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Which bills will become law in 2026?

14 outcomes · ranked

$201K traded
Export-control chip security
43%
Data center utility cost protection
22%
AI-chip export licensing
19%
NO FAKES Act
10%
FISA Section 702 reauthorization
10%
$2.50 Coin
8%
Critical-minerals stockpile
8%
Credit-card routing competition
8%
Film/TV production expensing
6%
DEFIANCE Act
5%
SHOWER Act
5%
SELF DRIVE Act
4%

Probability over time

last 30 days
38%Export-control chip security · +5 pts over period43%

What this means

Across 14 outcomes, the market's favourite is Export-control chip security at 43%. Because these are separate markets, probabilities need not sum to exactly 100%.

How this resolves

This market will resolve to "Yes" if X is passed by both chambers of the U.S. Congress and signed into law by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". Qualifying legislation includes Qualifying legislation may include joint resolutions and must pass both the House and the Senate, and must be signed by the President, become law without signature while Congress remains in session, or become law through veto override. Presidential pocket vetoes that expire resolve to "No". The primary resolution sources for this market will be Congress.gov’s legislation tracker (https://www.congress.gov/bill/119th-congress/house-bill/22), the Library of Congress (congress.gov), and other official information from the government of the United States; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

Resolves: Jan 1, 2027Source of truth: https://www.congress.gov/bill/119th-congress/senate-bill/4591

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