Will Apple release a foldable iPhone before 2027?
Probability over time
last 30 daysWhat this means
Traders currently price this at 86% — the market's collective estimate that it happens. The market leans toward yes, though it's far from settled. Over the last 7 days the odds moved -6 pts.
How this resolves
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Apple officially releases a foldable iPhone by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". In order to be considered released, the product must be available for purchase by the general public within the specified timeframe. An announcement or unveiling alone is not sufficient. A qualifying release of a foldable smartphone by Apple will count even if it is not explicitly branded an iPhone. The primary resolution source for this market will be official statements from Apple. However, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.