Will Trump be impeached by end of 2026?
2%chance of yes
Probability over time
last 30 daysWhat this means
Traders currently price this at 2% — the market's collective estimate that it happens. The market leans toward no. The odds have been broadly stable over the last week.
How this resolves
This market will resolve to “Yes“ if the US House of Representatives by simple majority vote to approve or pass one or more articles of impeachment of President Donald Trump, between July 24, 2025, and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". Neither trial nor conviction by the US Senate, nor removal from office, is necessary to resolve this market to “Yes“. The primary resolution source for this market will be information from the federal government of the United States, however a consensus of credible reporting will be used.
Resolves: Dec 31, 2026
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