Macron out by...?
3%chance of yes
Probability over time
last 30 daysWhat this means
Traders currently price this at 3% — the market's collective estimate that it happens. The market leans toward no. Over the last 7 days the odds moved +3 pts.
How this resolves
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Emmanuel Macron ceases to be President of France for any length of time between January 2 and December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET (inclusive). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". If Macron departs from office before the expiry date, the market should resolve immediately. The primary resolution source for this market will be information from the government of France, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
Closed Jun 30, 2026 · awaiting resolution
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