Skip to content
PoliticsPoliticsTrump

Who will leave Trump Administration before 2027?

16 outcomes · ranked

$1.4M traded
Russell Vought
38%
Howard Lutnick
30%
Susie Wiles
30%
Dan Scavino
29%
Robert F. Kennedy Jr.
28%
Kash Patel
27%
Tom Homan
27%
Pete Hegseth
25%
David Sacks
24%
Kristi Noem
22%
Markwayne Mullin
20%
Lee Zeldin
18%

Probability over time

last 30 days
31%Russell Vought · +7 pts over period38%

What this means

Across 16 outcomes, the market's favourite is Russell Vought at 38%. Because these are separate markets, probabilities need not sum to exactly 100%.

How this resolves

This market will resolve to “Yes” if it is announced that that the listed individual will leave the Trump Administration, or otherwise ceases to be a member of administration by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. An announcement of the listed individual's resignation/removal before this market's end date will immediately resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of when the announced resignation/removal goes into effect. The Trump administration includes individuals formally appointed by Donald Trump to roles within the U.S. federal government, such as Cabinet members, Executive Office staff, senior policy advisors, ambassadors, or White House staff whose appointments are publicly announced by official government channels. The primary resolution source will be official information from the Trump administration, however a consensus of credible r…

Resolves: Dec 31, 2026

More in Politics