Friedrich Merz out as Chancellor of Germany before 2027?
10%chance of yes
Probability over time
last 30 daysWhat this means
Traders currently price this at 10% — the market's collective estimate that it happens. The market leans toward no. Over the last 7 days the odds moved -5 pts.
How this resolves
This market will resolve to “Yes” if Friedrich Merz ceases to be the Chancellor of Germany for any period of time by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. An announcement of Friedrich Merz's resignation/removal before this market's end date will immediately resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of when the announced resignation/removal goes into effect. The resolution source for this market will be the government of Germany, however a consensus of credible reporting will also suffice.
Resolves: Dec 31, 2026
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