jeffrey Epstein confirmed to be alive before 2027?
1%
Very unlikely$2.6M vol
Politicsflat
Will Tim Walz resign by...?
2%
Very unlikely$2.6M vol
Politics
Which party wins 2028 US Presidential Election?
Democratic
65%
Republican
35%
2 outcomes$2.5M vol
Politics+1 pt
Maine Senate Election Winner
Troy Jackson (D)
57%
Susan Collins (R)
44%
2 outcomes$2.2M vol
Politics+1 pt
Macron out by...?
5%
Very unlikely$2.2M vol
Politics
What will Gold (GC) hit__ by end of December?
↑ $4,500
50%
↑ $5,000
21%
↓ $3,500
12%
11 outcomes$2.0M vol
Politics
Mitch McConnell steps down from Senate before his term ends?
7%
Very unlikely$1.8M vol
Politics+2 pts
Kash Patel out by...?
December 31
20%
October 31
3%
2 outcomes$1.8M vol
Politics+3 pts
Who will leave Trump Administration before 2027?
Kristi Noem
38%
Markwayne Mullin
35%
Dan Scavino
27%
16 outcomes$1.4M vol
Politics
Michigan Senate Election Winner
Abdul El-Sayed (D)
72%
Mike Rogers (R)
30%
2 outcomes$1.4M vol
Politics+2 pts
Next Prime Minister of Spain?
Alberto Núñez Feijóo
81%
Pedro Sánchez
18%
Santiago Abascal
1%
16 outcomes$1.4M vol
Politics
What will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit in October 2026?
↓ $90
92%
↑ $95
63%
↓ $85
60%
20 outcomes$1.3M vol
Politics+1 pt
Alaska Senate Election Winner
Mary Peltola
74%
Sen. Dan Sullivan
27%
Ann Diener
0%
7 outcomes$1.2M vol
Politics-4 pts
Insurrection Act invoked by...?
11%
Unlikely$1.1M vol
Politics+3 pts
Ohio Senate Election Winner
Sherrod Brown (D)
62%
Jon Husted (R)
39%
2 outcomes$1.1M vol
Politics+1 pt
French election called by...?
7%
Very unlikely$1.1M vol
Politics-7 pts
Will Trump be impeached by...?
December 31, 2027
55%
June 30, 2027
44%
December 31, 2026
2%
3 outcomes$1.0M vol
Politicsflat
Next Prime Minister of Serbia?
Aleksandar Vučić
67%
Ilija Srdanović
31%
Vladan Đokić
1%
10 outcomes$926K vol
Politics+8 pts
Romanian PM Bolojan out by...?
December 31
83%
October 31
54%
2 outcomes$874K vol
Politics-10 pts
Kansas Senate Election Winner
Roger Marshall (R)
62%
Adam Hamilton (D)
39%
2 outcomes$851K vol
Politics+1 pt
UK election called by...?
June 30, 2027
25%
December 31, 2026
9%
2 outcomes$836K vol
Politics+2 pts
Argentina Presidential Election Winner
Javier Milei
56%
Axel Kicillof
32%
Sergio Massa
8%
19 outcomes$826K vol
Politics-3 pts
Iowa Senate Election Winner
Ashley Hinson (R)
56%
Josh Turek (D)
45%
2 outcomes$800K vol
Politics+67 pts
Rio de Janeiro Governor Election Winner
Douglas Ruas
96%
Eduardo Paes
3%
Dr. Luizinho
0%
16 outcomes$766K vol
Politicsflat
Will Trump pardon Ghislaine Maxwell by end of 2026?
3%
Very unlikely$764K vol
Politics-2 pts
South Carolina Senate Election Winner
Darline Graham Nordone (R)
86%
Annie Andrews (D)
16%
2 outcomes$721K vol
Politics-10 pts
Taipei Mayor Election Winner
Chiang Wan-an
74%
Puma Shen
27%
Kuo Hsi
0%
3 outcomes$713K vol
Politics-1 pt
Wisconsin Governor Election Winner
David Crowley (D)
82%
Tom Tiffany (R)
19%
2 outcomes$709K vol
Politics+5 pts
How many Republican Governors after the 2026 midterm elections?
22–23
33%
24–25
28%
<22
25%
7 outcomes$704K vol
Politics
Lebanon Parliamentary Election Winner
Amal Movement (Amal)
1%
Lebanese Forces (LF)
0%
Hezbollah (Hezb)
0%
23 outcomes$678K vol
Politicsflat
Will the 2026 Midterm Elections happen as scheduled?
98%
Near certain$618K vol
Politics-2 pts
Nebraska Senate Election Winner
Pete Ricketts (R)
72%
Independent
28%
Democrat
0%
3 outcomes$565K vol
Politics-4 pts
SAVE Act becomes law by...?
4%
Very unlikely$562K vol
Politics-1 pt
Lee Jae-myung arrested before 2027?
5%
Very unlikely$553K vol
Politicsflat
Will Trump resign by December 31, 2026?
2%
Very unlikely$543K vol
Politics-1 pt
Tim Walz charged by...?
3%
Very unlikely$523K vol
Politics+4 pts
Lima Mayoral Election Winner
Rafael López Aliaga
91%
Francis James Allison Oyague
2%
Carlos Ricardo Bruce Montes de Oca
0%
23 outcomes$511K vol
Politics+1 pt
2027 French Presidential Election: who will be on the ballot?
Jean-Luc Mélenchon
95%
Édouard Philippe
92%
Marine Le Pen
91%
24 outcomes$511K vol
Politics-5 pts
Serbia Parliamentary Election Winner
Aleksandar Vučić – United Serbia
60%
Student List – Students Win
40%
Ivica Dačić – Factor of Stability!
