New COVID variant of concern before 2027?
9%chance of yes
Probability over time
last 30 daysWhat this means
Traders currently price this at 9% — the market's collective estimate that it happens. The market leans toward no. Over the last 7 days the odds moved +4 pts.
How this resolves
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the CDC identifies a new COVID variant of concern between December 1, 2025, and December 31, 2026, 11:59PM ET. Otherwise this market will resolve to "No". The CDC's variant classification scheme can be found here: https://stacks.cdc.gov/view/cdc/107682. The resolution source for this market will be official information from the CDC.
Resolves: Dec 31, 2026