Presidential Election Winner 2028
24 outcomes · ranked
$713.6M tradedJD Vance
20%
Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez
14%
Jon Ossoff
10%
Marco Rubio
9%
Gavin Newsom
8%
Kamala Harris
4%
Josh Shapiro
3%
Pete Buttigieg
3%
Ron DeSantis
2%
Dwayne 'The Rock' Johnson
2%
Tucker Carlson
2%
Andy Beshear
2%
Probability over time
last 30 daysWhat this means
Across 24 outcomes, the market's favourite is JD Vance at 20%. Because these are separate markets, probabilities need not sum to exactly 100%.
How this resolves
The 2028 US Presidential Election is scheduled to take place on November 7, 2028. This market will resolve to the person who wins the 2028 US Presidential Election. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No.” The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race for the same candidate by the inauguration date (January 20, 2029) this market will resolve based on who is inaugurated.
Resolves: Nov 8, 2028
More in Politics
Politics-1 pt
Democratic Presidential Nominee 2028
Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez
18%
Gavin Newsom
16%
Jon Ossoff
15%
24 outcomes$1.3B vol
Politicsflat
Republican Presidential Nominee 2028
J.D. Vance
50%
Marco Rubio
15%
Tucker Carlson
3%
24 outcomes$709.8M vol
Politics+25 pts
Brazil Presidential Election
Flávio Bolsonaro
84%
Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva
16%
2 outcomes$174.3M vol