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France declares state of emergency by...?

2 outcomes · ranked

$270K traded
December 31
19%
October 31
7%

Probability over time

last 30 days
19%December 31 · +1 pts over period19%

What this means

Across 2 outcomes, the market's favourite is December 31 at 19%. Because these are separate markets, probabilities need not sum to exactly 100%.

How this resolves

This market will resolve to "Yes" if a legally binding decree declaring a state of emergency (état d'urgence) in France enters into effect at any point between this market's creation and the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". To count toward resolution, the corresponding decree must explicitly constitute a "state of emergency" (état d'urgence) as defined by Law No. 55-385 of April 3, 1955 (Loi n° 55-385 du 3 avril 1955 relative à l'état d'urgence). Only declarations explicitly constituting a state of emergency under Law No. 55-385 will count. A declaration covering any part of the territory of the French Republic, including overseas departments, regions, and collectivities, will qualify. A declaration of a public health state of emergency (état d'urgence sanitaire) under the Public Health Code, a state of siege (état de siège) under Article 36 o…

Resolves: Jan 1, 2027

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