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Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by December 31?

Unlikely

-5 pts$1.6M traded

Probability over time

last 30 days
20%Yes · -9 pts over period11%

What this means

Traders currently price this at 11% — the market's collective estimate that it happens. The market leans toward no. Over the last 7 days the odds moved -5 pts.

How this resolves

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Iran publicly agrees to end all enrichment of uranium by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. An official pledge by Iran to end all enrichment of Uranium will qualify for a “Yes” resolution whether as a unilateral announcement or part of an agreement with the U.S. or Israel. Any agreement or pledge made before the resolution date of this market will qualify, regardless of if/when the agreement goes into effect. An agreement by Iran to end all enrichment of uranium for any amount of time will count. An agreement by Iran to end all enrichment of uranium as a precondition of a more comprehensive peace process or deal will qualify, even if the agreement is not finalized or part of a formalized peace deal. Agreements to merely limit or cap the level or quality of enrichment—such as reducing enrichment to below …

Resolves: Dec 31, 2026

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