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Which companies will the US take a stake in?

17 outcomes · ranked

$209K traded
Unusual Machines
45%
Anduril
24%
OpenAI
13%
TSMC
12%
Anthropic
11%
Lockheed Martin
10%
IonQ
10%
Micron
9%
Boeing
8%
Freeport-McMoRan
8%
Eli Lilly
6%
Pfizer
6%

Probability over time

last 30 days
33%Unusual Machines · +12 pts over period45%

What this means

Across 17 outcomes, the market's favourite is Unusual Machines at 45%. Because these are separate markets, probabilities need not sum to exactly 100%.

How this resolves

This market will resolve to “Yes” if the U.S. federal government takes a stake in the listed company by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. Takes a stake refers to the U.S. federal government acquiring direct equity ownership, voting shares, convertible rights treated as equity, or equivalent ownership interests in the listed company or of a legal vehicle that primarily owns the listed company. Stakes acquired through independent entities entirely controlled or owned by the U.S. federal government (e.g. a sovereign wealth fund, state-owned enterprise, etc.) will count. Non-equity financial instruments or stakes acquired by private persons or entities not owned or controlled by the US federal government will not count; acquisitions by by states, pensions, index or mutual funds, or consortia will not qualify. An official US federal government anno…

Resolves: Jan 1, 2027

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