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Bank of Canada Decision in December?

5 outcomes · ranked

$183K traded
No Change
60%
25 bps increase
39%
25 bps decrease
0%
50+ bps increase
0%
50+ bps decrease
0%

Probability over time

last 30 days
47%No Change · +13 pts over period60%

What this means

Across 5 outcomes, the market's favourite is No Change at 60%. Because these are separate markets, probabilities need not sum to exactly 100%.

How this resolves

This market will resolve according to the change in basis points in the target for the overnight rate resulting from the December 2026 interest rate announcement of the Bank of Canada, relative to the level it was prior to this announcement. The resolution source will be official information from the Bank of Canada, including the statement or release from its December 2026 interest rate announcement, scheduled for December 9, 2026, as listed on the official Bank of Canada calendar (https://www.bankofcanada.ca/core-functions/monetary-policy/key-interest-rate/#target-dates). This market may resolve as soon as the statement or release of the Bank of Canada resulting from its December 2026 interest rate decision with relevant data is issued. If the specified rate is defined by an upper and lower bound, the relevant change will be the change to the upper bound. If the specified rate is cha…

Resolves: Dec 9, 2026Source of truth: https://www.bankofcanada.ca/core-functions/monetary-policy/key-interest-rate/#target-dates

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