Will Turkey schedule early presidential elections in 2026?
Probability over time
last 30 daysWhat this means
Traders currently price this at 2% — the market's collective estimate that it happens. The market leans toward no. Over the last 7 days the odds moved -5 pts.
How this resolves
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Turkey officially announces early presidential elections to occur before the currently scheduled 2028 Turkish presidential election, between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". A qualifying announcement requires an official public announcement by the Turkish government, the Presidency of Turkey, the Grand National Assembly of Turkey, or the Supreme Election Council of Turkey (YSK) establishing, approving, scheduling, or formally initiating a presidential election to occur before the currently scheduled 2028 election. Announcements of discussions, proposals, negotiations, speculation, or calls for early elections by politicians, parties, media, or commentators, without official action to schedule or initiate such elections, will not qualify. If early presidential elections are officially a…