🌡️
Topic
Climate & Weather
Temperature records, storms and climate milestones, quantified by markets.
12 live questions · odds as of Jul 5, 2026
Climate-2 pts
Hantavirus pandemic in 2026?
2%
Very unlikely$16.2M vol
Climate-3 pts
Ebola pandemic in 2026?
5%
Very unlikely$600K vol
Climate
PortlandFire vs. Seattle Storm
50%
Toss-up$296K vol
Climate
Highest temperature in Hong Kong on July 4?
32°C
99%
31°C
0%
28°C
0%
11 outcomes$274K vol
Climate
Highest temperature in Hong Kong on July 3?
31°C
100%
30°C
0%
25°C or below
0%
11 outcomes$247K vol
Climate
Highest temperature in Hong Kong on July 5?
33°C
100%
32°C
0%
24°C or below
0%
11 outcomes$220K vol
Climate
England-Mexico game rescheduled to different time?
27%
Unlikely$168K vol
Climate
Highest temperature in NYC on July 5?
78-79°F
69%
76-77°F
20%
80-81°F
11%
11 outcomes$167K vol
Climate
Highest temperature in London on July 5?
28°C
99%
29°C
0%
30°C
0%
11 outcomes$161K vol
Climate
Highest temperature in Paris on July 5?
29°C
100%
30°C
0%
26°C or below
0%
11 outcomes$150K vol
Climate+2 pts
Floyd Mayweather vs. Manny Pacquiao 2
53%
Toss-up$110K vol
Climate
Highest temperature in Munich on July 5?
26°C
100%
22°C or below
0%
23°C
0%
11 outcomes$110K vol
Climate — frequently asked
What is the most likely climate outcome right now?
The most actively traded climate question is “Hantavirus pandemic in 2026?”, currently at 2% on the market.
How often do climate odds update?
WillThisHappen refreshes probabilities from the underlying prediction market roughly every 15 minutes, and shows the 7-day change so you can see which way sentiment is moving.
Other topics
Start following the future.
Browse every probability free. Create an account to build a watchlist and get a weekly digest. Upgrade any time for alerts and API access.