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Topic
Climate & Weather
Temperature records, storms and climate milestones, quantified by markets.
5 live questions · odds as of Aug 21, 2026
Climateflat
Hantavirus pandemic in 2026?
4%
Very unlikely$17.9M vol
Climateflat
Ebola pandemic in 2026?
4%
Very unlikely$699K vol
Climate
Highest temperature in Hong Kong on August 21?
31°C
100%
24°C or below
0%
25°C
0%
11 outcomes$244K vol
Climate
Highest temperature in Seoul (Incheon) on August 21?
27°C
97%
28°C
3%
23°C or below
0%
11 outcomes$238K vol
Climate+5 pts
Floyd Mayweather vs. Manny Pacquiao 2
55%
Leaning yes$148K vol
Climate — frequently asked
What is the most likely climate outcome right now?
The most actively traded climate question is “Hantavirus pandemic in 2026?”, currently at 4% on the market.
How often do climate odds update?
WillThisHappen refreshes probabilities from the underlying prediction market roughly every 15 minutes, and shows the 7-day change so you can see which way sentiment is moving.
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