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Which companies will have a #1 AI model by December 31?

14 outcomes · ranked

$120K traded
OpenAI
35%
Google
20%
xAI
13%
Meta
13%
Alibaba
13%
Moonshot
11%
Z.ai
9%
ByteDance
8%
Amazon
8%
DeepSeek
8%
Microsoft
8%
Baidu
7%

Probability over time

last 30 days
19%OpenAI · +16 pts over period35%

What this means

Across 14 outcomes, the market's favourite is OpenAI at 35%. Because these are separate markets, probabilities need not sum to exactly 100%.

How this resolves

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the listed company has the highest arena rank based on the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard (https://lmarena.ai/) by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No." Results from the "Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text with style control off will be used to resolve this market. If a listed model ties for #1 Arena rank, it will suffice to resolve this market to "Yes." The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve based on another resolution source.

Resolves: Dec 31, 2026

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