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Next French Presidential Election: who will advance to the 2nd round?

24 outcomes · ranked

$282K traded
Marine Le Pen
91%
Édouard Philippe
45%
Jean-Luc Mélenchon
44%
David Lisnard
14%
Gabriel Attal
7%
Bruno Retailleau
7%
François Hollande
6%
Jordan Bardella
5%
Dominique de Villepin
5%
François Ruffin
5%
Carole Delga
5%
Manuel Bompard
5%

Probability over time

last 30 days
87%Marine Le Pen · +5 pts over period91%

What this means

Across 24 outcomes, the market's favourite is Marine Le Pen at 91%. Because these are separate markets, probabilities need not sum to exactly 100%.

How this resolves

The next French presidential election is currently expected to be held around April 2027. This market pertains to the outcome of the next French presidential election, regardless of whether it follows the scheduled end of the current term or is held earlier. The President of France is elected via a two-round system; a candidate must secure over 50% of the vote to win outright in the first round. If no candidate achieves this, the top two contenders advance to a runoff second round. This market will resolve to "Yes" if the listed candidate advances to the second round of the next French presidential election or wins the election outright in the first round. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". If no such election occurs or the results of the first round of this election are not known by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No". This market will resolve …

Resolves: Apr 19, 2027

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