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Which airlines will announce bankruptcy by December 31?

5 outcomes · ranked

$156K traded
Frontier Airlines
10%
JetBlue
7%
Allegiant
3%
Alaska Airlines
2%
American Airlines
2%

Probability over time

last 30 days
8%Frontier Airlines · +2 pts over period10%

What this means

Across 5 outcomes, the market's favourite is Frontier Airlines at 10%. Because these are separate markets, probabilities need not sum to exactly 100%.

How this resolves

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the named airline announces that it will file for bankruptcy or has filed for bankruptcy of any variety by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. An announcement will suffice for a "Yes" resolution, regardless of if or when the actual filing occurs. The announcement must be made through any of their official or verified channels, as a recorded or written statement by their CEO, legal representation, or other individual or team which officially represents the company. A definitive consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

Resolves: Jan 1, 2027

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