Nigel Farage out as Reform UK leader in 2026?
21%chance of yes
Probability over time
last 30 daysWhat this means
Traders currently price this at 21% — the market's collective estimate that it happens. The market leans toward no. The odds have been broadly stable over the last week.
How this resolves
This market will resolve to “Yes” if Nigel Farage ceases to be the Leader of Reform UK for any period of time between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. An announcement of Nigel Farage’s resignation/removal before this market's end date will immediately resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of when the announced resignation/removal goes into effect. The resolution source for this market will be information from Reform UK, however a consensus of credible reporting will also suffice.
Resolves: Dec 31, 2026
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