🔬
Topic
Science & Health
Breakthroughs, approvals, space milestones and public-health outcomes.
16 live questions · odds as of Oct 9, 2026
Scienceflat
Will the US confirm that aliens exist by...?
December 31
3%
October 31
1%
2 outcomes$72.2M vol
Science-9 pts
Where will 2026 rank among the hottest years on record?
1
63%
2
38%
4
0%
6 outcomes$3.7M vol
Science+14 pts
How many 7.0 or above earthquakes in 2026?
14–16
63%
11–13
29%
17–19
20%
4 outcomes$1.5M vol
Science+1 pt
New pandemic in 2026?
6%
Very unlikely$1.2M vol
Science-10 pts
How many large volcano eruptions (VEI ≥4) in 2026?
1
38%
0
28%
2
9%
6 outcomes$1.2M vol
Science
Will the Doge-1 Lunar Mission launch by...?
December 31, 2027
70%
June 30, 2027
31%
December 31, 2026
4%
3 outcomes$1.1M vol
Science
10.0 or above earthquake before 2027?
1%
Very unlikely$826K vol
Science-12 pts
How many SpaceX Starship launches reach space in 2026?
5-6
51%
<5
48%
7-8
1%
8 outcomes$521K vol
Science-3 pts
Will CMI declare a Millennium Prize Problem solved by ___?
December 31, 2028
36%
December 31, 2027
13%
December 31, 2026
3%
3 outcomes$434K vol
Science+5 pts
Will any Category 4 hurricane make landfall in the US in before 2027?
12%
Unlikely$348K vol
Scienceflat
9.0 or above earthquake before 2027?
3%
Very unlikely$330K vol
Science+5 pts
5kt meteor strike in 2026?
18%
Unlikely$315K vol
Science
Plague pandemic in 2026?
4%
Very unlikely$292K vol
Science-2 pts
Natural Disaster in 2026?
7%
Very unlikely$248K vol
Science-1 pt
New COVID variant of concern before 2027?
13%
Unlikely$247K vol
Science-1 pt
Major meteor strike (10kt+) in 2026?
7%
Very unlikely$208K vol
Science — frequently asked
What is the most likely science outcome right now?
The most actively traded science question is “Will the US confirm that aliens exist by...?”, currently at 3% on the market.
How often do science odds update?
WillThisHappen refreshes probabilities from the underlying prediction market roughly every 15 minutes, and shows the 7-day change so you can see which way sentiment is moving.
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