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Which companies will the US take a stake in?

20 outcomes · ranked

$171K traded
GlobalFoundries
89%
D-Wave
81%
Rigetti
80%
Unusual Machines
50%
OpenAI
37%
Anduril
19%
IonQ
16%
Nvidia
14%
Lockheed Martin
13%
Palantir
11%
Anthropic
11%
TSMC
10%

Probability over time

last 30 days
81%GlobalFoundries · +8 pts over period89%

What this means

Across 20 outcomes, the market's favourite is GlobalFoundries at 89%. Because these are separate markets, probabilities need not sum to exactly 100%.

How this resolves

This market will resolve to “Yes” if the U.S. federal government takes a stake in the listed company by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. Takes a stake refers to the U.S. federal government acquiring direct equity ownership, voting shares, convertible rights treated as equity, or equivalent ownership interests in the listed company or of a legal vehicle that primarily owns the listed company. Stakes acquired through independent entities entirely controlled or owned by the U.S. federal government (e.g. a sovereign wealth fund, state-owned enterprise, etc.) will count. Non-equity financial instruments or stakes acquired by private persons or entities not owned or controlled by the US federal government will not count; acquisitions by by states, pensions, index or mutual funds, or consortia will not qualify. An official US federal government anno…

Resolves: Dec 31, 2026

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