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Topic
Economy & Rates
Inflation, the Fed, recession odds and the macro calls that move portfolios.
28 live questions · odds as of Aug 21, 2026
Economy-2 pts
Fed Decision in September?
No change
71%
25 bps increase
28%
25 bps decrease
1%
5 outcomes$42.6M vol
Economy-2 pts
Fed rate hike in 2026?
50%
Toss-up$7.7M vol
Economy-1 pt
What will the Fed rate be at the end of 2026?
3.75%
40%
4.0%
33%
4.25%
13%
15 outcomes$6.8M vol
Economy
Largest Company end of December 2026?
NVIDIA
74%
Apple
14%
Alphabet
10%
8 outcomes$6.1M vol
Economy-2 pts
Fed rate cut by...?
December Meeting
12%
October Meeting
4%
September Meeting
1%
3 outcomes$3.2M vol
Economy+2 pts
Fed rate hike by...?
October Meeting
41%
September Meeting
28%
2 outcomes$2.3M vol
Economy+1 pt
Largest Company end of August?
NVIDIA
98%
Apple
2%
Alphabet
0%
8 outcomes$2.2M vol
Economy-4 pts
What will Fed Rate hit before 2027?
↑ 4.25%
13%
↓ 3.25%
11%
↓ 2.0%
4%
20 outcomes$1.8M vol
Economy
US recession by end of 2026?
8%
Very unlikely$1.7M vol
Economy-4 pts
How high will inflation get in 2026?
Above 4.5%
14%
Above 5%
8%
Above 6%
4%
5 outcomes$1.4M vol
Economy
China Annual GDP Growth 2026
4.0–5.0%
89%
5.0–6.0%
8%
3.0–4.0%
1%
10 outcomes$880K vol
Economy
Fed decisions (Jun-Sep)
Pause–Pause–Pause
72%
Other
30%
Pause–Pause–Cut
1%
3 outcomes$754K vol
Economy+2 pts
Which CEOs will be out before 2027?
Andy Jassy - Amazon
11%
Sundar Pichai - Google
8%
Sam Altman - OpenAI
8%
5 outcomes$711K vol
Economy-1 pt
How high will US unemployment go in 2026?
5.0%
9%
5.5%
7%
6.0%
7%
5 outcomes$482K vol
Economy-4 pts
Jerome Powell out of Fed Board by…?
18%
Unlikely$436K vol
Economy+14 pts
2nd Largest Company end of August?
Apple
97%
Alphabet
3%
NVIDIA
1%
8 outcomes$415K vol
Economy+2 pts
Largest Company end of September?
NVIDIA
92%
Apple
7%
Alphabet
3%
9 outcomes$378K vol
Economy+1 pt
Bank of Japan Decision in September?
25 bps increase
85%
No change
14%
50+ bps increase
1%
5 outcomes$329K vol
Economy+11 pts
Jerome Powell federally charged by...?
14%
Unlikely$319K vol
Economy+13 pts
3rd Largest Company end of August?
Alphabet
96%
Apple
3%
Microsoft
1%
8 outcomes$316K vol
Economy+4 pts
How high will 10-year Treasury yield go before 2027?
4.8%
67%
5.0%
23%
5.2%
9%
6 outcomes$288K vol
Economy+5 pts
ECB Interest Rates: September 2026
25 bps increase
92%
No change
9%
50+ bps increase
0%
5 outcomes$247K vol
Economy+3 pts
How low will 10-year Treasury yield get before 2027?
3.9%
14%
3.6%
5%
3.8%
4%
8 outcomes$225K vol
Economy+9 pts
Will Venezuelan crude oil production reach __ barrels per day in 2026?
1.2m
67%
1.3m
19%
1.4m
9%
6 outcomes$183K vol
Economy+2 pts
Bank of England decision in September?
No change
92%
25 bps increase
7%
25 bps decrease
1%
5 outcomes$174K vol
Economy+3 pts
Which companies will the US take a stake in?
GlobalFoundries
89%
D-Wave
81%
Rigetti
77%
20 outcomes$171K vol
Economy
Predicted Fed rate under each Fed Chair
Kevin Warsh & Rate > 2.5%
94%
Kevin Warsh & Rate ≤ 2.5%
6%
2 outcomes$160K vol
Economy+2 pts
Fed emergency rate cut before 2027?
7%
Very unlikely$143K vol
Economy — frequently asked
What is the most likely economy outcome right now?
The most actively traded economy question is “Fed Decision in September?”, currently at 71% on the market.
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