Skip to content
PoliticsPoliticsCongressSenate

Mitch McConnell steps down from Senate before his term ends?

Very unlikely

-2 pts$1.8M traded

Probability over time

last 30 days
17%Yes · -10 pts over period7%

What this means

Traders currently price this at 7% — the market's collective estimate that it happens. The market leans toward no. Over the last 7 days the odds moved -2 pts.

How this resolves

This market will resolve to “Yes” if Mitch McConnell formally announces an intention to step down or otherwise vacates his U.S. Senate seat before his current term is scheduled to end (January 3, 2027, 11:59 PM ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No.” An announcement will qualify only if it indicates that McConnell will leave office prior to the scheduled end of his term. Statements reaffirming an existing plan to retire at the end of his term will not qualify. The primary resolution sources will be official statements from Mitch McConnell, his office or representatives, and/or official communications from the U.S. Senate or government.

Resolves: Jan 4, 2027

More in Politics