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Trump declares election interference national emergency by...?

Unlikely

$396K traded

Probability over time

last 30 days
23%Yes · +5 pts over period28%

What this means

Traders currently price this at 28% — the market's collective estimate that it happens. The market leans toward no. The odds have been broadly stable over the last week.

How this resolves

This market will resolve to “Yes” if President Donald Trump formally declares a national emergency, pursuant to the National Emergencies Act, explicitly relating to interference in U.S. elections or election processes, by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No.” A qualifying declaration must include formal language stating that a national emergency exists and must be issued under the National Emergencies Act (50 U.S.C. § 1621 et seq.). The declaration must explicitly reference interference in U.S. elections, election processes, election systems, voting procedures, ballots, or voting machines as the basis for the emergency. Statements, speeches, social media posts, draft orders, executive orders that do not formally declare a national emergency under the National Emergencies Act, or other actions that merely reference election interference without decl…

Resolves: Jan 1, 2027

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