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Topic
Economy & Rates
Inflation, the Fed, recession odds and the macro calls that move portfolios.
19 live questions · odds as of Oct 5, 2026
Economy+10 pts
Largest Company end of December 2026?
NVIDIA
85%
Apple
10%
Alphabet
5%
8 outcomes$7.7M vol
Economy-1 pt
US recession by end of 2026?
8%
Very unlikely$2.3M vol
Economy-4 pts
How high will inflation get in 2026?
Above 4.5%
13%
Above 5%
8%
Above 6%
4%
5 outcomes$1.5M vol
Economy+1 pt
China Annual GDP Growth 2026
4.0–5.0%
93%
5.0–6.0%
6%
3.0–4.0%
1%
10 outcomes$919K vol
Economy-1 pt
Which CEOs will be out before 2027?
Andy Jassy - Amazon
5%
Brian Armstrong - Coinbase
5%
Sundar Pichai - Google
5%
5 outcomes$717K vol
Economy+1 pt
How high will US unemployment go in 2026?
5.0%
6%
5.5%
2%
7.0%
1%
5 outcomes$551K vol
Economy
US Announces Diesel Export ban by...?
December 31
17%
October 31
2%
2 outcomes$480K vol
Economy-1 pt
Jerome Powell out of Fed Board by…?
16%
Unlikely$460K vol
Economy+18 pts
ECB Interest Rates: October 2026
No change
93%
25 bps increase
7%
50+ bps increase
0%
5 outcomes$373K vol
Economy-9 pts
How low will 10-year Treasury yield get before 2027?
Below 4.7%
14%
Below 4.6%
11%
Below 4.5%
6%
15 outcomes$344K vol
Economyflat
Jerome Powell federally charged by...?
1%
Very unlikely$319K vol
Economy+2 pts
Bank of England decision in November?
25 bps increase
85%
No change
14%
50+ bps increase
1%
5 outcomes$275K vol
Economy+2 pts
Fed emergency rate cut before 2027?
5%
Very unlikely$244K vol
Economy-10 pts
Which companies will the US take a stake in?
Unusual Machines
46%
Anduril
21%
TSMC
17%
17 outcomes$195K vol
Economy+3 pts
Will Venezuelan crude oil production reach __ barrels per day in 2026?
1.2m
73%
1.3m
26%
1.4m
12%
6 outcomes$188K vol
Economy+17 pts
Bank of Japan Decision in October?
No change
89%
25 bps increase
12%
50+ bps increase
1%
5 outcomes$187K vol
Economy
Largest Company end of October 2026?
NVIDIA
96%
Apple
4%
Alphabet
0%
9 outcomes$178K vol
Economy+18 pts
How high will 30-year Treasury yield go before 2027?
5.65%
96%
5.70%
83%
5.80%
61%
5 outcomes$169K vol
Economyflat
Predicted Fed rate under each Fed Chair
Kevin Warsh & Rate > 2.5%
98%
Kevin Warsh & Rate ≤ 2.5%
2%
2 outcomes$162K vol
Economy — frequently asked
What is the most likely economy outcome right now?
The most actively traded economy question is “Largest Company end of December 2026?”, currently at 85% on the market.
How often do economy odds update?
WillThisHappen refreshes probabilities from the underlying prediction market roughly every 15 minutes, and shows the 7-day change so you can see which way sentiment is moving.
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