French election called by...?
7%chance of yes
Probability over time
last 30 daysWhat this means
Traders currently price this at 7% — the market's collective estimate that it happens. The market leans toward no. The odds have been broadly stable over the last week.
How this resolves
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the date of the next French parlimentary election is declared by December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". For this market to resolve to "Yes" it is only necessary that the election date be declared, not that the election actually occur within the market timeframe. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the government of the France, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
Resolves: Jan 1, 2027
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