New pandemic in 2026?
7%chance of yes
Probability over time
last 30 daysWhat this means
Traders currently price this at 7% — the market's collective estimate that it happens. The market leans toward no. Over the last 7 days the odds moved +3 pts.
How this resolves
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the World Health Organization (WHO) declares any disease a pandemic between January 1, 2026 and December 31, 2026 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". The resolution source will be official announcements from the World Health Organization.
Resolves: Jan 1, 2027