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Who will be arrested before 2027?

24 outcomes · ranked

$483K traded
John Brennan
22%
Mahmoud Khalil
19%
Lee Jun-seok
11%
Brandon Johnson
10%
James Comey
10%
Tom Homan
9%
Anthony Fauci
8%
James Clapper
7%
Candace Owens
7%
Benjamin Netanyahu
6%
Susan Rice
6%
Letitia James
4%

Probability over time

last 30 days
21%John Brennan · +2 pts over period22%

What this means

Across 24 outcomes, the market's favourite is John Brennan at 22%. Because these are separate markets, probabilities need not sum to exactly 100%.

How this resolves

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the listed individual is arrested by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". A qualifying arrest/detention includes: * Being taken into physical custody by law enforcement authorities (including federal, state, local, military, or international law enforcement) * Voluntarily surrendering to law enforcement authorities in response to an arrest warrant * Being formally booked or processed following detention * Being handcuffed by a state authority and taken to a police station * Surrendering at a police station or courthouse with their attorney * Being placed under house arrest or electronic monitoring The following scenarios will NOT qualify as an arrest/detention * An arrest warrant being issued but not executed * Being briefly detained but not arrested (e.g. such as in the South Korean judicial system when an in…

Resolves: Jan 1, 2027

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