Will the Doge-1 Lunar Mission launch by...?
3 outcomes · ranked
$1.0M tradedProbability over time
last 30 daysWhat this means
Across 3 outcomes, the market's favourite is December 31, 2027 at 70%. Because these are separate markets, probabilities need not sum to exactly 100%.
How this resolves
If the Doge-1 12U Lunar Cube satellite successfully launches from its launch pad by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Yes”. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No.” The outcome of any launch will be corroborated by examining official video provided by SpaceX (https://www.youtube.com/c/SpaceX), as well as secondary video feeds and/or written reports if necessary. Any subsequent anomaly (e.g., an explosion) after the launch will have no bearing on the outcome. Any name change of the satellite with another vehicle will have no bearing on the outcome of the market.