🔬
Topic
Science & Health
Breakthroughs, approvals, space milestones and public-health outcomes.
19 live questions · odds as of Jul 5, 2026
Science-3 pts
Will the US confirm that aliens exist by...?
December 31
6%
September 30
4%
2 outcomes$61.5M vol
Science-2 pts
Where will 2026 rank among the hottest years on record?
2
65%
1
28%
3
3%
6 outcomes$3.0M vol
Science+13 pts
How many 7.0 or above earthquakes in 2026?
14–16
53%
11–13
20%
17–19
20%
6 outcomes$1.3M vol
Science-6 pts
How many large volcano eruptions (VEI ≥4) in 2026?
0
63%
1
25%
2
4%
6 outcomes$1.2M vol
Science-1 pt
Will the Doge-1 Lunar Mission launch by...?
December 31, 2027
68%
June 30, 2027
53%
December 31, 2026
14%
3 outcomes$851K vol
Science-2 pts
New pandemic in 2026?
8%
Very unlikely$811K vol
Scienceflat
10.0 or above earthquake before 2027?
3%
Very unlikely$687K vol
Science+3 pts
How many SpaceX Starship launches reach space in 2026?
<5
43%
5-6
39%
7-8
12%
8 outcomes$479K vol
Science-4 pts
Will any Category 4 hurricane make landfall in the US in before 2027?
30%
Unlikely$334K vol
Science-5 pts
5kt meteor strike in 2026?
26%
Unlikely$309K vol
Science+1 pt
9.0 or above earthquake before 2027?
7%
Very unlikely$247K vol
Science
New COVID variant of concern before 2027?
17%
Unlikely$242K vol
Science-3 pts
Natural Disaster in 2026?
22%
Unlikely$225K vol
Science+3 pts
Major meteor strike (10kt+) in 2026?
13%
Unlikely$172K vol
Science-5 pts
Will any month of 2026 be the hottest on record?
76%
Likely$143K vol
Scienceflat
Will any Category 5 hurricane make landfall in the US in before 2027?
16%
Unlikely$138K vol
Science
Hantavirus vaccine in 2026?
6%
Very unlikely$126K vol
Scienceflat
Major volcano eruption (VEI ≥6) in 2026?
6%
Very unlikely$116K vol
Science+1 pt
1 megaton meteor strike in 2026?
4%
Very unlikely$113K vol
Science — frequently asked
What is the most likely science outcome right now?
The most actively traded science question is “Will the US confirm that aliens exist by...?”, currently at 6% on the market.
How often do science odds update?
WillThisHappen refreshes probabilities from the underlying prediction market roughly every 15 minutes, and shows the 7-day change so you can see which way sentiment is moving.
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