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Sinaloa Gov. Ruben Rocha extradited to US by...?

Very unlikely

-10 pts$342K traded

Probability over time

last 30 days
47%Yes · -37 pts over period10%

What this means

Traders currently price this at 10% — the market's collective estimate that it happens. The market leans toward no. Over the last 7 days the odds moved -10 pts.

How this resolves

This market will resolve to “Yes” if Rubén Rocha Moya is extradited to the United States between market creation and May 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. “Extradited to the United States” means Rocha Moya is physically transferred to U.S. government custody pursuant to an extradition process or equivalent custody transfer process. If Rocha Moya otherwise enters U.S. territory and is subsequently arrested or taken into U.S. government custody by the market’s end date, this will also qualify. An announcement that extradition has been requested, approved, ordered, or agreed to will not qualify unless Rocha Moya is physically transferred to, arrested by, or otherwise taken into U.S. government custody by the market’s end date. The resolution source for this market will be official information from Rubén Rocha Moya, the governments of Mexico and Sinaloa, …

Closed Jun 30, 2026 · awaiting resolution

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