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Topic
Economy & Rates
Inflation, the Fed, recession odds and the macro calls that move portfolios.
18 live questions · odds as of Oct 9, 2026
Economy+3 pts
Largest Company end of December 2026?
NVIDIA
83%
Apple
14%
Alphabet
2%
8 outcomes$7.9M vol
Economy-2 pts
US recession by end of 2026?
7%
Very unlikely$2.3M vol
Economy-3 pts
How high will inflation get in 2026?
Above 4.5%
14%
Above 5%
8%
Above 6%
4%
5 outcomes$1.5M vol
Economy
China Annual GDP Growth 2026
4.0–5.0%
93%
5.0–6.0%
7%
3.0–4.0%
1%
10 outcomes$920K vol
Economy+5 pts
Which CEOs will be out before 2027?
Brian Armstrong - Coinbase
10%
Andy Jassy - Amazon
5%
Sundar Pichai - Google
5%
5 outcomes$717K vol
Economyflat
How high will US unemployment go in 2026?
5.0%
5%
5.5%
2%
10.0%
2%
5 outcomes$558K vol
Economy
ECB Interest Rates: October 2026
No change
91%
25 bps increase
10%
50+ bps decrease
0%
5 outcomes$508K vol
Economy-2 pts
US Announces Diesel Export ban by...?
December 31
11%
October 31
2%
2 outcomes$492K vol
Economy+4 pts
Jerome Powell out of Fed Board by…?
20%
Unlikely$461K vol
Economy
How low will 10-year Treasury yield get before 2027?
Below 4.6%
12%
Below 4.7%
12%
Below 4.5%
6%
15 outcomes$346K vol
Economy+2 pts
Jerome Powell federally charged by...?
4%
Very unlikely$319K vol
Economy+14 pts
Bank of England decision in November?
25 bps increase
90%
No change
10%
50+ bps increase
0%
5 outcomes$295K vol
Economy+1 pt
Fed emergency rate cut before 2027?
4%
Very unlikely$244K vol
Economyflat
Largest Company end of October 2026?
NVIDIA
93%
Apple
5%
Alphabet
0%
9 outcomes$209K vol
Economy-1 pt
Which companies will the US take a stake in?
Unusual Machines
45%
Anduril
24%
OpenAI
14%
17 outcomes$208K vol
Economy+10 pts
How high will 30-year Treasury yield go before 2027?
5.70%
79%
5.80%
57%
5.90%
40%
4 outcomes$200K vol
Economy+12 pts
Bank of Japan Decision in October?
No change
96%
25 bps increase
4%
50+ bps increase
1%
5 outcomes$194K vol
Economy-18 pts
Will Venezuelan crude oil production reach __ barrels per day in 2026?
1.2m
55%
1.5m
34%
1.3m
16%
6 outcomes$188K vol
Economy — frequently asked
What is the most likely economy outcome right now?
The most actively traded economy question is “Largest Company end of December 2026?”, currently at 83% on the market.
How often do economy odds update?
WillThisHappen refreshes probabilities from the underlying prediction market roughly every 15 minutes, and shows the 7-day change so you can see which way sentiment is moving.
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