Insurrection Act invoked by...?
11%chance of yes
Probability over time
last 30 daysWhat this means
Traders currently price this at 11% — the market's collective estimate that it happens. The market leans toward no. The odds have been broadly stable over the last week.
How this resolves
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Donald Trump officially invokes the Insurrection Act of 1807 by the listed date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, it will resolve to "No". For the purposes of this market, "invoke" means that the President formally announces the use of the Insurrection Act as legal authority for deploying active-duty U.S. military forces or federalizing the National Guard in response to civil disorder, insurrection, or rebellion. The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Resolves: Jan 1, 2027
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