0%
10 outcomes$510K vol
Politics-4 pts
Who will Trump pardon before 2027?
Donald Brodie
32%
Stefan Brodie
17%
Ryan Salame
14%
24 outcomes$505K vol
Politics-2 pts
Who will Trump pick as the next Press Secretary?
Anna Kelly
23%
Scott Jennings
12%
Steven Cheung
10%
24 outcomes$487K vol
Politics-4 pts
Who will be arrested before 2027?
John Brennan
21%
Mahmoud Khalil
18%
Lee Jun-seok
11%
24 outcomes$487K vol
Politics-9 pts
Texas Governor Election Winner
Greg Abbott (R)
74%
Gina Hinojosa (D)
26%
2 outcomes$485K vol
Politics+14 pts
Next Ministerpräsident of Sachsen-Anhalt?
Ulrich Siegmund
80%
Sepp Müller
2%
Sven Schulze
2%
12 outcomes$431K vol
Politicsflat
Which states will use new congressional maps in the midterms?
Florida
99%
California
96%
Louisiana
95%
22 outcomes$420K vol
Politicsflat
ACA credits extended & House Winner 2026?
Not Extended & Democratic Party
92%
Not Extended & Republican Party
9%
2 outcomes$409K vol
Politics+4 pts
Next Premier of Quebec
Paul St-Pierre Plamondon
100%
Charles Milliard
0%
Éric Duhaime
0%
7 outcomes$406K vol
Politics+10 pts
What will S&P 500 (SPX) hit by end of December?
↑ $8,000
55%
↑ $8,200
39%
↓ $7,400
34%
14 outcomes$405K vol
Politicsflat
Jimmy Lai released by...?
5%
Very unlikely$389K vol
Politics+6 pts
Lecornu out as French PM by...?
December 31, 2026
32%
October 31, 2026
12%
2 outcomes$360K vol
Politics+6 pts
Nevada Governor Election Winner
Aaron Ford (D)
55%
Joe Lombardo (R)
46%
2 outcomes$356K vol
Politics-21 pts
Sinaloa Gov. Ruben Rocha extradited to US by...?
18%
Unlikely$355K vol
Politics-1 pt
Another US government shutdown & House Winner 2026?
Shutdown & Democratic Party
91%
Shutdown & Republican Party
9%
2 outcomes$350K vol
Politicsflat
Will anyone be jailed over Epstein disclosures?
5%
Very unlikely$344K vol
Politics-1 pt
Will Alberta vote for independence in 2026?
3%
Very unlikely$343K vol
Politics+33 pts
Which states will Donald Trump visit in 2026?
Kansas
94%
Montana
92%
Mississippi
54%
22 outcomes$328K vol
Politics+2 pts
Next French Presidential Election: who will advance to the 2nd round?
Marine Le Pen
91%
Édouard Philippe
46%
Jean-Luc Mélenchon
41%
24 outcomes$323K vol
Politics+3 pts
New Hampshire Senate Election Winner
Chris Pappas (D)
89%
John E. Sununu (R)
11%
2 outcomes$320K vol
Politics-2 pts
Republican House seats after the 2026 midterm elections?
Below 190
27%
190-194
15%
195-199
14%
10 outcomes$318K vol
Politics-2 pts
Andrew Tate released from custody by...?
8%
Very unlikely$308K vol
Politics+7 pts
Ohio Governor Election Winner
Amy Acton (D)
69%
Vivek Ramaswamy (R)
33%
2 outcomes$297K vol
Politics-1 pt
Lee Jae-myung out as president of South Korea in 2026?
6%
Very unlikely$290K vol
Politics-2 pts
Nigel Farage out as Reform UK leader by...?
March 31, 2027
25%
December 31, 2026
9%
2 outcomes$287K vol
Politics-1 pt
Florida Governor Election Winner
Byron Donalds (R)
78%
David Jolly (D)
23%
2 outcomes$279K vol
Politics+6 pts
When will Trump announce a new White House Press Secretary?
November 30
47%
October 14
13%
2 outcomes$267K vol
Politicsflat
Who will Trump endorse?
2%
Very unlikely$251K vol
Politics+2 pts
Vancouver Mayoral Election Winner
Pete Fry
66%
Ken Sim
35%
Kareem Allam
0%
13 outcomes$250K vol
Politics+2 pts
Michigan Governor Election Winner
Jocelyn Benson (D)
93%
John James (R)
6%
Independent
0%
3 outcomes$248K vol
Politics-1 pt
JD Vance out as VP by...?
4%
Very unlikely$245K vol
Politics
Trump renames ICE to NICE by...?
6%
Very unlikely$242K vol
Politics+1 pt
Which parties will be in next Swedish Government?
Swedish Social Democratic Party (S)
80%
Green Party (MP)
78%
Centre Party (C)
51%
9 outcomes$241K vol
Politics — frequently asked
What is the most likely politics outcome right now?
The most actively traded politics question is “Democratic Presidential Nominee 2028”, currently at 18% on the market.
How often do politics odds update?
WillThisHappen refreshes probabilities from the underlying prediction market roughly every 15 minutes, and shows the 7-day change so you can see which way sentiment is moving.
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