Natural Disaster in 2026?
22%chance of yes
Probability over time
last 30 daysWhat this means
Traders currently price this at 22% — the market's collective estimate that it happens. The market leans toward no. Over the last 7 days the odds moved -5 pts.
How this resolves
This market will resolve to “Yes” if any of the following conditions are met during 2026 ET: - A Category 5 hurricane makes landfall in the US - A major meteor strikes (10kt+) - A major volcano erupts (VEI ≥6) - An 8.5+ earthquake occurs Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. If required information from the specified sources remains outstanding, the market may stay open until February 28, 2027, 11:59 PM ET. The full rules for this market can be found here: https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/Natural+Disaster+in+2026.pdf
Resolves: Dec 31, 2026
More in Science
Science-3 pts
Will the US confirm that aliens exist by...?
December 31
6%
September 30
4%
2 outcomes$61.5M vol
Science-2 pts
Where will 2026 rank among the hottest years on record?
2
65%
1
28%
3
3%
6 outcomes$3.0M vol
Science+13 pts
How many 7.0 or above earthquakes in 2026?
14–16
53%
11–13
20%
17–19
20%
6 outcomes$1.3M vol