Friedrich Merz out as Chancellor of Germany by...?
6 outcomes · ranked
$2.8M tradedMarch 31, 2027
51%
December 31, 2027
27%
June 30, 2027
20%
December 31, 2026
9%
November 30, 2026
4%
October 31, 2026
2%
Probability over time
last 30 daysWhat this means
Across 6 outcomes, the market's favourite is March 31, 2027 at 51%. Because these are separate markets, probabilities need not sum to exactly 100%.
How this resolves
This market will resolve to “Yes” if Friedrich Merz ceases to be the Chancellor of Germany for any period of time by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. An announcement of Friedrich Merz's resignation/removal before this market's end date will immediately resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of when the announced resignation/removal goes into effect. The resolution source for this market will be the government of Germany, however a consensus of credible reporting will also suffice.
Resolves: Jan 1, 2027
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