Who will Trump pardon before 2027?
24 outcomes · ranked
$324K tradedMatt Gaetz
49%
Daniel Penny
47%
Donald Brodie
44%
Roger Stone
39%
Stefan Brodie
31%
Roger Ver
14%
Keonne Rodriguez
14%
Bob Menendez
14%
Ryan Salame
14%
Eric Adams
13%
Martin Shkreli
13%
Diddy
10%
Probability over time
last 30 daysWhat this means
Across 24 outcomes, the market's favourite is Matt Gaetz at 49%. Because these are separate markets, probabilities need not sum to exactly 100%.
How this resolves
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the listed individual receives a presidential pardon, commutation, or reprieve from Donald Trump between November 17, 2025 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". The primary resolution source for whether the individual is pardoned or not will be official information from the US government, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
Resolves: Dec 31, 2026
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