Will Alberta vote for independence in 2026?
13%chance of yes
Probability over time
last 30 daysWhat this means
Traders currently price this at 13% — the market's collective estimate that it happens. The market leans toward no. Over the last 7 days the odds moved +2 pts.
How this resolves
This market will resolve to "Yes" if a referendum on Alberta's independence from Canada is passed by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". Any referendum that establishes Alberta's desire for independence, sets a framework for independence, or establishes independence from Canada will qualify. The primary resolution source for this market is official information from the government of Alberta, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
Resolves: Dec 31, 2026
More in Politics
Politicsflat
Democratic Presidential Nominee 2028
Gavin Newsom
20%
Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez
12%
Jon Ossoff
10%
24 outcomes$1.2B vol
Politics+1 pt
Republican Presidential Nominee 2028
J.D. Vance
39%
Marco Rubio
26%
Tucker Carlson
3%
24 outcomes$668.8M vol
Politics+1 pt
Presidential Election Winner 2028
JD Vance
20%
Marco Rubio
16%
Gavin Newsom
12%
24 outcomes$646.6M vol