Will Trump be impeached by...?
3 outcomes · ranked
$1.0M tradedDecember 31, 2027
66%
June 30, 2027
50%
December 31, 2026
2%
Probability over time
last 30 daysWhat this means
Across 3 outcomes, the market's favourite is December 31, 2027 at 66%. Because these are separate markets, probabilities need not sum to exactly 100%.
How this resolves
This market will resolve to “Yes“ if the US House of Representatives by simple majority vote to approve or pass one or more articles of impeachment of President Donald Trump, between July 24, 2025, and the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". Neither trial nor conviction by the US Senate, nor removal from office, is necessary to resolve this market to “Yes“. The primary resolution source for this market will be information from the federal government of the United States, however a consensus of credible reporting will be used.
Resolves: Jan 1, 2027
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