🔬
Topic
Science & Health
Breakthroughs, approvals, space milestones and public-health outcomes.
17 live questions · odds as of Aug 22, 2026
Science-1 pt
Will the US confirm that aliens exist by...?
December 31
4%
September 30
2%
2 outcomes$65.3M vol
Science+10 pts
Where will 2026 rank among the hottest years on record?
1
76%
2
21%
3
2%
6 outcomes$3.4M vol
Science+4 pts
How many 7.0 or above earthquakes in 2026?
14–16
45%
17–19
37%
20+
12%
5 outcomes$1.4M vol
Science+10 pts
How many large volcano eruptions (VEI ≥4) in 2026?
0
63%
1
26%
2
4%
6 outcomes$1.2M vol
Science-1 pt
New pandemic in 2026?
6%
Very unlikely$1.0M vol
Scienceflat
Will the Doge-1 Lunar Mission launch by...?
December 31, 2027
68%
June 30, 2027
54%
December 31, 2026
5%
3 outcomes$936K vol
Scienceflat
10.0 or above earthquake before 2027?
1%
Very unlikely$808K vol
Science-1 pt
How many SpaceX Starship launches reach space in 2026?
5-6
59%
<5
41%
11-12
0%
8 outcomes$502K vol
Science
Will any Category 4 hurricane make landfall in the US in before 2027?
16%
Unlikely$341K vol
Science-4 pts
5kt meteor strike in 2026?
27%
Unlikely$312K vol
Science-1 pt
9.0 or above earthquake before 2027?
4%
Very unlikely$279K vol
Science+4 pts
New COVID variant of concern before 2027?
9%
Very unlikely$245K vol
Science+6 pts
Natural Disaster in 2026?
26%
Unlikely$241K vol
Scienceflat
Major meteor strike (10kt+) in 2026?
11%
Unlikely$179K vol
Scienceflat
Will any Category 5 hurricane make landfall in the US in before 2027?
12%
Unlikely$139K vol
Science
Hantavirus vaccine in 2026?
6%
Very unlikely$131K vol
Science-2 pts
Major volcano eruption (VEI ≥6) in 2026?
5%
Very unlikely$128K vol
Science — frequently asked
What is the most likely science outcome right now?
The most actively traded science question is “Will the US confirm that aliens exist by...?”, currently at 4% on the market.
How often do science odds update?
WillThisHappen refreshes probabilities from the underlying prediction market roughly every 15 minutes, and shows the 7-day change so you can see which way sentiment is moving.
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