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Which parties will be in next Swedish Government?

9 outcomes · ranked

$230K traded
Swedish Social Democratic Party (S)
79%
Green Party (MP)
69%
Centre Party (C)
53%
Left Party (V)
24%
Christian Democrats (KD)
20%
Liberals (L)
20%
Moderate Party (M)
19%
Sweden Democrats (SD)
8%
Citizens' Coalition (MED)
0%

Probability over time

last 30 days
77%Swedish Social Democratic Party (S) · +2 pts over period79%

What this means

Across 9 outcomes, the market's favourite is Swedish Social Democratic Party (S) at 79%. Because these are separate markets, probabilities need not sum to exactly 100%.

How this resolves

Parliamentary elections are scheduled to be held in Sweden on September 13, 2026. This market will resolve to “Yes” if the listed political party is included in the first Swedish government formed after the 2026 Swedish parliamentary elections. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. This market may resolve once the composition of the first Swedish government following the 2026 parliamentary elections is officially confirmed and that government has formally taken office. A party will only be considered part of the coalition if it provides at least one cabinet minister. Parties that merely support the government (e.g., through confidence-and-supply arrangements, parliamentary support agreements, or similar) without holding a cabinet post will not qualify. If no government is formed, or the results are not known definitively by January 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resol…

Closed Sep 14, 2026 · awaiting resolution

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