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Who will leave Trump Administration before 2027?

16 outcomes · ranked

$1.3M traded
Dan Scavino
65%
David Sacks
42%
Kristi Noem
40%
Kash Patel
38%
Robert F. Kennedy Jr.
31%
Howard Lutnick
31%
Susie Wiles
25%
Pete Hegseth
25%
Karoline Leavitt
24%
Lee Zeldin
24%
John Ratcliffe
23%
Tom Homan
18%

Probability over time

last 30 days
50%Dan Scavino · +15 pts over period64%

What this means

Across 16 outcomes, the market's favourite is Dan Scavino at 65%. Because these are separate markets, probabilities need not sum to exactly 100%.

How this resolves

This market will resolve to “Yes” if it is announced that that the listed individual will leave the Trump Administration, or otherwise ceases to be a member of administration by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. An announcement of the listed individual's resignation/removal before this market's end date will immediately resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of when the announced resignation/removal goes into effect. The Trump administration includes individuals formally appointed by Donald Trump to roles within the U.S. federal government, such as Cabinet members, Executive Office staff, senior policy advisors, ambassadors, or White House staff whose appointments are publicly announced by official government channels. The primary resolution source will be official information from the Trump administration, however a consensus of credible r…

Resolves: Dec 31, 2026

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