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2027 French Presidential Election: who will be on the ballot?

24 outcomes · ranked

$362K traded
Jean-Luc Mélenchon
95%
Nathalie Arthaud
89%
Édouard Philippe
88%
Marine Le Pen
86%
Fabien Roussel
79%
Éric Zemmour
70%
Bruno Retailleau
67%
Raphaël Glucksmann
57%
Nicolas Dupont-Aignan
56%
David Lisnard
54%
François Ruffin
37%
François Hollande
30%

Probability over time

last 30 days
95%Jean-Luc Mélenchon · +1 pts over period96%

What this means

Across 24 outcomes, the market's favourite is Jean-Luc Mélenchon at 95%. Because these are separate markets, probabilities need not sum to exactly 100%.

How this resolves

The next French presidential election is currently expected to be held in April 2027. Prior to the election, the French Constitutional Council is expected to publish the official list of candidates to be included on the ballot for the first round of this election. This market will resolve to “Yes” if the listed individual is included on the official candidate list for the first round of the 2027 French presidential election. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. If no such candidate list is published prior to the election, this market will resolve based on which candidates actually appear on the ballot when the election takes place. If no list is published and the specified election does not take place by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “No”. The primary resolution source for this market will be the official candidate list published by the French Constit…

Resolves: Apr 17, 2027

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