Which party wins 2028 US Presidential Election?
Probability over time
last 30 daysWhat this means
Across 2 outcomes, the market's favourite is Democratic at 59%. Because these are separate markets, probabilities need not sum to exactly 100%.
How this resolves
The 2028 United States presidential election will be held on Tuesday, November 7, 2028. This market will resolve to the political party whose candidate is elected the next President of the United States in the 2028 election. The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same party. If all three sources haven’t called the race for the same party by the inauguration date (January 20, 2029) this market will resolve based on who is inaugurated.
Resolves: Nov 7, 2028
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Democratic Presidential Nominee 2028
Gavin Newsom
20%
Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez
12%
Jon Ossoff
10%
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Republican Presidential Nominee 2028
J.D. Vance
39%
Marco Rubio
26%
Tucker Carlson
3%
24 outcomes$668.8M vol
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Presidential Election Winner 2028
JD Vance
20%
Marco Rubio
16%
Gavin Newsom
12%
24 outcomes$646.6M vol