Will Trump meet with Flávio Bolsonaro in 2026?
Probability over time
last 30 daysWhat this means
Traders currently price this at 24% — the market's collective estimate that it happens. The market leans toward no. Over the last 7 days the odds moved -19 pts.
How this resolves
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Donald Trump meets with Flávio Bolsonaro between October 27, and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". An exchange of words, handshake, direct conversation, or other clear personal interaction between the named individuals will qualify as a meeting. Merely standing in proximity, making eye contact, or being present in the same room or event without direct interaction will not qualify. A meeting is defined as any encounter where both listed individual and Trump are present and interact with each other in person. The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.