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2027 French Presidential Election: who will be on the ballot?

24 outcomes · ranked

$227K traded
Jean-Luc Mélenchon
96%
Marine Le Pen
90%
Édouard Philippe
84%
Nathalie Arthaud
83%
Fabien Roussel
78%
Bruno Retailleau
74%
Éric Zemmour
73%
David Lisnard
65%
Nicolas Dupont-Aignan
64%
Raphaël Glucksmann
63%
Dominique de Villepin
39%
Gabriel Attal
32%

Probability over time

last 30 days
95%Jean-Luc Mélenchon · +1 pts over period96%

What this means

Across 24 outcomes, the market's favourite is Jean-Luc Mélenchon at 96%. Because these are separate markets, probabilities need not sum to exactly 100%.

How this resolves

The next French presidential election is currently expected to be held in April 2027. Prior to the election, the French Constitutional Council is expected to publish the official list of candidates to be included on the ballot for the first round of this election. This market will resolve to “Yes” if the listed individual is included on the official candidate list for the first round of the 2027 French presidential election. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. If no such candidate list is published prior to the election, this market will resolve based on which candidates actually appear on the ballot when the election takes place. If no list is published and the specified election does not take place by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “No”. The primary resolution source for this market will be the official candidate list published by the French Constit…

Resolves: Apr 17, 2027

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