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Who will be arrested before 2027?

24 outcomes · ranked

$219K traded
John Brennan
40%
Mahmoud Khalil
25%
James Clapper
19%
Letitia James
18%
José Luis Rodríguez Zapatero
17%
Candace Owens
11%
Loretta Lynch
11%
Brandon Johnson
11%
Anthony Fauci
9%
James Comey
8%
Tom Homan
8%
Susan Rice
8%

Probability over time

last 30 days
27%John Brennan · +13 pts over period40%

What this means

Across 24 outcomes, the market's favourite is John Brennan at 40%. Because these are separate markets, probabilities need not sum to exactly 100%.

How this resolves

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the listed individual is arrested by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". A qualifying arrest/detention includes: * Being taken into physical custody by law enforcement authorities (including federal, state, local, military, or international law enforcement) * Voluntarily surrendering to law enforcement authorities in response to an arrest warrant * Being formally booked or processed following detention * Being handcuffed by a state authority and taken to a police station * Surrendering at a police station or courthouse with their attorney * Being placed under house arrest or electronic monitoring The following scenarios will NOT qualify as an arrest/detention * An arrest warrant being issued but not executed * Being briefly detained but not arrested (e.g. such as in the South Korean judicial system when an in…

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